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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report -- March 11

Mar 11, 2013

Monday, March 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, Italian bond yields rose Monday after the
Fitch ratings agency late Friday downgraded the country’s
credit rating. That news helped to pressure European stock
markets Monday. However, the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development issued a report that said the
European Union will see improving economic conditions in the
coming months. However, the OECD projected weaker economic
growth in China, Canada and India in the coming months.
Meantime, fresh economic data from China was downbeat, as
weekend figures showed the inflation rate rose to 3.2% in
February from 2.0% in January, on an annualized basis. That
prompted worries Chinese monetary officials could move to
tighten monetary policy. Industrial production and retail
sales data for China were also weaker than expected. U.S.
economic data due for release Monday is light and includes
the employment trends index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today but hovering
near a five-year high. The bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
Friday’s high of 1,550.10 and then at 1,560.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at Friday’s low of 1,535.60
and then at 1,524.60. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early trading but
hovering near a five-month high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,800.00 and
then at Friday’s high of 2,817.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at 2,788.00 and then at 2,775.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today and hovering near
last week’s all-time record high. The bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at Friday’s low of
14,265 and then at 14,200. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at Friday’s record high of 14,340
and then at 14,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish
early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering after hitting a contract low on Friday. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 141 8/32 and then
at 141 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 140 22/32 and then at Friday’s contract low of 140
14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering after prices Friday hit a three-week low. Bears
have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 130.12.5 and then
at 130.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 130.02.5 and then at Friday’s low of
130.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. The greenback
bulls still have the near-term technical advantage as prices
hover not far below Friday’s seven-month high. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
Friday’s high of 83.160 and then at 83.250. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 82.910 and then at
82.795. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. In April
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at last week’s high of $92.03 and then at $92.50.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at $91.00
and then at $90.22. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight on more short covering. Last
Friday’s USDA supply and demand report was deemed mostly
neutral but slightly supportive for corn. The soybean
market bulls are hanging tough but there is still overhead
technical resistance just above the market. The corn market
bulls showed some strength late last week but need to show
that important follow-through strength this week. Meantime,
the wheat market bulls remain very weak, which is also
keeping a lid on price strength in corn and soybeans.

 

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