Thursday, Aug. 18--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
Aug 18, 2011
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
World stock markets are under pressure again today as the European Union debt crisis is again on the front burner of the market place. Importantly, the U.S. stock indexes remain the risk investment gauge of the market place. Lower U.S. stock indexes mean limited buying interest in most raw commodity futures markets and more investor demand for gold and U.S. Treasuries.
--Jim
STOCK INDEXES
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 139 27/32 and then at 140 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 138 even and then at the overnight low of 137 26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 131.01.0 and then at 131.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.07.5 and then at 130.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today, on short covering in a bear market. Dollar index bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 74.31 and then at 74.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 73.81 and then at Wednesday's low of 73.51. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are trading lower today. The recent short-covering bounce from the recent strong sell off still suggests a near-term bottom is in place. In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $87.00 and then at the overnight high of $87.53. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $84.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading as investor risk appetite has pulled back amid the EU debt concerns and as the key "outside markets" are bearish for the grains early today, as the U.S. dollar index is firmer, and the U.S. stock indexes and crude oil are lower.
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,189.90 and then at this week's high of 1,201.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,162.60 and then at 1,150.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 3.0
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,150.00 and then at the overnight high of 2,175.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 2,121.00 and then at 2,100.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,150 and then more stops just below support at 11,100. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 11,250 and then at 11,300. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.0
