Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for May 4, 2016.
Grain markets are lower as traders worry about larger supplies and global economic downturn. The US Dollar is stronger due to weak European data. Stocks indices are lower around the globe.
Kansas wheat tour results are coming in higher than last year on several tour routes. They are finding stripe rust is some areas but are pointing to big yields because of the April rains across the state.
Ag attaché says Australian wheat production in 2016/17 is forecast at 24 million MT, around the same level as the previous year.
On Friday, Statistics Canada will release their estimate for grain stocks as of March 31, 2016. The average estimate in the Reuters survey for all-wheat stocks is 13.8 million tonnes, down 24 percent year over year. Wheat supplies would be the smallest in eight years. Canola stocks are estimated at 7.3 million tonnes, down 12 percent to the lowest level in three years.
Informa releases wheat crop estimate of 1.405 billion bushels which is up 28 million bushels from 2015. They cut Brazil’s corn crop by 2.7 mmt and Argentina’s corn crop by .5 mmt. Informa lowered Argentina’s soybeans to 55 mmt compared to USDA’s 59 mmt.
Funds were estimated sellers across the grain complex on Tuesday. They were estimated net sellers of 23,000 corn contracts, 15,000 soybeans, 10500 wheat, 7,000 meal and 1,000 soyoil.
Chinese authorities are focusing on a new set of targets: economists, analysts and business reporters who share gloomy views on China's economy. Securities regulators, media censors and other government officials have issued verbal warnings to commentators whose public remarks on the economy are out of step with the government's upbeat statements, according to government officials and economic commentators with knowledge of the matter.
EIA report this morning at 9:30 am CT.
Reuters - U.S. authorities destroyed 39,000 turkeys in Missouri due to an outbreak of a mild form of avian flu, the World Organization for Animal Health said on Tuesday, as officials remained on alert for new cases.
Live cattle future’s bulls are struggling with the weak beef prices as supplies are overwhelming. The cheap beef prices today could turn out to be beneficial for summer cash cattle prices. It appears trade is confident fed cattle supplies are being pulled ahead as cattle feeders take advantage of positive basis versus June futures. This week’s production should be 590,000 head.
Deferred futures are testing downtrend resistance lines which if broken one could expect more buyers to join the rally.
June lean hogs set new highs for the fifth day in a row, adding $5.00 in value. The June contract remains approximately $7.00 above cash index. Technical resistance crosses at 84.00.
Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 3.83 and select down 2.94. The CME Feeder Index is 143.43. Pork cutout values are down 1.16.
Markets At-A-Glance – 5:00 AM
- Jul Corn -2 1/2
- Jul Beans -3 1/4
- Jul Wheat - 1/2
- Jul Soymeal -4.20
- Jul Soy oil .42
- Jun Dlr .25
- Jun S&P -14.50
- Jun Crude -.13
- Jun Gold -13.10
Technical Chart of the Day
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