Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 15, 2012 at 5:00 am. Corn and soybean futures are mixed in a quiet overnight session. Very strong cash corn basis is helping support old crop/new crop corn spreads. Spread adjusting will likely be the focus ahead of weekend macro events. On Thursday afternoon, after the grain markets closed, central banks from major economies said they are ready to provide liquidity and prevent a credit squeeze if the outcome of the Greek election causes problems in stability. Export sales for corn were the lowest for the old crop marketing year. Brazil's grain industry association Abiove said on Thursday in its May estimates the 2011/12 soybean crop that the final harvest would be 66.2 million tonnes, up from the 65.9 million tonnes forecast in April. Funds were buyers of an estimated 10,000 CBOT corn contracts and 2,000 contracts of wheat. They sold 6,000 contracts of soybeans on Thursday. World Weather Inc. says, "…The bottom line still provides net drying and increasing crop stress late this week and into early next week as high pressure builds up across the Midwest briefly. Relief then comes later next week and into the following weekend with rain falling in many key crop areas at one time or another. Resulting rainfall in the second week outlook was still advertised too light to seriously improve crop and field conditions without follow up rain , but that may eventually change in time…" Change in weather forecast will be watched closely going into the close today. Be prepared for volatility as we close out this week of trading. Cash cattle traded 3.00 to 4.00 lower this week at 118 to 119 in TX and KS. Boxed beef prices were mixed on Thursday, choice up .41 and select down .07. Pork cutout was up 2.35 on Thursday. Live hog supplies are expected to be tight for a few more weeks. Nearby futures closed at levels not seen since March 15, 2012. The Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar
scheduled for June 26 will answer specific questions on production and acreage before the USDA report, sign up today. Morning Coffee
will be updated by 8:00 am
Markets as of 5:00 AM
Jly Corn + 1/4
Jly Beans +7 1/2
Jly Wheat +1 1/2
Aug Cattle -.12
Jly Hogs -.12
Sep S&P +4.50
Sep Dlr -.25
Jly Crude +.70
Aug Gold +4.00
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s July Crude Oil chart has created a bullish set up. The price action has created an equal and opposite pattern which is a rejection pattern which would imply higher prices if the 6/7/12 $87.03 pivot high is taken out we could create a sharp recovery in the July Crude.
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
NOPA, the industry group for the US oilseed crushing industry, estimates May soybean crush totaled 138.266 million bushels. This was over estimates of 135.1. More important to us, this is up a sharp 15% over last year. If crush runs just 5% over last year in June, July, and August, which is a conservative number, Allendale estimates crush will end 17 million bushels over USDA latest.
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.