Choppy Overnight, Beans Showing Strength
Nov 14, 2011
· Grains mixed overnight with soybeans showing independent strength; Soybeans essentially saw a double-bottom last week and have bounced slightly since then
· Corn prices falling off after attempting a rally overnight; Dec ’11 corn now trading 64 cents over Dec ’12
· Corn market clearly attempting to pry corn from farmers’ hands through rallies in spreads and basis; Futures unable to breakout of long time trading range
· Outside markets weak with equities and crude lower, $US higher
· On Friday, Informa pegged ’12 corn acreage at 94.0mil compared to 93.1mil in their Oct report; Soybean acreage for next year pegged at 76.1mil compared to 77.0mil in Oct
· China maintained its corn production estimate for ’11 at 184.5mmt, wheat production seen at 116.79mmt; Soybean output seen at 13.5mmt
· Export Inspections today at 10am CST; Crop Progress this afternoon at 3pm CST; Export Sales Thursday at 7:30am CST
· China will import 58-61mmt of soybeans in the 11/12 marketing year according to traders at COFCO
· COT report to be released this afternoon due to the Veteran’s Day holiday
Grains may continue to trade a range until more is known about the demand picture. The supply scare is priced-in for the most part. USDA’s demand numbers for corn last week were suspect. Traders waiting to see what kind of export demand there is for US soybeans. China buying soybeans from US gulf last week.
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