Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for June 29, 2016.
Grain markets are quietly mixed as traders prepare for the next bevy of information. US Dollar is weaker while stocks indices are higher.
The balance of this week could produce some very volatile markets for grains. Starting today Stats Canada releases acreage data and tomorrow USDA releases Quarterly stocks, Planted acreage and Weekly Export Sales. Thursday is first notice day for deliveries against the July futures contract and is the last trading day of the month. Friday will be the last chance to adjust positions and prepare for the post-holiday weather forecasts.
Talk to your broker and revisit any resting order you may have placed, “You don’t want any surprise fills”. Check with your Allendale Broker for pre-report strategies.
Rich Nelson said in last night's monthly webinar that it is not completely impossible for USDA to raise corn planted acreage.
Are you ready for the June 30th USDA Stocks and Acreage reports? If you were unable to join us last night for the Ag Leaders Webinar where we discussed estimates and expectations of these important reports. Register here to receive recorded comments.
NOAA will update their July forecast on Thursday. Traders will be watching for a possible impact on corn pollination.
Funds were estimated to have been net sellers of 7,000 corn contracts, 1,000 wheat and 3,000 soyoil. They were net buyers of 6,000 soybean and 3,500 soymeal contracts on Tuesday.
First notice day for delivery against the CBOT July futures contracts begins on Thursday. Early Trade delivery expectations are: wheat 400-1,000 contracts, KC wheat 200-500, corn zero-300, soybeans zero-800, soymeal 0-300 and soyoil 800-3,000 contracts.
Statistics Canada will report on crop plantings later this morning. Canadian farmers are expected to have planted slightly less wheat for harvest this year and about the same area of canola, according to a Reuter’s survey.
EU Leaders telling Britain to exit quickly has helped calm stock markets around the world.
Macro markets will have several reports to watch today. The U.S. PCE deflator is expected to show little change, personal income and spending is expected to show solid increases, pending home sales are expected to give back a little of the recent strength and MBA mortgage applications are expected to remain generally strong.
Weekly EIA report is released at 9:30 am CT. Trade consensus is for a 2.5 million barrel decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, a 300,000 barrel decline in gasoline inventories and a 625,000 barrel increase in distillate inventories.
June cattle futures contract will cease trading on Thursday June 30 at noon.
Cash cattle trade so far this week is light with a few trading at steady with last week. Product continues to slide as retailers finish their post-Independence Day purchases. Beef demand is faced with the “dog days of summer” which is typically a poor demand period of the year.
Live cattle futures traders are faced with declining product values and futures contracts which are already anticipating a price slide. History suggests we may be in for a sideways market until market works through the weak demand period.
Lean hog futures bounced off the lows in the deferred contracts while nearby contracts struggled. Bear spreading was the feature in the pork complex which may be a signal for a further correction.
August lean hog contract has support at 83.00, the 50 day moving average. Chart resistance crosses near 86.00.
Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 2.56 and select down .95. The CME Feeder Index is 140.67. Pork cutout values are up 1.86.
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