March 2012 Archive for The Allendale Wake-Up Call

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 30, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are slightly higher as macro markets provide support this morning. End of month money flow and fear dominated grain futures markets yesterday. May corn futures have dropped 53 cents from Monday’s high to Thursday’s close and 3 1/2 cents from the low made after the January Grain Stocks Report. In a few hours the hype will become reality; the USDA will release the long awaited Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Plantings Reports. Remember, the corn and soybean plantings estimated by the USDA are as of the beginning of March. Price relationships were much more in favor of planting corn versus beans than today. The Quarterly stocks average estimates for this morning’s report are: wheat 1.223, corn 6.150 and soybeans 1.387 compared to last year wheat 1.425, corn 6.523 and soybeans 1.249 million bushel. Prospective planting trade average estimates are corn 94.72 million acres and soybeans 75.393 million acres compared to last year 91.92 and 74.976 respectively. Cash cattle trade 125 in TX and KS which are 1.00 lower from last week. NE was 1.00 to 2.00 lower than last week. Boxed beef was lower with choice down .78 and select down 1.20. Pork cutout values were down .77. The USDA will be releasing Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report this afternoon at 2:00 pm. Report estimates are All Hogs 101.7, Kept for Breeding 100.3, and Kept for Market 100.8. Get full pre-report and post-report comments in the Allendale Research Center. I will have a reaction to the Grain report on the Morning Coffee on YouTube by 8:00 am.

 

Weekly unemployment claims fell by 5,000 to 359,000 in the week ended March 24. This is a new low. The insured unemployment rate, shown here, fell to a new low for the recovery to 2.6%. The US economy is slowly improving.

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 29, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain markets are mixed this morning. Macro markets are providing a little tailwind for selling. Choppy action today is likely as traders adjust positions. In a little over 24 hours the USDA will release the long awaited Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Plantings Reports. Remember, the corn and soybean plantings estimated by the USDA are as of the beginning of March. Price relationships were much more in favor of planting corn versus beans than today. So the trade seems to be expecting a bearish corn number and bullish beans as corn is making new lows for its recent move and beans are near recent trend highs. Dow Jones newswire released trade estimates for this morning’s Weekly Export Sales: Wheat 450-750 tmt, Corn 600-900 tmt, Soybeans 450-750 tmt, Soymeal 50-165 tmt, Soyoil 5-25 tmt. The Quarterly stocks average estimates for Friday mornings report are: Wheat 1.223, Corn 6.150 and soybeans 1.387 compared to last year Wheat 1.425, Corn 6.523 and soybeans 1.249 million bushel. Prospective planting trade average estimates are corn 94.72 million acres and soybeans 75.393 million acres compared to last year 91.92 and 74.976 respectively. Outside markets or money flow will have to be watched closely as newswires were reporting China buying corn had no impact on slowing down the selling of futures yesterday. Cash cattle traded 2.00 lower in Southern Plains while boxed beef continues the slide. Choice was down 1.20 and select was down 1.06. Pork cutouts were down .12. The USDA will be releasing Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report on Friday at 2:00. Get full pre-report and post-report comments in the Allendale Research Center. Listen to the Morning Coffee on YouTube Friday morning to get details of the report.

 

EU analysis firm, Oil World, made an interesting claim Tuesday. The group suggests China will need to buy US old crop soybeans to fill April – July imports. Up until now the general trade’s expectation for South American problems was that it would mostly be a US new crop issue. If China purchases do swing to US old crop, in a big way, it could justify the current prices for old crop US futures.

 

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 28, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher this morning. Traders are adjusting positions ahead of Friday’s USDA report. This report has significant moves after the data release; Bloomberg News released a study suggesting corn had limit moves after the report 6 out of the last 7 times. Funds have record long positions in soybeans and seem to have a "bullet proof" mentality about being long. Brazil crop watchers continue to downgrade the soybean production for that region. Wheat is beginning to come out of dormancy in Spain and France where moisture is short and the forecast for rain is limited. Although we must remember according to the latest USDA report there are record world wheat stocks. The next two sessions will be impacted by money flow. Funds were estimated to have sold 9000 corn contracts, 6,000 soybeans and 4,000 wheat on Tuesday. Markets will move with their bias until Friday morning. More discussion can be found in the Allendale Research Center. Livestock futures gave us a bounce on Tuesday but there was no help when the beef values were reporedt. Choice was down 1.31 and select was down 1.18. Technically the rally on Tuesday could have been short covering due to oversold markets. Pork cutout values were up .58. Allendale has a special pricing for the Allendale Research center go to www.allendale-inc.com for more details. There are only a few days to take advantage of the Planter’s Special for $99.00. Listen to the Morning Coffee on Friday Morning to get the update on the report.

 

The trade is now discussing whether current high soybean prices will take acreage away from corn. Revenue comparison is a more accurate measurement than the well-known soybean/corn ratio. Since the first of the year, corn’s premium over soybeans has declined by $106 per acre. 

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 27, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are firmer as markets set the stage for the USDA report on Friday morning. Pre-release trade estimates are suggesting lower quarterly stocks and more planted acres for both corn and soybeans. Rich Nelson released to our subscribers’ yesterday afternoon a chart showing the reaction to quarterly stock data for corn in the last 3 reports. The average price decline for corn was nearly 37 cents after the data was released. The spread relationship between December Corn and November Soybeans closed at a new high 2.40/1. Dryness issues in the EU have traders concerned about wheat getting started there while rain is limited in the forecast for the next 10 days. Although traders will be focused on the USDA Report as we get closer to Friday, the macro markets will have its influences. Traders are talking about a possible QE3 after Fed Chairman’s speech yesterday. This type of chatter is fueling inflation buying interest in the grains. The Eurozone has been quiet after the ECB dumped money into the system, however the story is not over. On the livestock side, product continued on the streak of lower values. Choice was down .66 and select was down .01. The Lean Finely Textured Beef story has caused the closing of several plants and 650 jobs. This needs to be put behind us in order to rebound beef prices. Pork cutout values were .15 higher on Monday while futures indicators are registering oversold. Allendale has a special pricing for the Allendale Research center go to www.allendale-inc.com for more details.

 

The Reuters newswire poll of 25 analysts found the average trade guess for corn acres at 94.720 million. That is above the group’s February poll of 94.2 million. It represents a 2.799 million acre increase over last year.

 

 

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 26, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are mixed this morning. Soybeans are leading the grain markets higher as the abnormal, warm temps allow for early season fieldwork and potential planting of corn. The forecast for a smaller Brazilian bean crop, almost on a daily basis, is providing buyers with reasons to hold long positions going into the USDA report on Friday. Spreading will be a major influence on price movement this week as trader’s position for the USDA Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stock report on Friday morning. Trade estimates can be found in the Grain Section of the Allendale Research Center. Corn and wheat futures are sitting on technical support levels. Further selling could trigger more sell stop activation if these areas are broken. Look for some very choppy markets this week. Cattle on feed report showed we have more cattle on feed than a year ago and fewer cattle were marketed during February than the trade was expecting. This report is considered slightly bearish but with the sharp price decline in recent days may not have much impact on price. Product demand is the real problem for beef cutout values were lower again on Friday. Choice was down 1.51 and select was down 1.10. Pork cutout values were down .15 on Friday. Livestock futures are indicating a much oversold condition. Allendale has a special pricing for the Allendale Research center go to www.allendale-inc.com for more details.

 

US grain traders suggest China may have bought at least two cargoes of Argentine soybeans yesterday. Based on yesterday’s weekly export sales, covering sales from March 9 – 15, it appeared China was backing away from US product. Based on industry talk of China’s action this week, it appears this may be the start of a new trend.

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 23, 2012 at 5:20 am. Grain futures are higher due to comments made by a Chinese think tank on future corn usage. Spreading will continue to impact grain prices as we close out this week. Inter-commodity spreading between corn/beans and corn/wheat has traders trying to guess the report next Friday. The volatility in these spreads doesn’t have fundamental justification on a daily basis. However the Sept corn versus Dec corn has narrowed nearly 10 cents this week. The early planting of corn certainly suggests the current 27 cent premium of Sept over Dec is too much. We are hearing reports of corn out of the ground already after being planted for only 5 days. After the current weather system moves through the Midwest, there will be many more planters running next week. Many producers want to hold off until the April 6 crop insurance date but this weather is just too hard to pass up. Rich Nelson did a study yesterday using normal maturation, this early planted corn could be pollinating in mid-June. The slowdown of the Chinese economy has funds moving money to the commodity they think provides the most opportunity. On Thursday it was let’s sell gold and buy corn. Expect more choppy action as we approach March 30^th. The reduced packer production has not been the answer for improving cutout values and ultimately better margins. Packers paid steady to 1.00 higher this week for live cattle but choice beef was down .05 and select was down .65 yesterday. Pork cutouts were down .17 on Thursday. Higher gasoline prices have to be the major reason for sluggish beef demand as weather should provide a chance to do some early barbequing. The rally on Thursday in livestock futures helped move away from key support but a weak close today could trigger more selling pressure. We are running a Spring Planting Special for the Allendale Research Center; 6 months for only $99.00 click here to sign up.

 

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 22, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures reverse early session gains as China releases manufacturing data. Signs of China’s economy slowing down continue to weigh on grain markets with corn getting the brunt of it. Reports of China buying feed wheat from Australia instead of US corn have those who ran the market up last week covering some of their positions. Corn also is getting pressure from the warm weather and forecast for some rain late this week for Midwest. Many producers are planting in the southern part of corn growing areas and many are telling us they will be planting next week. The early planting of corn has traders finally believing there could be more acres of corn planted and less beans. Current price relationships still favor corn. EU financial woes have been quiet this week although there is rumbling of potential problems in Portugal and concern Greece will not be able meet their economic goals. Spreaders have been the market movers in grains after the initial reaction from overnight news. Expect more of the same as we approach the March 30 USDA Report. Cash cattle traded at $127 today in the Central and Southern Plains. Nebraska sold a few cattle at $128. This $127 action was $1 higher than last week and a dramatic turnaround from early-week bearish expectations. The stronger than expected cash trade did not provide a lot of support to April futures. The product market is not providing much encouragement for futures traders as packer production slows down. Choice was down 2.12 and select down .66 on Wednesday. Pork cutout value was down .72. The high gas prices are believed to be affecting consumer demand. We are running a Spring Planting Special for the Allendale Research Center; 6 months for only $99.00 click here to sign up.

 

Ethanol producers in the past year have started focusing on separating out corn oil from the corn by-product of ethanol production. While this separate activity gives them a separate revenue stream it has also lowered the amount of fat and energy in their DDG content. Some livestock producers suggest this may make them less satisfied with the product and they may switch back to soymeal and corn.

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 21, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are mixed this morning. The Chinese economic news adds concern to the commodity markets. China announced yesterday they were going to raise gasoline prices by 6 to 7% which is the largest such increase in over 3 years. This news has traders around the world expecting a larger slowdown of their economy which in turn means less demand for commodities. Funds have become sellers this week as many traders are getting positioned for one of the biggest USDA reports of the year, the March 30^th Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Plantings. You may want to look at your own marketing plan and decide if you should protect the price on more bushels? There are many ways to use options in your strategy to protect the downside and leave the opportunity for higher returns. Call your Allendale representative today. Live cattle and hog futures closed below recent support on Tuesday. Watch for support in April cattle at 124.15 and support in April lean hogs now crosses at the May 2011 low of 83.27. Cash market interest is very limited. Product gave back some of Monday’s gains. However, the reduced packer production should support beef prices later this week. Choice was down .65 and select down .04. Pork cutout values were down 1.58. We are running a Spring Planting Special for the Allendale Research Center; 6 months for only $99.00 click here to sign up.

 

University of Illinois agronomist, Emerson Nafziger, notes "Planting in late March or early April has almost never produced higher yields than planting in late April". Though we have not had a nationwide 50% complete number before April 25, Allendale would suspect that feat would imply better than trend yields. 

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 20, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain prices are lower this morning. Money flow out of agricultural commodities started on Monday as the major force behind this selloff. Although traders are in a tug-o-war as they determine the value of old crop corn versus new crop in both corn and beans as we approach the USDA Report. Allendale research has looked at the effect of 95.0 million acres of corn and 74.5 million acres of beans on ending stocks. Corn stocks would grow to near 1.5 billion in 2012-2013 marketing year. Soybeans have to be adjusted for the unexpected demand which we have received this year due to South American troubles. The potential for lower supplies due to fewer acres than 2012 could create even tighter ending stock for soybeans. An observation from my travels to ND, IA and Southern IL in recent weeks is that farmers have been very busy cleaning up old fence rows and tree lines. How many more acres will that add? Or should we ask how many more bushels will be produced from the same fields?  New trouble for Argentina grain logistics comes from the largest truckers union who called a strike yesterday. This is a normal yearly process to keep revenue in line with cost of inflation. On the livestock side, has cash cattle topped for the season? Historically, the price decline from spring highs to summer lows is between 8 to 19%. This would suggest an average decline could take prices to 114 for cash cattle by summer lows. Product values finally showed some improvement today with choice up 1.83 and select up .85. Pork cutout values were down .41 on Monday. Would you like a daily text update on your cell phone during the trading session? Please let us know your thoughts by sending an email to research@allendale-inc.com.

 

Friday’s Commitment of Traders release indicated the following changes for Managed Money between March 7 and March 13. Corn -810, soybeans +19,725, Chicago wheat -13,710, live cattle -5, 023, lean hogs -215. Traders may be surprised to see the funds were doing light sales through last Tuesday in corn.

 

 

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 19, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are lower as traders take profits. The fundamental issues traders will be watching this week are weather conditions in South America and rainfall through the Midwest in the US. Corn planting is getting underway in the southern half of the cornbelt. Exports will be watched very closely this week for confirmation that China has bought corn or soybeans. Allendale’s 95.012 estimates for planted acreage of corn will make it much easier to achieve a 14 billion bushel corn crop in 2012. Thanks to all who participated in this year’s survey. The port situation in Brazil and Argentina will remain a problem for meeting their shipment. However the port worker strike has ended and things are expected to get back to normal by early April. Money flow is still going to be the biggest market mover. Watch headlines and technical chart points for direction. Beef prices close out the week with choice down another .29 and select down .41 on Friday. Pork cutout values were down .03. We would expect a steady-higher call for the opening today, after the sharp selloff on Friday in the livestock futures.

 

Allendale’s 23^rd annual acreage survey found a large net increase in the nation’s top three crops. Producers told us there would be more corn planted than USDA estimated at the AgForum conference. Soybean and wheat plantings would be smaller than USDA previously estimated.

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 16, 2012 at 4:45 am. Rich Nelson will release the results of Allendale’s 23^rd Annual Planted Acreage Survey this morning at 7:30. The results will be emailed and the "Morning Coffee" on YouTube will have a breakdown of the results. If there are any questions please call Allendale at 800-262-7538. Grain markets are lower on profit taking this morning. The strength in soybeans in recent sessions has been the leader for the grain complex. The shipping problem in Brazil’s major port has a 20 day delay. Reports from contacts in Brazil are that it is expected these problems will be resolved within a few weeks. Argentina’s Rosario port has much bigger delays. The daily downgrade of the Brazilian bean crop also supplies bullish excitement. Money flow has dominated the grain trade. On Thursday Reuters reported funds bought 11,000 corn, 5,000 wheat and 7,000 soybeans. The macro market influences on grains has been minimal this week. The Greece situation has cooled off for a while as Portugal will likely be the next hot spot. USDA Quarterly stocks report will be released on March 30 which is anticipated to be friendly by many analysts. Cash cattle traded late yesterday at 126 which is steady with last week. Product continues to slide this week. Choice was down .67 and select was down .57. Pork cutouts were down 1.03 on Thursday. Cattle futures rallied after cash sales were announced. Visit www.allendale-inc.com for more information.

 

Last week’s old crop soybean export sales, reported this morning, totaled 609,700 tonnes (22 million bushels). This was the largest sale for this week in seven years. New crop sales, at 784,000 tonnes were better than any previous years in that week.

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 15, 2012 at 5:20 am. Grain futures are higher this morning ahead of the weekly USDA sales figures. Spreaders are buying beans as they focus on China shopping for soybeans from US because of short crops in Brazil and Argentina. NOPA crush data was supportive as the soybean crush was larger than expected. Soyoil stocks were a surprise as they were 120 mil lbs. above estimates. Another private analyst lowered the Brazilian soy crop to near 67 mmt. Weekly export sales will be released this morning at 7:30. Trade estimates are: corn 500 to 900 tmt, soybeans 700 to 1,200 tmt, meal 75 to 145 tmt, soyoil 5 to 25 tmt and wheat 400 to 800 tmt. Traders will have a watchful eye on the newswire at 8:00 am for any new sales of corn or beans to China. Allendale will release the results of the 23^rd Annual Planting Survey tomorrow morning at 7:30. Cash cattle sales were at a standoff yesterday while beef product was sharply lower again. Choice was down 1.26 and select was down 1.75 which will add to the negative packer margins. Futures are hoping for a steady cash trade this week. Pork cutout values down .60 are being pressured by too much competitive meat available to the marketplace. Futures have been finding support early in session and selling off late. We will have to watch for cash sales to give us direction. Check with Allendale Research Center for more details on the markets www.allendale-inc.com.  

 

As of Tuesday afternoon, the labor strike at Argentina’s Rosario port has idled 85 cargo ships. Workers are demanding an eight hour workday and for a fourth crew member to be assigned to each team in charge of mooring vessels. Currently workers work a 12 hour day in three man teams. Argentina is the world’s #2 exporter of corn and #1 exporter of both soymeal and soyoil.

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 14, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are mixed this morning as soybeans continue to show strength. Money flow continues to impact commodity prices. Grain futures have been taking turns on leadership. Soybeans continue their trek higher on South American production estimates and port problems in Argentina. It will be some time before we get the final harvest numbers. Reuter’s news wire was reporting 85 ships waiting to be loaded in the main Argentina port of Rosario. This delay is caused by a port workers strike which talks have broken off and next meeting scheduled for March 26. Traders will be watching for any more sales announcements by USDA at 8:00 am. The Quarterly stock report on March 30 is providing buying enthusiasm as many are expecting a large reduction in corn stocks. Allendale will release our planting survey results on Friday morning at 7:30 am. Today is last trading day for March grain futures contracts. Cattle futures rebound on positive economic news. Cash markets are at a standstill early this week but product continues to slide. Choice beef was down .98 and select was down 1.35 on Tuesday. Packers will likely hold out until late in the week to buy their needs. Steer and heifer weights are running well above normal as we are seeing the effect of a mild winter. Pork cutout values are slightly higher as exports continue to support prices. Sign up for Allendale Research Center today!

 

The US grain trade expects Tuesday morning’s sale of 240,000 tonnes of corn to "unknown" to be the Chinese purchases that have been discussed. This was a little better than the two to three cargoes the trade has been expecting (120,000-180,000).

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 13, 2012 at 5:20 am. Grain futures are higher this morning. Rumor of China buying old crop corn was the catalyst which turned prices higher on Monday. We are all waiting for 8:00 am when the USDA releases any sales of 100,000 tonnes or more. Will it be China, or South Korea and Mexico who are looking to buy corn? Current tight stocks of US corn will continue to provide extreme sensitivity to rumors and weather until we are sure the 2012 corn crop is made. Traders are already focusing on the March 30 stocks report which should help provide a clearer explanation of the USDA’s balance sheet for corn. March 30 Prospective Plantings numbers will be key for price direction of new crop corn and soybeans. Allendale will be releasing the results of our 23rd Annual Planting survey on Friday morning at 7:30. The Greek Credit Default Swap issue has cooled off until next Monday when the pricing will be settled by auction, but don’t expect the EU to stay out of the spotlight for long. Portugal seems to be the next country to have financial issues. Weather in South America is not a factor right now but focus is switching to the US Midwest. Corn planting will be getting underway this week in Southern Illinois and Indiana. Cattle futures on Monday had a large price swing late in the session prompted by short covering in an oversold market. Product values were under pressure again. Choice was down .73 and select down 1.11. Hog futures did not show strength on the close as pork cutout values ended the day up .58. Full details can be found in the Allendale Research Center, Subscribe TODAY!

 

In recent weeks there has been disagreement over the size of China’s fall corn harvest. The official government estimate is 191.75 million tonnes (Ministry of Agriculture). The think-tank, China National Grains and Oils Information Centre, sees it at 185 mt. Private Chinese brokerage firm, JC Intelligence, sees it at 168 mt.

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 12, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are slightly higher this morning. Now that the neutral USDA supply and demand report is out of the way, trade will be focusing on the rumor circulating Friday that China was buying US old crop corn. We will be waiting for any confirmation of a sale this week. It seems unlikely that China would be buying old crop but we will have to wait and see. In a few weeks the USDA will provide us with Prospective Plantings which promises to be a market mover. Allendale just completed the 23^rd Annual Planting Intention Survey of our clients and listeners. We will release our findings this Friday March 16, 2012. Big thanks to all of you who helped us with the survey. Weather will be monitored closely as this growing season will be very important due to current tight ending stocks. In my travels this past weekend I saw a few farmers doing fieldwork and a fertilizer plant open on Sunday. The warm weather is getting this planting season started even if it is only March 11. Cattle futures closed weak on Friday and would expect more pressure this morning if outside markets are under pressure at 9:05. Beef was lower on Friday, choice was down 1.96 and select was down .59. Pork cutout values were down .46. These lower product values are suggesting there still is a problem moving meat at the retail counter. Follow Allendale on YouTube and Twitter or subscribe online and receive Allendale on your mobile phone.

 

No changes at all were made to US soybean exports or crush. Considering the changes to South American production, USDA should have given US old crop exports a little boost. Though most of the SA production drop will benefit new crop US exports, at least a small amount should have been added to the old crop US. Ending stocks left unchanged at a large 275 million bushels. Traders will be disappointed in this report (bearish) but likely will not completely believe it.

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 9, 2012 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are higher ahead of this morning’s USDA report due at 7:30. The Dollar is higher as Greece uses collective action clauses to complete the debt swap deal. Unemployment numbers out at 7:30 could also have an impact on commodity prices this morning. The export sales data released on Thursday morning surprised bean traders with over 1.600 mmt sold. Trade was expecting 500 to 700 tmt. Funds have been buying beans and selling corn in a big way going into today’s report. The trade seems to be expecting a large reduction in South American soybean and corn production. IBGE, Brazil’s stats agency dropped production to 67.52 mmt which was below the CONAB estimate. The numbers to watch when the report is released this morning are the US corn and soybean ending stocks and the Brazilian and Argentine corn and soybean production. We will provide a complete update on the "Morning Coffee" segment on YouTube by 8:00 am. The pork industry will be getting more timely information when (FAS) begins releasing weekly pork exports which should be coming soon. Cash cattle traded at 126 to 127 on a decent volume this week. Beef was dropped sharply on Thursday as choice was down 1.73 and select was down 1.13. Pork cutout values were lower by 1.43. Check out the Allendale Research Center and stay up to date with market moving information.

 

Reuter’s newswire, in a private investigation with Beijing brokerage firm JC Intelligence, estimates the Chinese government overstated last year’s corn crop from 6.8 to 24.0 million tonnes. Last year’s corn crop was announced to be a record 191.75 million tonnes. If true, this would imply China may be a more aggressive buyer than many expect this year.

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 8, 2012 at 5:20 am. Grain futures are higher as traders now believe Greece will not default by Friday. The USDA will give us their weekly export data this morning at 7:30. Corn sales for last week are expected to be 500 to 750 tmt. The soybean estimate is 600 to 900 tmt and the wheat estimate is 300 to 600 tmt. The trade is expecting lower ending stocks for corn and soybeans and lower production out of Argentina and Brazil on the Supply and Demand Report. The Macro market traders are worried about the unemployment data being released at 7:30 on Friday but now feel Greece will get acceptance of the swap deal and avert a default. These uncertainties will likely keep markets volatile for the rest of the week. The livestock futures collapse on Tuesday caused some movement of fed cattle at 3 to 4 dollars lower than last week. Most cattle in the south were traded at 126 to 127 compared to last week at 130. Choice beef values were .58 lower and select was up .33 on Wednesday. Pork values were up .57. There are only a few days to help us with our 23 annual planted acreage survey. Go to www.allendale-inc.com and follow the directions.

 

In its weekly SpendingPulse report MasterCard estimates gasoline demand was 6.5% smaller than the same week last year. This comes as retail gas prices, at $3.75 across the nation, were 9.3% higher than a year ago. High gas prices are supporting ethanol prices. However, ethanol demand is being limited by the lower quantity desired.

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 7, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain markets are mostly higher this morning. Spreading has been a key market mover recently as traders get positioned for Friday’s USDA Report. There is talk that soybeans are getting strength from Chinese buying as South American deals with port delays. Another twist is the reduced supply of DDGs is creating more demand for soybean meal, ultimately supporting nearby beans. News wires are reporting trade guesses for the Argentine bean crop is 46.8 and for Brazil it is 69.3. Traders are expecting lower ending stocks for both old crop corn and old crop beans. Friday morning could create some fireworks as the US employment and USDA Supply and Demand report will be released at 7:30 CST. The risk-off attitude by traders is surrounding the chance that Greece defaults by early Friday. Weather in South America should not have much of an impact in the near-term. Allendale is in the final days of gathering data for the 23^rd Annual Planted Acreage survey. If you haven’t gone to www.allendale-inc.com and filled out a survey we would appreciate you doing it now. The more accurate data, the better the results. Livestock futures are trying to rebound from yesterday’s selling attack which stemmed from fund profit taking. Cash cattle sales are likely to wait until late week. Choice beef was up .12 and select was up.56. Pork cutout values were slightly lower. Thank you to AgriGold for hosting the meeting in Riverside IA yesterday. Thanks to a great group of interested producers with many questions.

 

Analysis firms Safras & Mercado, Celeres, and Abiove all lowered Brazilian soybean production to 68.23, 69.8 and 69.5 million tonnes respectively. The USDA estimate was 72 million in February.

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Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 6, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain Markets are lower on profit taking and macro market selling pressure.  Risk-off selling pressure is seen across the commodity complex this morning. This week we have some major reports. On Friday, the USDA will release the March Supply and Demand report at 7:30 CST. Trade will be looking for changes in the US corn and soybean ending stocks as well as adjustments in the South American corn and soybean production data. We have some US economic data which could have an impact on macro markets. Private debt holders will vote Thursday on the acceptance of the Greek debt swap offer. Argentina dock workers strike has been settled but now truckers are expected to strike next week. Weather is continually being touted as bullish or bearish but in reality it will be a few weeks before US weather will go to front of the line for market impact. Livestock futures fell sharply Monday on news that China’s economy is expected to slow which could have an effect on export. Technical chart support points could uncover more selling if penetrated (see Allendale Advance Charts). Cutout values were mixed with choice down .08 and select up .39. Pork cutout values were down .17 on Monday. I am looking forward to seeing many of you in Riverside later this morning. Don’t forget to fill out the survey on Planting Intention. We will release the result on the 16^th at 7:30.