Jul 23, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions Sign UpLogin


Standard Grain

RSS By: Joe Vaclavik

Joseph Vaclavik is the president at Standard Grain in Chicago. Standard Grain provides futures and options brokerage to farms, feedlots, elevators, processors, end-users and traders. Visit www.standardgrain.com for more information.

 

Grains Hold Recent Lows...For now

Dec 15, 2011

 

·         Grains slightly higher overnight; Corn and soybeans both tested recent multi-month lows yesterday while crude and other outside commodities collapsed
·         Outsides are mostly supportive today to begin, however we wouldn’t rule out more downside in the markets that took the biggest hits yesterday (gold, silver, crude)
·         Export Sales this morning at 7:30am CST; Pre-Report Estimates:
o   Wheat                                   300k-400k mt
o   Corn                                       400k-600k mt
o   Soybeans                             400k-600k mt
·         China-based commodity analysts doesn’t see the government there adding to corn stockpiles through imports until LH of 2012
·         Russian grain analyst SovEcon raised estimate for Russian grain output to 92mmt from 90mmt previously
·         EIA weekly ethanol production at 938k bpd last week, down 16k from the previous week; Ethanol stocks at 17.1mil/barrels down 800k
·         Canadian Wheat Board will ask courts to block a bill that would end its 68-year-old grain monopoly
·         Rains in the RGDS state of Brazil, will continue to be dry for a couple of weeks as planting wraps up; Rio Grande do Sul is the 3rd largest growing state in Brazil
 
The trend in the grain markets remain lower, bottom-pickers beware.   Most technicians are looking for a break below 5.80 in March Corn sometime during the next couple of sessions.   We remain friendly both the corn and soy markets long term, however short-term downside appears imminent given the circumstances. With the collapses in gold, silver and crude yesterday, heavy margin-call selling seems to be a reasonable assumption today and tomorrow. Gold is trading below the 200 DMA for the first time since Jan ’09, possibly signaling a trend change in what has been the strongest of all commodities during the past several years.
 
Regards,
Joseph Vaclavik
Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

No comments have been posted, be the first one to comment.
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions