Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for May 21, 2015 at 4:45 am.
Grain markets are higher on pre-report bargain hunting. The US Dollar is giving back some of this weeks gains.
Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:
Early estimates for the Monday afternoon crop conditions for corn is expected to be record high at 80%. The previous high for the first conditions report is 78% in 2007.
Stay in touch with Allendale Meteorologist Ryan Martin as the weather a big influence on futures markets. You can read his AM Weather comments and listen to his midday commentary by going on our weather blog.
Ethanol production jumped from 912,000 barrels per day in the previous week to 958,000 barrels which was much more than anyone was expecting. Last week’s production was a 4% increase over last year however to hit USDA’s target for the 2014/15 marketing year ethanol crush will have to fall to only 871,000 barrels per day in each of the 15 remaining weeks.
The USDA weekly export sales data will be released at 7:30.
Trade estimates for For
Wheat (-200,000)-50,000 200,000-350,000
Corn 400,000-600,000 50,000-200,000
Soybeans 100,000-250,000 150,000-350,000
Soymeal 50,000-125,000 0-75,000
Soyoil 0-15,000 0-10,000
With a strike already at the Rosario port, and a ship running a ground and blocking the entrance to the pivotal hub, at least 48 ships have been blocked from entering. A maritime leader says ships are being loaded but not to maximum capacity in order to get draft approval to pass through the area where the ship went a ground.
Ukraine’s Ag Minister says Ukrainian farmers had sown 6.5 million hectares of spring grain for the 2015 harvest as of May 19, or 92 percent of the initial sowing area.
Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home sales are on the economic calendar for later today.
After the release of minutes of the Federal Reserve's April meeting the U.S. short-term interest-rate futures contracts rose modestly suggesting that most policymakers saw little chance of a June rate hike. The trade is thinking it will be December before any rate hike would occur.
"In light of the World Trade Organization's decision and the certainty that we face significant retaliation by Canada and Mexico, we cannot afford to delay action," said Texas Republican Mike Conaway, chairman of the House of Representatives agriculture committee. The committee overwhelming approved legislation to repeal COOL, voting 38-6 in favor sending the measure to the full House of Representatives.
Cattle-on-Feed Report Friday at 2:00 pm CDT. Early estimates are: COF: 101.7%, Marketed: 92.4%, Placed: 102.5%.
There has been some confirmed trades in the southern Plains at 159 for cattle which would be a couple of dollars lower than last week. The packers in the north are biding 252 to 253 dressed.
Packers are buying for a holiday shortened production week as supplies of market ready cattle continue to rise. Cattle traders are also looking at a low marketing number on Friday’s report as a reason for profit taking.
Seasonal tendencies suggest a weaker trend for cash hogs for the balance of the week then find strength again following Memorial Day. Nearby lean hog futures are now in line with the cash index. Spreading is a major reason for individual month price movements.
Dressed beef values were mixed with choice down .61 and select up .03. The CME Feeder Index is 219.85. Pork cutout values are down .42.
Markets as of 4:45 AM CDT
- Jul Corn 2 3/4
- Jul Beans 3 3/4
- Jul Wheat 4 1/4
- Jul Soymeal 1.30
- Jun Dlr -.30
- Jun S&P -4.25
- Jul Crude .55
- Jun Gold .50
Technical Chart of the Day
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