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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Tuesday, August 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

Aug 23, 2011

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The market place is now focused on Friday's speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. There is a growing belief by some, although certainly not all, that Bernanke's speech will lay out another round of monetary stimulus by the Fed. The commodity markets are being supported by the ideas Bernanke's speech will lay out more stimulus measures, which would be commodity market bullish and U.S. dollar bearish. The market place has also adopted a "risk back on" mentality Tuesday morning, as the U.S. stock indexes are higher.--Jim

STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,153.00 and then at 1,175.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday's low of 1,112.80 and then at 1,100.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,100.00 and then at 2,125.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,050.00 and then at the overnight low of 2,037.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,900 and then more stops just below support at 10,850. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 11,000 and then at Monday's high of 11,035. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 140 even and then at Monday's high of 140 25/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 138 24/32 and then at 138 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

 

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 130.21.0 and then at the contract high of 131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.00.0 and then at 129.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading today. Dollar index bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 74.28 and then at Monday's high of 74.57. Shorter-term support is seen at last week's low of 73.90 and then at 73.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 3.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading higher early today. Bulls are regaining a bit of upside technical momentum. In October crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $86.06 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $84.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading as the world stock and financial markets are a bit calmer this week. The other key "outside markets" are also bullish for the grains today--a lower U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil futures prices. The annual Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour this week is garnering keen trader attention. Grain market bulls have near-term technical momentum on their side.

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