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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Tuesday, October 11

Oct 11, 2011

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Recent price action in the U.S. stock indexes is suggesting
market lows are in place and that prices can work sideways
to higher into the end of the year. While there is likely
more dour economic news on the horizon, it appears the
markets have factored that scenario into their prices. This
will allow the markets to "climb a wall of worry." That
scenario would also be bullish for the commodity markets.--
Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high
of 1,192.00 and then at 1,200.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,175.00 and then at Monday’s low of
1,156.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,278.25 and
then at 2,300.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,262.25 and then at 2,250.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 11,300 and then more stops just below support at
11,250. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Monday’s high of 11,375 and then at 11,400.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term support lies at 140 even
and then at the overnight low of 139 13/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 140 18/32
and then at 141 even. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at the overnight high of 128.15.0 and then at
129.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 128.00.0 and then at
the overnight low of 127.26.5. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading
today. Bulls have faded badly recently and need to show more
power soon. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 78.19 and then
at 78.50. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of
77.67 and then at 77.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading slightly lower early today, on
a mild, corrective pullback from recent strong gains. The
bulls still have good upside technical momentum to suggest
prices can continue to trend sideways to higher in the near
term. In November crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at the overnight high of $85.70 and then at
Monday’s high of $86.09. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at the overnight low of $84.27 and then at
$84.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were mixed in overnight trading, with wheat and
soybeans higher and corn lower. The key "outside markets"
are in a mildly bearish posture for the grains this
morning, as the U.S. dollar index is firmer, while crude
oil and the U.S. stock indexes are weaker. It is looking
more like "harvest lows" are in place for the grains.
Traders are awaiting Wednesday morning’s USDA monthly
supply and demand report.

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