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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--October 3

Oct 03, 2012

Wednesday, October 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is generally quiet Wednesday morning. There
was some more weak economic data coming out of China
overnight, as the Chinese non-manufacturing purchasing
managers index fell in September, while consumer sentiment
also weakened last month. Meantime, retail sales data in the
17 countries of the Euro zone rose slightly in August, for
the fourth straight monthly gain. China is on holiday this
week, celebrating Golden Week. Later this week there will be
some more important U.S. economic data released, including
the FOMC minutes on Thursday and the employment report on
Friday. The market place will also monitor the U.S.
presidential debate Wednesday night. In Europe, the European
Central Bank and Bank of England hold meetings Thursday. The
Bank of Japan holds its monthly meeting Thursday and Friday.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the
weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national
employment report, the ISM non-manufacturing report, the
weekly DOE energy stocks report and the global services
PMI.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of
1,451.20 and then at last week’s high of 1,456.60. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at Tuesday’s low of 1,433.00
and then at last week’s low of 1,424.50. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at Tuesday’s high of 2,807.75 and then
at this week’s high of 2,822.50. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 2,788.00 and then at this
week’s low of 2,777.75. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Tuesday’s low of 13,355 and then at last week’s
low of 13,290. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 13,450 and then at Tuesday’s high of 13,490.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer today as bulls
still have some upside near-term technical momentum.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s
high of 150 9/32 and then at 150 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 149 23/32 and then at
149 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
still have some momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at last week’s high of 133.27.0 and then at
134.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
133.18.5 and then at Tuesday’s low of 133.12.5. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading today, on tepid short covering in a bear market.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 80.06 and then at this
week’s high of 80.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 79.79 and then at this week’s low of 79.55.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bulls and bears are
presently on an overall level near-term technical playing
field. In November Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside
just above resistance at the overnight high of $91.82 and
then at $92.50. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at $91.00 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading. The grain market
bulls are fading amid harvest pressure and weakening
worldwide demand for grains at higher price levels. It’s my
bias that all three major grains have put in major tops.
Even if market tops are in place that does not
automatically suggest downtrends will develop. More likely
is choppy and sideways trading action, with just a slight
downside bias.

 

 

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