Joseph Vaclavik is the president at Standard Grain in Chicago. Standard Grain provides futures and options brokerage to farms, feedlots, elevators, processors, end-users and traders. Visit www.standardgrain.com for more information.
Ag Markets Mixed This Morning
May 29, 2012
· Grains mixed overnight with soybeans showing independent strength; Weekend weather was mostly as advertised on Friday, resulting in a relatively quiet corn trade; Rains were seen across some dry areas in the Corn Belt
· Wheat feeling harvest pressure despite some reports of poor yield results in Kansas and elsewhere; Weekend rains in Black Sea region as well as Australia adding to pressure; HRW wheat crop may have lost yield due to excessive warmth which caused early maturity
· Dryness in some Corn Belt areas becoming a concern for producers, however the trade has yet to see any major reaction
· Export Inspections and Crop Progress delayed until today due to Memorial Day holiday; Export Sales pushed back until Friday morning
· Outside markets mostly supportive with US$ lower, crude higher, equities higher
· Traders will continue to closely monitor weather forecasts this week; Intra-day market moves associated with forecast changes may be more plentiful now due to extended trading hours
· China corn yields 35% below US yields according to gov’t official there; Ag official indicating that China may need to rely less on exports for future needs due to future improvements in crop production
· CME Group intends to extend CBOT pit grain trading hours on USDA report days; New hours will open at 7:20am CST only on report days; CME still considering expanding pit to 2pm daily
Looking forward this week, traders will rely most on weather forecasts and crop progress numbers for the USDA for market direction. The corn crop was pegged at 77% good-excellent last week, a number that certainly maintains a bearish tone. The government continues to indicate through a number of different ways, that they believe corn yields will be big. The market will remain under pressure until a major drought/heat threat is seen.
New crop soybean prices holding the $13 mark recently. We haven’t yet seen crop ratings for beans, and will need to wait a few more weeks until we know something about the crop as a whole. Producers should look to sell rallies in Nov beans near the 13.20 area.
As always, call the office with questions or concerns.