Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for November 14, 2014 at 5:30 am.
Traders Focus: Export sales data, Fund buying, Meal spreads, November contract last trading day and “end of week” technical patterns.
Grain markets are giving back some of this week’s gains while the Dollar is testing contract highs and crude oil is steady.
As of yesterday's close, Dec corn is up 19 cents for the week, Jan soybeans are up 17 cents, and Dec wheat is up 40 cents. One can search for changes in fundamentals to justify the strength in futures and come-up empty. However, the gains have to be attributed to money flow, could it be money leaving the energy complex moving into grains?
Funds are estimated to have bought a net 7,000 contracts of wheat, bought 14,000 corn, bought 4,000 soybeans, sold 3,000 soymeal and sold 1,000 soyoil contracts on Thursday.
The volatility in soybean complex suggests uncertainty and chart watchers will be looking for the weekly close to set the stage for next week. Corn is set to have the highest close since mid-July.
On Monday’s USDA Supply and Demand report, the corn for ethanol estimate was raised by 25 million bushels to 5.150 billion bushels which would be 0.3% increase over last year. Since the start of the 2014/15 marketing year which began September 1 the pace is 4% over last year. Processing margins for ethanol plants are still positive suggesting the reason for the strong pace.
Weekly Export sales data will be released this morning at 7:30. Trade estimates are: corn 400,000 to 600,000 tonnes, soybeans 1,100,000 to 1,300,000 tonnes, soymeal -100,000 to 100,000 tonnes, soyoil 10,000 to 20,000 tonnes and wheat 250,000 to 400,000 tonnes.
Update - Including Export Sales Results:
On their November report, the FSA acreage numbers are typically 96.8% of the NASS total in corn, 98.3% for soybeans, and 95.3% for wheat. This year's FSA November numbers are 94.5% for corn, 96.7% for soybeans, and 94.1% for wheat of the acreage numbers USDA used on their latest Supply and Demand Report. Watch for more revisions in January.
(Reuters) - Farmland values in the central U.S. Plains held mostly steady in the July-September quarter compared to a year ago, with land prices and loan demand generally tracking commodity price trends, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City said on Thursday.
Rail shipments of oil and petroleum products in the U.S. rose 13.4% in the 10 months through October from the year-earlier period, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
“According to very preliminary information, around 30 percent of crops are in the risk zone. These are crops that were sown too-late, in the second half of October,” says the head of agriculture at Ukraine’s state run weather center.
Canadian pig farmers will not be able to resume meat supplies to Russia after the food embargo is lifted as Rosselkhoznadzor, the Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision, is imposing a ban on Canadian pork imports from 14 November, privately-owned Russian news agency Interfax reported, adding that US poultry suppliers may soon share the same fate.
Livestock traders should take a look at the indirect relationship between live cattle futures and crude oil futures. Call your Allendale Representative if you would like to see a chart.
A few cattle have traded in IA at $167 but in general the feedlots are waiting for packer buyers to come looking for cattle. Packer margins have improved slightly but are still deep in the red. CME Feeder Cattle Index is 240.38. Beef values struggle to find strength with choice down .09 and select up .18. Pork cutout values were up .96 at 96.24.
Markets as of 5:30 AM CDT
- Dec Corn -2
- Jan Beans -11 1/4
- Dec Wheat -2 1/2
- Dec Soymeal -5.80
- Dec Dlr .25
- Dec S&P .50
- Dec Crude -.07
- Dec Gold -8.40
Technical Chart of the Day
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