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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 18

Sep 18, 2012

Tuesday, September 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, European stock markets declined amid an
apparent reluctance of Spain to ask for more financial
bailout assistance from the European Union. There was a
successful auction of Spanish short-term debt overnight,
with yields lower and demand decent. A Spanish auction of
longer-term debt later this week will be a bigger test,
however. There was a positive economic report coming out of
Germany, as the ZEW economic expectations reading was the
strongest in five months. Asian stock markets were weaker on
position evening ahead of important economic data coming out
of China on Thursday. There were also anti-Japanese
demonstrations in China that unsettled the market place in
Asia. The Bank of Japan started a two-day meeting, at which
the BOJ may introduce some fresh monetary stimulus. U.S.
economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly
Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook chain store sales reports,
the international trade balance, Treasury international
capital flows, and the NAHB housing index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are seeing mild profit taking after
hitting a 4.5-year high last Friday. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
overnight high of 1,456.20 and then at last week’s high of
1,467.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at
1,440.00 and then at 1,428.50. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are seeing mild profit taking
after hitting an 11-year high last Friday. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-
day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at last Friday’s high
of 2,859.25 and then at 2,875.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at the overnight low of 2,838.25 and then at
2,820.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are seeing mild profit taking after
hitting a four-year high last Friday. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 13,400 and then at
13,350. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 13,465 and then at Monday’s high of 13,515.
Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today,
as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are seeing some short covering
after hitting a four-month low on Monday. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 146
4/32 and then at 146 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 145 14/32 and then at 145 even. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Short covering is featured early
this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 132.12.0 and then at 132.16.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 132.00.0 and then at last week’s
low of 131.23.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading today, on short covering in a bear market. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a
two-month-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar
chart. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 79.29 and then at 79.41.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.03
and then at Monday’s low of 78.835. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today on some
follow-through selling pressure from the late, big sell off
Monday afternoon. Bulls have faded. In October Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $97.23 and then at $98.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of
$95.96 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Soybeans were
solidly lower, corn weaker and wheat firmer. Profit taking
from recent gains is a feature early this week. Soybean
bulls are fading. With harvest pressure occurring in corn
and soybeans, there are ideas market tops in the grain
futures are in place. Focus is now more on the demand
prospects for U.S. grain, now that traders are getting a
somewhat better handle on the U.S. supply.
 

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