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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Thursday Evening, October 6

Oct 07, 2011

Questions? Just email me. I
enjoy hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click here for "Today's Hot Market" item on my
website.

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's
significant developments in the U.S. futures
markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down
$0.25 at $122.40 today. Prices closed near the
session high today. Mild profit taking was seen
today. Cattle bulls still have the near-term
technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at this week's
high of $123.75. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at
$120.00. First resistance is seen at $123.00 and
then at $123.75. First support is seen at today's
low of $121.75 and then at this week's low of
$121.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

November feeder cattle closed down $0.17 at $141.57
today. Prices closed near the session high today.
Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close
prices above technical resistance at the contract
high of $145.90. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to push and close prices
below solid technical support at $140.00. First
resistance is seen at $142.00 and then at $142.50.
First support is seen at today's low of $140.95 and
then at this week's low of $140.20. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

December lean hogs closed up $0.80 at $89.22 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit
another fresh two-month high. The key "outside
markets" were bullish for the hog market again
today as crude oil was sharply higher, the U.S.
stock indexes firmer, and the U.S. dollar index
lower. Hog bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at $90.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at
this week's low of $86.45. First resistance is seen
at today's high of $89.25 and then at $90.00. First
support is seen at $88.50 and then at today's low
of $88.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed steady at
$6.05 1/2 today. Prices closed near the session
low. The corn market could get no traction today
from solid weekly USDA export sales data and
bullish key "outside markets"--crude oil was
sharply higher, the U.S. stock indexes firmer, and
the U.S. dollar index lower. That's a bearish near-
term clue for corn. Serious near-term technical
damage has been inflicted in corn recently. A steep
five-week-old downtrend is still in place on the
daily chart. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $6.20. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
this week's low of $5.72 1/4. First resistance for
December corn is seen at $6.10 and then at today's
high of $6.17. First support is seen at $6.00 and
then at $5.91. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

November soybeans closed steady at $11.63 3/4 a
bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session low
again today. Tepid short covering in a bear market
was seen today. The key "outside markets" were
again bullish for the soybean market today as crude
oil was sharply higher, the U.S. stock indexes
firmer, and the U.S. dollar index lower. Yet, bean
bulls could get no traction from the outside
markets today. That's a bearish near-term technical
clue. Serious near-term chart damage has occurred
in soybeans recently. Prices are still in a steep
five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The
next near-term upside technical breakout objective
for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
November prices above psychological resistance at
$12.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below psychological support at $11.00. First
resistance is seen at $11.74 and then at this
week's high of $11.89 3/4. First support is seen at
this week' low of $11.52 and then at $11.40.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December soybean meal closed down $1.10 at $304.10
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today. Serious near-term technical damage has been
inflicted recently. Bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a steep five-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above technical resistance at
$320.00. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $300.00. First
resistance comes in at $307.50 and then at today's
high of $310.10. First support is seen at today's
low of $303.50 and then at this week's low of
$301.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December bean oil closed down 6 points at 49.14
cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low
again today. The key "outside markets" were bullish
for the bean oil market today as crude oil was
sharply higher, the U.S. stock indexes firmer, and
the U.S. dollar index lower. But the bean oil bulls
could not get much traction today, and that's a
bearish near-term clue. Bean oil bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean
oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 51.00 cents. Bean oil
bears' next downside technical price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at 47.50 cents. First resistance
is seen at 49.50 cents and then at today's high of
50.00 cents. First support is seen at this week's
low of 48.90 cents and then at 48.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5

December Chicago SRW wheat closed down 9 1/4 cents
at $6.16 today. Prices closed near the session low
today. The key "outside markets" were bullish for
the wheat market again today as crude oil was
sharply higher, the U.S. stock indexes firmer, and
the U.S. dollar index lower. Yet, wheat sold off
anyway, which is a bearish near-term technical
clue. Serious chart damage has been inflicted in
wheat recently. Wheat bears have the near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and
close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical
resistance at $6.50 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below major
psychological support at $6.00. First resistance is
seen at $6.28 and then at today's high of $6.39
3/4. First support lies at $6.07 1/4 and then at
this week's low of $5.96 3/4. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed down 2 cents at
$6.97 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session
low today. Serious near-term chart damage has been
inflicted recently. Bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $7.20.
The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at
today's high of $7.09 and then at $7.20. First
support is seen at $6.93 1/2 and then at this
week's low of $6.79. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December oats closed down 1/2 cent at $3.24 1/2
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears
have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
chart support at $3.10. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $3.50. First
support lies at today's low of $3.22 1/4 and then
at this week's low of $3.20. First resistance is
seen at today's high of $3.29 and then at $3.30.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 9 points at 24.71
cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today. Sugar prices are still in a six-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. A bearish
symmetrical triangle pattern has formed on the
daily bar chart. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at last week's
high of 26.44 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices
below solid technical support at the September low
of 24.01 cents. First resistance is seen at 25.00
cents and then at 25.29 cents. First support is
seen at today's low of 24.51 cents and then at this
week's low of 24.31 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0

December coffee closed up 810 points at 235.80
cents. Prices closed near the session high today
and saw more short covering in a bear market. The
key "outside markets" were bullish for the coffee
market again today as crude oil was sharply higher,
the U.S. stock indexes firmer, and the U.S. dollar
index lower. Serious near-term chart damage has
occurred in coffee recently. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The coffee
bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at last
week's high of 246.55 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at this week's
low of 219.80 cents a pound. First resistance is
seen at today's high of 236.10 cents and then at
240.00 cents. First support is seen at 232.50 cents
and then at 230.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5

December cocoa closed up $56 at $2,678 a ton.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw
more short covering in a bear market. A bullish
"key reversal" up on the daily bar chart has
occurred this week. The cocoa bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $2,750. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at
this week's contract low of $2,540. First
resistance is seen at today's high of $2,685 and
then at $2,700. First support is seen at $2,650 and
then at today's low of $2,610. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

December cotton closed up 43 points at 102.73 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range in more quiet
trading today. The key "outside markets" were
bullish for the cotton market again today as crude
oil was sharply higher, the U.S. stock indexes
firmer, and the U.S. dollar index lower. But the
cotton bulls still could not get much traction from
them. Cotton bulls and bears are on a level near-
term technical playing field. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above
solid technical resistance at 105.00 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the
cotton bears is to push prices below solid
technical support at the July low of 93.20 cents.
First support is seen at 100.00 and then at last
week's low of 98.21 cents. First resistance is seen
at today's high of 103.50 cents and then at 105.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

November orange juice closed up 145 points at
$1.5480 today. Prices closed near mid-range today
and saw more short covering in a bear market. The
FCOJ bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $1.6000.
The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the contract low of $1.4295.
First resistance is seen at today's high of $1.5660
and then at $1.5800. First support is seen at
today's low of $1.5305 and then at $1.5000.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

November lumber futures closed up $8.90 at $226.60
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and saw solid short covering in a bear market.
While the bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, the bulls did gain some fresh
upside technical momentum today to begin to suggest
a near-term market low is in place. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the
lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the contract low of
$211.10. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $235.00. First
resistance is seen at today's high of $227.40 and
then at $230.00. First support is seen at today's
low of $223.70 and then at $220.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $9.90 an
ounce at $1,651.50 today. Prices closed near the
session high today. The key "outside markets" were
bullish for gold again today, as the U.S. dollar
index was lower and crude oil prices were solidly
higher. Trading has been choppy in the gold market
recently. Gold market bears still have the slight
near-term technical advantage. A bearish pennant
pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Prices
are also still in a four-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside technical
objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $1,705.40. Bears' next
near-term downside price objective is closing
prices below strong technical support at the
September low of $1,535.00. First resistance is
seen at today's high of $1,656.80 and then at this
week's high of $1,681.50. First support is seen at
today's low of $1,633.20 and then at $1,625.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

December silver futures closed up $1.523 an ounce
at $31.875 today. Prices closed near the session
high again today. The key "outside markets" were
bullish for silver today, as the U.S. dollar index
was lower and crude oil prices were solidly higher.
Silver prices are still in a six-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. A bearish pennant pattern
has also formed on the daily bar chart for silver.
Silver bulls' next upside price objective is
producing a close above strong technical resistance
at last week's high of $33.585 an ounce. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
September low of $26.15. First resistance is seen
at today's high of $32.07 and then at $32.50. Next
support is seen at $31.50 and then at $31.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 1,515 points 325.75
cents today. Prices closed near the session high
again today and saw more short covering in a bear
market. The key "outside markets" were again
bullish for copper today, as the U.S. dollar index
was lower and crude oil prices were solid higher.
Still, serious near-term chart damage has occurred
in copper recently. Copper bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage as a two-
month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar
chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 350.00 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 300.00 cents.
First resistance is seen at today's high of 327.20
cents and then at 330.00 cents. First support is
seen at 322.500 cents and then at 320.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

*. ENERGIES: November crude oil closed up $2.85 a
barrel at $82.53 today. Prices closed near the
session high today and saw more short covering.
Firmer U.S. stock indexes and a lower U.S. dollar
index helped to boost the crude oil bulls again
today. Now, technical odds suggest a near-term
market low is in place. The crude oil bulls and
bears are now on a level near-term technical
playing field. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close above solid technical resistance
at $85.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at
this week's low of $74.95. First resistance is seen
at today's high of $82.90 and then at $84.00. First
support is seen at $82.00 and then at $81.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

November heating oil closed up 798 points at
$2.8564 today. Prices closed near the session high
again today on more short covering. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage, but
the bulls did gain some upside momentum today. A
bullish weekly high close on Friday would suggest a
near-term market low is in place. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $2.9500. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is producing
a close below solid technical support at this
week's low of $2.6975. First resistance lies at
today's high of $2.8640 and then at $2.9000. First
support is seen at $2.8250 and then at $2.8000.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 1,108
points at $2.6800. Prices closed nearer the session
high today and saw short covering. Bulls gained
upside momentum today and a bullish double-bottom
reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart.
Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term
technical playing field. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $2.7500. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at $2.5000. First
resistance is seen at today's high of $2.6917 and
then at $2.7250. First support is seen at $2.6500
and then at $2.6250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

November natural gas closed up 2.3 cents at $3.593
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and did hit another fresh contract low early on.
Tepid short covering in a bear market was featured.
The bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week's high of
$3.926. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at $3.50. First resistance is
seen at this week's high of $3.699 and then at
$3.80. First support is seen at today's contract
low of $3.512 and then at $3.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed up 79 points at 1.3430 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw
more short covering in a bear market. Prices today
did score a bullish "outside day" up on the daily
bar chart. However, bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in
a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.
Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 1.3500. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid chart support at 1.3000. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today's high of
1.3445 and then at 1.3500. Next support is seen at
1.3350 and then at 1.3300. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.0

The December Japanese yen closed steady at 1.3049
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Trading
remains choppy at higher price levels. Bulls still
have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the contract high of 1.3180. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at the September low of
1.2860. First resistance is seen at this week's
high of 1.3086 and then at 1.3100. First support is
seen at today's low of 1.3025 and then at 1.2988.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The December Swiss franc closed up 33 points at
1.0874 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today after hitting a fresh 6.5-month low early on.
Tepid short covering in a bear market was featured.
Bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1.1250. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 1.0500. First
resistance is seen at today's high of 1.0902 and
then at 1.0956. First support is seen at today's
low of 1.0749 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0.

The December Australian dollar closed up 97 points
at .9663 today. Prices closed nearer the session
high today and saw more short covering in a bear
market. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are still in a five-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at .9800. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at
this week's low of .9302. First resistance is seen
at today's high of .9684 and then at .9750. Next
support is seen at .9600 and then at today's low of
.9539. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

The December Canadian dollar closed up 51 points at
.9625 today. Prices closed near the session high
today and saw more short covering in a bear market.
Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are still in a nine-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at last week's high of
.9839. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at this week's low of .9367.
First resistance is seen at today's high of .9628
and then at .9700. First support is seen at .9600
and then at today's low of .9523. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0.

The December British pound closed down 19 points at
1.5439 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today after hitting a fresh contract low early on
today. The bears today did appear to become
exhausted at the lower price levels as prices
rebounded well off the session low by the close.
Bears have the near-term technical advantage as
prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart. However, the pound has rebounded and
began to trend higher at these low levels in recent
history. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week's high of 1.5706.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at today's
contract low of 1.5179. First resistance is seen at
today's high of 1.5493 and then at 1.5550. First
support is seen at 1.5316 and then at 1.5250.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

The December U.S. dollar index closed down 35
points at 79.03 today. Prices closed near the
session low today on profit taking from recent
gains. Prices did score a mildly bearish "outside
day" down on the daily bar chart today. The bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 81.00. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at
last week's low of 77.83. Next resistance lies at
79.50 and then at 80.00. First support is seen at
today's low of 78.93 and then at 78.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1 7/32 at 142
11/32 today. Prices closed near the session low
again today as investor risk appetite has creeped
back into the market place this week. But the bond
market bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. There are still no early clues
to suggest a market top is close at hand. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond
bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at last week's low of 139 26/32. The next
upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at
the contract high of 147 even. First resistance is
seen at 143 even and then at 144 even. First
support is seen at today's low of 142 6/32 and then
at 141 16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

December U.S. T Notes closed down 19.0 (32nds) at
129.16.5 today. Prices closed near the session low
today on more profit taking. Bulls still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls
is closing prices above solid resistance at the
contract high of 131.30.0. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a
close below solid technical support at 129.02.0.
First resistance is seen at 130.00.0 and then at
today's high of 130.11.0. First support is seen at
today's low of 129.14.0 and then at 129.02.0.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock
indexes closed higher and near their daily highs
again today. Bulls are gaining some fresh upside
near-term technical momentum. Look for higher
volatility on Friday morning, in the wake of the
key U.S. employment report. If all three stock
indexes drop and close below their August lows,
that would be extremely bearish for the stock
indexes and for most commodity markets. Bulls still
have heavy lifting to do in the near term to
suggest near-term price uptrends can be sustained.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 37.25 at
2,204.75 today. Prices closed nearer the session
high today. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the September high of 2,332.50. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at the August low of
1,972.25. First resistance is seen at today's high
of 2,213.75 and then at 2,250.00. First support is
seen at 2,175.00 and then at today's low of
2,148.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 22.60 at
1,157.60. Prices closed nearer the session high
today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at last
week's high of 1,189.80. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid support at this week's low of 1,068.50.
First resistance is seen at today's high of
1,160.50 and then at 1,180.00. First support is
seen at today's low of 1,129.20 and then at
1,100.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

The Dow futures closed up 208 points at 11,046
today. Prices closed near the session high today.
The next upside price objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at
11,286. The next downside price objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at this week's low of 10,745. First
resistance in the Dow lies at today's high of
11,060 and then at 11,100. First support is seen at
11,000 and then at 10,950. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new
customers and for an explanation of my Market
Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do
not manage any trading accounts other than my own
personal account. It is my goal to point out to you
potential trading opportunities. However, it is up
to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to
initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of
any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss
are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading
(and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures
and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE,
COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any
money in futures or options contracts, you should
consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial
payment to a broker. You should understand
commodity futures and options contracts and your
obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other
aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to
give you.

Jim Wyckoff

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