Hedging Corn and Soybeans
Howard Tyllas is currently a member of the Chicago Board of Trade and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a floor broker and as a Commodity Trading Advisor.
July Corn Numbers & Trade Ideas for 5/11/12
May 12, 2011
This report was sent to subscribers on 5/10/11 1:30 p.m. Chicago time to be used for trading on 5/11/11. Everything is done by Howard Tyllas, no program or black box.
After the close recap on 5/11/11: My pivot acted as resistance and was 7.08 1/2, .03 3/4 from the actual high, and my support was 6.80 1/2, .03 1/4 from the actual low.
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All charts and numbers for 5/12/11 have already been sent to subscribers at 5:40 pm.
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------------- 7.08 ½ Pivot
6.80 ½ XX
5 day chart........ Down from last week same day
Daily chart ...... Sideways
Weekly chart .......Up
Monthly chart .... Up 6.10 ½ is the 200 DMA
ATR 26 ½ Oversold 37%
I still say "Uptrend line near the gap is strong support, downtrend line resists".
In my daily corn numbers on Tuesday; my resistance was .04 from the actual high; my support was .00 ¼ from the actual low.
Grains: Spot on grain numbers. July corn finished in the middle of the value areas between the up and downtrend lines. December corn is making lower weekly highs after the double top at $6.84 and is bearish or to be sold against until a new high is made. On the other hand no matter what the report says, I do not want to see December corn close below $6.25 ¼ or something is really wrong with the market chart wise.
July soybeans are also in the middle of their value area with the gap at $12.78 being support and the downtrend line near $14.10 being resistance. November soybeans gap at $12.38 supports and $13.90 resists. Nothing changed as far as the charts are concerned. Volatile action is sure to continue, and consider the market a moving target and take your best shots using your bullets wisely. I want to trade the numbers without bias and risk $.05 in corn and $.08 in soybeans.
I would not have a position going into the report. If I did it would be long November soybeans. Too much of a crap shoot for me to want to participate since we are not at an extreme number where if wrong the price might have been built in before and losses would be minimal, but if the report surprises the reward would be great starting at an extreme level. My approach is to take advantage of price extremes at numbers no matter the reason it got there. Report days can do that, and I would rather start being even, than to start with an extreme winner or loser. Many traders become emotional having positions on, no matter winner or loser, and that leads to not making as much when right, and losing even more by doing the wrong things with the stress of starting the day with a big loser and trying to get it back on the same day.
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