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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--September 5

Sep 05, 2012

Wednesday, September 5--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is focused on Thursday’s monthly meeting of
the European Central Bank. It’s expected the ECB will
announce a fresh EU monetary stimulus plan, which would
likely be at least initially commodity and stock market
bullish. ECB President Mario Draghi said Tuesday his central
bank’s purchase of short-dated government bonds is within
the bank’s mandate. Then on Friday the important U.S. jobs
report is released. Many believe a weak jobs report on
Friday would open the door wide for a fresh monetary
stimulus announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve at its
FOMC meeting in two weeks. In overnight news there was more
weak economic data released from Europe Wednesday. The
German PMI services report for August was weaker than
expected. The Euro zone services PMI for August came in
weaker, too. Many economists believe the European Union is
headed for a recession.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,406.20 and then at last week’s high of 1,415.90. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at last week’s low of
1,395.40 and then at 1,385.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,775.50 and then at last
week’s high of 2,795.75. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
the overnight low of 2,757.00 and then at last week’s low of
2,745.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 13,000 and then at Tuesday’s low of 12,965. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Tuesday’s high of 13,084 and then at 13,125. Shorter-term
moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls still have some upside near-
term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 151 24/32 and then at Monday’s high of 151
29/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 150
30/32 and then at 150 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this
week’s and last week’s high of 133.26.5 and then at
134.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
133.12.0 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S.
trading, on short covering. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage as a six-week-old downtrend
line is in place on the daily bar chart. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 81.95 and then at last week’s high of
82.13. Shorter-term support is seen at 81.50 and then at
last week’s low of 81.30. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. In October Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
the overnight high of $95.62 and then at $96.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low
of $94.71 and then at last week’s low of $93.95. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading, on some profit-
taking pressure and amid mildly bearish “outside markets”—a
firmer U.S. dollar index and weaker crude oil prices. Grain
market bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. While the major U.S. drought continues
to be a bullish underlying factor for the grains, focus is
now less on the reduced supply and more on the demand
prospects with the sharply higher grain prices.
 

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