Examples of Howard Tyllas Daily Numbers & Hedge Ideas for 6-30-16 (Part 2)
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Corn Stocks Up 6 Percent from June 2015
Soybean Stocks Up 39 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Up 30 Percent
Corn stocks in all positions on June 1, 2016 totaled 4.72 billion bushels, up 6 percent from June 1, 2015. Of the totalstocks, 2.47 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 9 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 2.25 billion bushels,are up 3 percent from a year ago. The March - May 2016 indicated disappearance is 3.10 billion bushels, compared with3.30 billion bushels during the same period last year.
Soybeans stored in all positions on June 1, 2016 totaled 870 million bushels, up 39 percent from June 1, 2015. On-farmstocks totaled 281 million bushels, up 14 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 589 million bushels, are up55 percent from a year ago. Indicated disappearance for the March - May 2016 quarter totaled 661 million bushels, down5 percent from the same period a year earlier.
Old crop all wheat stored in all positions on June 1, 2016 totaled 981 million bushels, up 30 percent from a year ago.On-farm stocks are estimated at 197 million bushels, up 27 percent from last year. Off-farm stocks, at 784 million bushels,are up 31 percent from a year ago. The March - May 2016 indicated disappearance is 391 million bushels, up 1 percentfrom the same period a year earlier.
Statistical Methodology Survey Procedures:
The grain stocks estimates in this report are based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of June. Separate surveys are conducted to obtain the on-farm and off-farm estimates. The on-farm stocks survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of approximately 70,500 farm operators selected from a list of producers that ensures all operations in the United States have a chance to be selected. These producers are asked to provide the total quantities of grain stored on their operations as of June 1, 2016.
This includes all whole grains and oilseeds stored whether for feed, seed, or sale as well as any stored under a government program. The off-farm stocks survey is an enumeration of all known commercial grain storage facilities. This includes approximately 8,600 facilities with 11.0 billion bushels of storage capacity. An effort is made to obtain a report from all facilities. Reports of stock holdings are normally received from operations covering about 90 percent of the capacity. Estimates are made for missing facilities to make the survey complete.
Estimation Procedures: On-farm and off-farm survey data are reviewed at the State and National levels for reasonableness, consistency with historical estimates, and current crop size. After estimates are made for on-farm and off-farm stocks, the totals of these two are combined and evaluated using the balance sheet approach. This method utilizes other sources of data to check the reasonableness of the stocks estimates. Estimates of production, imports, exports, crushings, millings, and all other recorded uses of grains and oilseeds are reviewed to make sure beginning stocks, production, utilization, and ending stocks are within reasonable balance and present the best possible estimate of stocks.
Revision Policy: On-farm and off-farm stocks are subject to revision the quarter following initial publication and again in the following December 1 Grain Stocks report published in January each year. Revisions can be made when late reports are received, errors are detected in reporting and calculations, and production estimates are revised. Estimates will also be reviewed following the 5-year Census of Agriculture. No revisions to these years will be made after that date.
Reliability: Reliability of the on-farm and off-farm stocks must be treated separately because the survey designs for the two surveys are very different. The on-farm stocks estimates are subject to sampling variability because all operations holding on-farm stocks are not included in the sample. This variability, as measured by the relative standard error at the United States level, is approximately 2.8 percent for corn, 3.8 percent for soybeans, and 3.9 percent for all wheat.
This means that chances are approximately 95 out of 100 that survey estimates for stocks will be within plus or minus 5.6 percent for corn, 7.6 percent for soybeans, and 7.8 percent for all wheat of the value that could be developed by averaging the estimates produced from all possible samples selected from the same population and surveyed using the same procedures.
The relative standard errors for sorghum, barley, and oats are 18.0, 7.1, and 6.2 percent, respectively. Survey indications are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission, duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. Off-farm, as well as on-farm stocks, are subject to these types of errors.
These errors cannot be measured directly, but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.
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