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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Monday, February 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

Feb 13, 2012

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It's a "risk on" trading day in the market place early
Monday, as the U.S. stock indexes, crude oil and gold are
higher and the U.S. dollar index is weaker following news
that the Greek government has passed austerity measures
that will allow Greece to qualify for the latest bailout
funds. However, protesting and rioting in the streets of
Athens have somewhat blunted that bullish news.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the July 2011
high of 1,354.50 and then at 1,365.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,343.00
and then at Friday's low of 1,333.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices poked to another fresh 11-year
high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,569.50 and then at
2,580.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 2,553.25 and then at Friday's low of 2,535.25. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,800 and then more stops just below support at
12,750. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at last week's high of 12,880 and then at 12,900.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Trading has turned choppy. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
support lies at Friday's low of 141 20/32 and then at 141
even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high
of 142 16/32 and then at 143 even. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Trading has turned choppy. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.07.5 and then
at Friday's high of 131.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 130.28.5 and then at last week's low
of 130.18.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. Bears
still have some downside technical momentum. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 79.08 and then at Friday's high of
79.31. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
78.71 and then at last week's low of 78.43. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading higher early today. Prices are
still in a gentle five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart, but now just barely. In March crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at last week's high of
$100.18 and then at $101.00. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $99.00 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading. The key "outside
markets" are bullish for the grains today, as the U.S.
dollar index is weaker while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes are higher. Still, the seasonal "February Break"
price weakness in the grains may now be occurring.

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