Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 6, 2012 at 5:00 am. Grain Markets are lower on profit taking and macro market selling pressure. Risk-off selling pressure is seen across the commodity complex this morning. This week we have some major reports. On Friday, the USDA will release the March Supply and Demand report at 7:30 CST. Trade will be looking for changes in the US corn and soybean ending stocks as well as adjustments in the South American corn and soybean production data. We have some US economic data which could have an impact on macro markets. Private debt holders will vote Thursday on the acceptance of the Greek debt swap offer. Argentina dock workers strike has been settled but now truckers are expected to strike next week. Weather is continually being touted as bullish or bearish but in reality it will be a few weeks before US weather will go to front of the line for market impact. Livestock futures fell sharply Monday on news that China’s economy is expected to slow which could have an effect on export. Technical chart support points could uncover more selling if penetrated (see Allendale Advance Charts). Cutout values were mixed with choice down .08 and select up .39. Pork cutout values were down .17 on Monday. I am looking forward to seeing many of you in Riverside later this morning. Don’t forget to fill out the survey on Planting Intention. We will release the result on the 16th at 7:30.
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Corn -6 to -8 Live Cattle -80 to -100 US Dollar Index +.42
Beans -1 to -3 Lean Hogs -75 to -135 Crude Oil -.65
Wheat -10 to -11 S&P Index -11.75 Gold -16.60
Allendale Advanced Charts
Cattle dropped sharply on Monday and settled near current uptrend support and 40 day moving average. Previous support at 129.50 now becomes resistance. Be aware that a close below uptrend support line and last week’s low of 127.92 could trigger more selling.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Here’s the most recent changes in the CFTC’s Managed Money category. This group is commonly referred to as "the funds".
Corn Soybeans Chi Wheat KC Wheat Cattle Hogs
2/14 -4,031 +18,186 -13,572 -3,671 +1,903 -883
2/21 -23,104 +15,929 -12,825 -3,429 +9,415 +1,805
2/28 +32,739 +20,707 +9,270 -1,289 +201 -2,878
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.