Sep 22, 2014
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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Thursday, July 6--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

Jul 05, 2012

Note: I am out of the office this morning. My friend and fellow
analyst/trader Ken Seehusen produced my morning report. Ken's style
is a bit different than mine, but I think you'll also benefit from Ken's
work.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the
rally off last Thursday’s low. Stochastics and the RSI overbought but
are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. Monday’s close above June’s high crossing at 2628.25 have
renew the rally off June’s low opening the door for a possible test of
the May 4th gap crossing at 2686.50 later this month. Closes below
the 20-day moving average crossing at 2574.56 would temper the
near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high
crossing at 2652.25. Second resistance is the May 4th gap crossing at
2686.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at
2589.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at
2574.56.

The September S&P 500 index was higher in overnight trading as it
extends the rally off June’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
September extends the rally off June’s low, May’s high crossing at
1395.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 1334.87 would confirm that a short-term top has
been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1373.20.
Second resistance is May’s high crossing at 1395.50. First support is
the 10-day moving average crossing at 1342.07. Second support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 1334.80.

INTEREST RATES
September T-bonds were higher in overnight trading while extending
June’s trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish
signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes
below the reaction low crossing at 146-28 are needed to confirm a
downside breakout of June’s trading range while opening the door for
additional weakness near-term. If September turns higher, June’s high
crossing at 152-19 is the next upside target. First resistance is the
reaction high crossing at 150-09. Second resistance is June’s high
crossing at 152-19. First support is the reaction low crossing at 147-
21. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 146-28.

ENERGY MARKETS
August crude oil was higher overnight as it extended the rally off last
Thursday’s low. Rising tensions with Iran in the Mid-East along with
news that Statoil ASA (STL) said it was preparing to shut down
production on the Norwegian continental shelf as a labor dispute
escalates supported overnight gains. Stochastics and the RSI are
overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices
are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June’s low, the
38% retracement level of this year’s decline crossing at 90.43 is the
next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing
at 82.79 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in August crude
oil. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of this year’s decline
crossing at 90.43. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of
this year’s decline crossing at 94.45. First support is the 10-day
moving average crossing at 82.79. Second support is June’s low
crossing at 77.28.

CURRENCIES
The September Dollar was lower in overnight trading. Stochastics and
the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible
near-term. If September extends last Friday’s decline, June’s low
crossing at 81.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-
day moving average crossing at 82.40 would temper the near-term
bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average
crossing at 82.40. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at
83.07. First support it last Friday’s low crossing at 81.56. Second
support is June’s low crossing at 81.39.

GRAINS
Grains remain closed overnight due to the July 4th holiday and will
open up at 9:30 AM CST. this morning. Here is a recap of Tuesday’s
trade.

September corn closed higher on Tuesday and above the 75%
retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 6.68 3/4 as it
extends the rally off May’s low. The high-range close sets the stage for
a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
September extends this month’s rally, the 87% retracement level of
the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 6.95 3/4 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.71 1/4 would
confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is
today’s high crossing at 6.75 1/4. Second resistance is the 87%
retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 6.95 3/4. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.08 3/4. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.71 1/4.
September wheat closed up 26 3/4-cents at 7.99 1/4.

September wheat closed higher on Tuesday and above the 50%
retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 7.85 as it
extended the rally off May’s low. The high-range close sets the stage
for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s session begins trading.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish
signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
September extends the rally off June’s low, the 62% retracement level
of the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 8.27 is the next upside target.
Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.90 1/2 are
needed to confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is
today’s high crossing at 8.00 3/4. Second resistance is the 62%
retracement level of the 2011-2012-decline crossing at 8.27. First
support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.36 1/4. Second
support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.90 1/2.

SOYBEANS
September soybeans closed up 35 1/2-cents at 14.98.
September soybeans closed higher on Tuesday as it extends this
year’s rally due to bullish weather concerns. The high-range close sets
the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s session
begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain
bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.
If September extends this year’s rally, weekly resistance crossing at
15.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving
average crossing at 13.93 would confirm that a top has been posted.
First resistance is today’s high crossing at 15.00 3/4. Second
resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 15.45. First support is the
10-day moving average crossing at 14.31 1/2. Second support is the
20-day moving average crossing at 13.93.

 

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