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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 14

Sep 14, 2012

Friday, September 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Many markets are still feeling the bullish glow in the
aftermath of the U.S. Federal Reserve expanding its balance
sheet by Thursday announcing another round of quantitative
easing of monetary policy—nicknamed QE3. However, there is a
heavy slate of U.S. economic data due for release Friday
that could move markets and turn attention away from the
Fed’s actions. In overnight news, Asian and European stocks
rose and the Euro currency hit a fresh four-month high in
the aftermath of the Fed’s QE3 announcement Thursday.
European Union finance ministers were meeting Friday in
Cyprus to discuss the EU debt crisis and bailout status of
troubled EU countries. The European Central Bank denied
reports that it is in talks with the International Monetary
Fund on a fresh bailout package for Greece. An IMF official
said Thursday Greece does need another bailout. Also,
reports said the ECB lent heavily to Irish banks in August.-
-Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices poked to a fresh 4.5-year high
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,465.00 and then at
1,475.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at the
overnight low of 1,450.30 and then at 1,440.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices poked to a fresh 11-year high
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
2,850.00 and then at 2,865.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 2,820.50 and then at 2,800.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh four-year high overnight.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
13,450 and then at 13,400. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at 13,550 and then at 13,600.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh four-month low
overnight and the bulls are fading badly. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at 146 16/32 and then at 147 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 145 19/32 and
then at 145 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
132.16.0 and then at the overnight high of 132.30.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.01.0 and
then at Thursday’s low of 131.27.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early
U.S. trading and hit another fresh four-month low. Bears
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage
as a seven-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily
bar chart. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 79.00 and then at the overnight high of 79.41.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 78.85
and then at 78.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are solidly higher early today. Prices hit
a fresh 4.5-month high and pushed above what was major
psychological resistance at $100.00 a barrel overnight.
Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
In October Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at the overnight high of $100.42 and then
at $101.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at $99.00 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading. The key “outside
markets” are solidly bullish for the grains early today, as
the U.S. dollar index is lower and crude oil prices are
higher. Corn bulls have faded recently but bean bulls have
the power to suggest new highs are in the offing. Wheat
trading remains choppy at higher levels.
 

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