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February 2013 Archive for The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Higher Grains This Morning

Feb 28, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 28, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grains are higher, led by the nearby contracts. Bull spreading in #corn and #soybeans has been a feature the last few days. The March contracts have been supported by lack of farmer selling, strong cash markets and possible lack of deliveries.  Weekly export sales will be released later this morning. Trade estimates are: corn 350 to 450 tmt, soybeans 750 to 1,000 tmt, soymeal 150 to 300 tmt, soyoil 15 to 30 tmt and wheat 400 to 600 tmt. The improving moisture conditions in Argentina has stabilized the crop and should have put a floor in production estimates. #China and Unknown were reported buying beans yesterday. The port issues in #Brazil will likely be on trader’s minds as tight supplies prevail in the US. The PNW dock worker problems are not over. It was reported yesterday that one firm locked out workers due to fear of sabotage of operations. Livestock producers have had a week and a half of weather related problems and a backlog of market ready cattle and hogs. Over the next two weeks we will have to run extra numbers through the line. This will keep cash, and therefore futures, on weak footing. Boxed beef was higher on Wednesday with choice up 1.06 and select up 2.30. Pork cutout values were up .33. The feeder cattle index was down .10 to 138.21. If you are in the Riverside IA area stop by and join us for the Allendale and AgriGold Meeting which starts are 4:00 pm today. Don’t forget to fill out the Planted Acreage survey at www.allendale-inc.com.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • May Corn    +4 1/2
  • May Beans   +7
  • May Wheat   +8 1/4
  • Apr Cattle  -.05
  • Apr Hogs    -.22
  • Mar Dlr     +.04
  • Mar S&P     +1.75
  • Apr Crude   -.32
  • Apr Gold    -8.90

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Traders Adjust Positions Ahead Of Sequestration

Feb 27, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 27, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grains are mixed with corn lower and #soybeans and # wheat higher. This morning we are seeing some adjusting in the old crop/new crop corn spread as farmers are reluctant to sell. Farmers were telling me at recent meeting they will be more likely to sell if nearby corn futures reaches 7.50. Spreads are being supported as trade believes there will be very little corn delivered, if any. First notice day for March grain contracts is tomorrow. Those holding long March positions on Thursday will have the risk of taking delivery. We are only a few days away from establishing the crop insurance price for corn. Unless we see a sharp rally in Dec #corn the average price will be around 5.66 compared to last year's 5.68. Talk of #China opening their reserves of soybeans and soyoil is weighing on the soy complex. The price relationship of wheat to corn may cause greater use of wheat in rations. Funds bought an estimated 11,000 corn contracts and 4,000 wheat contracts. They sold an estimated 4,000 soybeans. The sequestration which takes effect March 1 has traders very nervous. Washington continues to point fingers. The packing industry meat inspectors appear to be working on a furlough program that is expected to ease the pain. It is likely to back cattle up but may cleanup some meat inventory and improve packer margins. Cash cattle should trade higher this week. Boxed beef was higher due to snow storm disrupting movement of product. Retailers also want to get some meat on hand ahead of possible supply problems due to budget cuts. Choice was up 1.42 and select was up 2.43. Pork cutout values were down .26. The feeder cattle index was down .83 to 138.31. Looking forward to seeing many of you in Riverside IA on Thursday Afternoon or Friday Morning. We had a great crowd last night on the February Ag Leaders Webinar. Don’t forget to fill out the Planted acreage survey at www.allendale-inc.com.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • May Corn    -1
  • May Beans   +3 1/2
  • May Wheat   +3 1/4
  • Apr Cattle  +.02
  • Apr Hogs    -.27
  • Mar Dlr     -.17
  • Mar S&P     +.75
  • Apr Crude   +.27
  • Apr Gold    -8.00

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

March 1st Spending Cuts Concern Traders

Feb 26, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 26, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grains are mixed with corn and wheat higher, soybeans lower. This report is coming to you from Miami, FL this morning as I will be presenting to the Refrigerated Foods Association later today. The grains and soybean markets are looking for fundamental news which justifies the sell-off over the last few days. We can point to the improvement in weather in South America or the poor demand data coming from the USDA late last week. Without new fundamental news, one must look to technical patterns and outside market influences. Traders are worried the March 1st budget deadlines. The March dollar index has moved above the contract highs. The stock indices rolled over yesterday. March grain futures contracts first notice day is Thursday, February 28th. Trade is not expecting any deliveries in corn due the strong basis. Technical support in May corn still is the January low of 6.78 ½. The November soybean support is 12.50 which a close below that level would likely activate more selling. The next major fundamental reports will come in the form of more export sales, the mid-March supply and demand report and then the Planting Prospects Report on March 29. Livestock futures continue to see the selling pressure from fund and margin liquidation.  Boxed beef values had little change with Choice up .20 and select down .05. Pork cutout values were up .15.  Join the Allendale team tonight for the Ag Leaders Monthly webinar. We are preparing for the Allendale Road Series 2013 meetings that will be held in Riverside IA this Thursday and Friday sponsored by AgriGold. You can reserve your seat and find all the details at www.allendale-inc.com.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • May #Corn    +4 1/4
  • May #Beans   -6 1/2
  • May #Wheat   +3/4
  • Apr Cattle  -.35
  • Apr Hogs    -.40
  • Mar Dlr     +.01
  • Mar S&P     +3.50
  • Apr Crude   -.65
  • Apr Gold    +4.80

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Market Searches for New Fundamental Support

Feb 25, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 25, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grains are higher as they try to recover from last week’s sell-off. Old crop #corn closed only a few cents away from major technical support at 6.78 ½. November #soybeans are testing their support at 12.55. Nearby soybeans had a large outside day down after setting new highs for the move. As we start this week with a rather negative technical picture, we are not getting much help from South American weather. Argentina should have received rain over about 50% of the area this weekend and another system due in Thursday with greater coverage. Rumors on Friday had some South American beans being sold in the US. The export sales report on Friday was disappointing as soybeans sales were net cancellation. The CFTC report of Commitment of Traders showed managed funds reducing long positions by 61,060 and soybeans by 7,215. This data is reported as of Tuesday’s close. Brazilian port workers call off the 6 hour strike set for Tuesday after discussion with government officials. Thursday is first notice day for March grain contracts. Allendale’s Annual Planted Acreage starts this week. Your help is very important. Cattle on Feed report was a little on the negative side but the trade right now has a problem with US consumer demand, exports, and is also concerned about upcoming problems with meat inspections. Boxed beef was mixed, with choice up .54 and select down .01. Hog traders are concerned we could see no real progress on some type of verification agreement on Paylean for China and possible meat plant closures due to this budget issue. Pork cutout value was down .21 on Friday. Livestock futures are called steady lower this morning. We are preparing for the Allendale Road Series 2013 meetings that will be held in Riverside IA this Thursday and Friday sponsored by AgriGold. You can reserve your seat and find all the details at www.allendale-inc.com.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • Mar Corn    +2 1/2
  • Mar Beans   +6 1/2
  • Mar Wheat   -1
  • Apr Cattle  Stdy-Lwr
  • Apr Hogs    Stdy-Lwr
  • Mar Dlr     -.25
  • Mar S&P     +6.25
  • Apr Crude   +1.04
  • Apr Gold    +20.00

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Bull Spreading Supports Nearby Futures

Feb 22, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 22, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grains are higher with soybeans testing the $15.00 area. Private feed mills in China bought 240,000 of new crop US corn. Traders are waiting for the USDA’s yield projections which will be released today at the AG Forum in Washington DC. On Thursday they gave us their total production estimate for corn which was 14.530 billion bushels and soybeans 3.405 billion bushels. The USDA will fill us in on the rest of the balance sheet today. The weekly export sales numbers will be out at 7:30. Estimates are: corn 150 to 350 tmt, soybeans 300 to 600 tmt, soymeal 100 to 200 tmt, soyoil 10 to 30 tmt and wheat 400 to 600 tmt. Reuters reported fifty-nine ships were waiting to load grain at Santos port on Thursday versus 29 a year ago, citing data from SA Commodities/Unimar. At the other main grain port, Paranagua, 82 ships were waiting compared with 31 ships this time last year. The dockworkers strike today and Tuesday will cause more delays although they will only be halting work for 6 hours at a time. Trade is saying China booked up to 9 cargoes of US soybeans this week to fill immediate needs due to South American port delays. Moisture in the southern plains was enough of a catalyst to pressure an already technically weak wheat market. Bean basis was weaker on Thursday at the central Illinois processor while corn held steady. May corn futures has key support at 6.78 ½ while November soybean support crosses at 12.56 ¾. Old crop/New crop spreads have been a feature in the grain trade. March option expiration is today. Secretary Vilsack said today that the meat inspector’s furloughs would not be affected for several weeks after the March 1 federal budget cut deadline. Smithfield believes they can meet the requests China has for ractopamine-free pork. Boxed beef was mixed with choice up .04 and select down .33. Pork cutout value was down .57. Many agricultural markets are oversold. Don’t be surprised to see some short covering before the weekend. We are preparing for the Allendale Road Series 2013 meetings that will be held in Riverside, IA next Thursday and Friday sponsored by AgriGold. You can reserve your seat and find all the details at www.allendale-inc.com.
 
Markets as of 5:05 AM
  • Mar Corn    +3 1/4
  • Mar Beans   +18 1/2
  • Mar Wheat   +1 1/4
  • Apr Cattle  -.07
  • Apr Hogs    -.05
  • Mar Dlr     +.01
  • Mar S&P     +4.75
  • Apr Crude   -.14
  • Apr Gold    +2.00
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Dollar Higher, Grains Lower

Feb 21, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 21, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grains are lower as traders take profits in soybeans. The continuing liquidation in the metal and energies along with the strong US #Dollar are providing the resistance. Talk continues to circulate that #China has purchased 5 to 10 cargoes of #soybeans since their return from holiday. Possibly to fill immediate needs as Brazil’s load out backlogs increases. Brazilian port workers are planning a nationwide strike on Friday morning and Tuesday afternoon. Weekly ethanol production data will be released at 10:00 am today. Export sales will be delayed until Friday morning due to Monday's holiday. Traders are saying China bought 350,000 tonnes of US wheat this week while newswires report China buying an additional 500,000 tonnes from Australia and Canada in recent days. The low price of #wheat is attracting a buyer. Ag Secretary Vilsack has written a letter to congress outlining the closures at the end of the month if sequestration occurs. He is suggestion a furlough of meat inspectors and food assistance program. The Ag Forum starts today in Washington DC where the USDA is not expected to release their 2013/14 information until tomorrow morning. Economic data out at 7:30 could have an impact on trader’s attitude. Watch for the release of weekly jobless claims and the US January CPI this morning. Newswires were reporting that a hedge fund was liquidating their holding in metals and energies to cause yesterday’s sharp selloff. Cattle futures continue to get pounded on fund liquidation while cash markets have traded at steady prices with last week. Boxed beef was lower on Wednesday with choice down .16 and select down .35. Spreaders have been a major influence in the hog complex. Pork cutout values were up .87. We are preparing for the Allendale Road Series 2013 meetings that will be held in Riverside, IA next Thursday and Friday sponsored by AgriGold. You can reserve your seat and find all the details at www.allendale-inc.com.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • Mar #Corn    -2 1/2
  • Mar Beans   -5 3/4
  • Mar Wheat   -5
  • Apr Cattle  -.02
  • Apr Hogs    -1.00
  • Mar Dlr     +.37
  • Mar S&P     -3.50
  • Apr Crude   -1.38
  • Apr Gold    -9.10

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Follow Through Buying in Soybeans

Feb 20, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 20, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grains are mixed with soybeans higher, corn and wheat lower. Nearby #soybean futures are leading the charge higher as traders are concerned about the low supplies of soybeans in Chinese ports, shipping delays out of #Brazil and weather concerns in #Argentina. Prices are getting near the 15.00 area in March soybeans which was the level China canceled purchases last month. Brazilian dock workers boarded a ship and stopped it from unloading modernized cranes. They are concerned that modernization of port facilities will cost them union jobs. Brazil will likely see more dock worker problems in coming weeks. Analysts continue to adjust South American production when Oil World out of Germany lowered Argentina’s bean crop. As reported by Reuters, funds sold an estimated net 6,000 corn contracts, sold 4,000 wheat contracts, and bought 13,000 soybeans contracts on Tuesday. March options expire on Friday. The USDA Ag Forum will give us their estimates of corn yield and acres planted later this week. The anticipation and expectation of trend yield of 163.4 is keeping pressure on the corn and wheat futures. Boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday with choice up .52 and select up .48. Last week’s cattle slaughter ran a little under the previous year level. This week’s will run close to last year’s level. China has asked US officials to begin verifying that the pork we send them is ractopamine-free. Possibly more trouble for exports for meat. The pork cutout value was up 1.48. Thanks again to our hosts Legends Seeds for the two great meetings in SD and MN.

 Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • Mar #Corn    - 3/4
  • Mar #Beans   +11
  • Mar #Wheat   - 1/2
  • Apr Cattle  -.20
  • Apr Hogs    -.32
  • Mar Dlr     +.08
  • Mar S&P     +.25
  • Mar Crude   +.29
  • Feb Gold    -13.60

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Hopes Of China Buying More Soybeans

Feb 19, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 19, 2013 at 5:15 am. This report is coming to you from Mankato, MN where temperature is 1 degree above zero and expected to fall from here. The wind chill is -30 degrees. We had a great crowd in Watertown, SD yesterday sponsored by Legends Seeds. Today the meeting will start at 10:00 am at the City Center Hotel in Mankato, MN. Grains are higher on short covering and hopes of improving demand. Traders are expecting China to be back in the market this week, looking for some soybeans. The USDA Outlook Board Ag Forum will be released Friday morning. It is well promoted that their data will be bearish. Watch for surprises! Rainfall in Argentina was less than earlier forecast this past weekend however temps are not extremely hot. Technical indicators for grains are exhibiting oversold conditions. November soybeans could run into some selling at the 12.82 level. May corn has support at 6.78 ½ while Dec corn has resistance at 5.70. The outside markets are providing some headwinds for grains as the dollar is higher and near technical resistance at 81.00. Livestock markets are still struggling with demand for product. Boxed beef was mixed on Friday with choice down 1.58 and select was up .80. Pork cutout values were down .10 to end the week. Livestock markets are due for a bounce or even more. We are waiting for the market to give us the signal. Look for choppy markets this week ahead of USDA Ag Forum.

Markets as of 5:15 AM

  • Mar #Corn    +2 1/2
  • Mar #Beans   +23 1/2
  • Mar #Wheat   +2 1/4
  • Apr Cattle  Steady-Lower
  • Apr Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Mar Dlr     +.14
  • Mar S&P     +2.00
  • Mar Crude   -.44
  • Feb Gold    -4.50

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Grains Start Friday Higher

Feb 15, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 15, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grains are higher as the outside market pressure subsides. Markets are poised to have some short covering ahead of the long weekend as technical indicators are registering oversold conditions and corn has closed lower 10 days in a row. Chart support is still 6.78 in March corn. However the soybean bulls got a blow yesterday with 230,000 tonnes of soybean export cancellations. As we approach the long weekend, bulls are looking for support from the #NOPA #crush data which will be released at 11:00 am today via Reuters News. The trade estimate is 159.5 million bushels, just shy of the 2009 record of 162.5 for January. The RBOB (gasoline) futures rallied sharply yesterday on low inventory data from EIA. This rally combined with lower corn prices should support a pickup in corn demand. Cheaper corn prices will help cattle on feed margins and/or reduce losses. We do not believe corn prices are the biggest worry of cattle feeders right now. Cash cattle traded mostly 2.00 lower this week. Futures tried to rally yesterday but only appeared as short covering. Boxed beef was mixed with choice down .15 and select up .28. Feeder index was down 1.12 at 142.42. Pork futures collapsed on Thursday due to demand concerns and long liquidation. Pork cutout values were up .14. April futures have support at 84.02 the Sept 2012 low. Markets will be closed on Monday in observance of President’s Day. Grain markets will open at 7:00 pm on Monday and livestock will reopen at 9:05 on Tuesday. If you are in the Watertown, SD area on Monday or Mankato, MN on Tuesday we would like to have you join us for an outlook meeting sponsored by Legend Seeds. Please details at www.allendale-inc.com.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Mar #Corn    +6 1/4
  • Mar #Beans   +6 1/4
  • Mar #Wheat   +6 1/2
  • Apr Cattle  +.07
  • Apr Hogs    +.07
  • Mar Dlr     +.03
  • Mar S&P     -2.50
  • Mar Crude   -.56
  • Feb Gold    -8.20

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Grains Bounce On Short Covering

Feb 14, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 14, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grains are mixed at this hour after a short covering rally overnight. Rallies have hit a headwind as the US dollar strengthens. Traders have their sights set on the Weekly Export Sales data to be released this morning at 7:30. Trade estimates for this report are for #corn 150 to 350 tmt, #soybeans 700 tmt to 1.667 mmt, soymeal 150 to 250 tmt, soyoil 20 to 30 tmt and wheat 275 to 400 tmt. # China is on their New Year holiday this week and should be back to business Sunday night. The Chinese crush margins are positive and many in the trade are expecting them to be looking for more beans next week. Load out time in Brazilian ports continues to build as last week there were 84 vessels waiting; this week the number is 115. Celeres puts Brazil’s bean harvest at 12% compared to the 5 year average of 7% percent. The National Oilseed Processors Association's (NOPA) are scheduled to release their January US crush figure on Friday at 11:00 am. Trade estimates range from 157.5 to 162.5 million bushel. The weather maps continue to show rain across Argentina over the next week. So far this week, choice beef is up 1.45 and select is down 56 cents. The trade is not yet ready to suggest this means stability has finally shown up in this market. Futures continue to get pounded by fund liquidation and likely margin clerk liquidation pressure. Demand for meat is causing problems even though supplies of market ready cattle and hogs are tight. Pork cutout values were down 2.68 on Wednesday. Boxed beef ended Wednesday with choice up .23 and select up .02. Feeder cattle index was down .42 at 143.54. If you are in the Watertown, SD on Monday we would like to have you join us for an outlook meeting sponsored by Legend Seeds. Please details at www.allendale-inc.com.
Markets as of 5:05 AM
  • Mar Corn    -1/4
  • Mar Beans   -3 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   +2 3/4
  • Apr Cattle  -.65
  • Apr Hogs    -.35
  • Mar Dlr     +.48
  • Mar S&P     -7.00
  • Mar Crude   -.08
  • Feb Gold    -1.10
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

More Of The Same For 9 Days Now

Feb 13, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 13, 2013 at 5:10 am. Grains are lower even with bargain hunters supporting prices early in the session. Talk of major funds liquidating positions in agriculture markets had been a huge catalyst of selling pressure in recent sessions. However, at yesterday's close, corn futures were down 8 days in a row with a price decline of 43 cents. Since last week’s highs soybeans and wheat have dropped .61 and .21 in value. Technical indicators are oversold which suggests when funds are through with their waves of selling, a correction should be in order. Technical damage to charts and without fresh fundamental news we would have to believe a rally back to the 200 day moving average will be met by sellers.  Funds net sales on Tuesday were estimated at 10,000 corn contracts, 5,000 wheat, and 6,000 soybeans. Cash bids improved along the IL River as farmer selling was nil. Trading volume should improve today as South American traders return to work. Thursday’s Export numbers and Friday’s NOPA crush data will be watched closely. Port delays in South America should provide a reason for buyers to look to the US in the near term however South Korea excluded the US from a corn tender overnight. Was yesterday the final flush in the cattle futures? USDA reported that beef exports in December were 14% under the previous year. That was worse than November’s -11% and October’s -3%. There were reports that cattle traded in the South at 123 yesterday. Boxed beef was higher with choice up .73 and select up .15. Feeder Cattle Index was down .86 to 143.96. USDA’s pork export numbers for the month of December showed a troubling trend. October exports ran 2% over last year and November was 8% lower. The new numbers, for December, were 14% lower than last year. Cash hogs have been under pressure the last few days. Pork cutout was up .93 on Tuesday. If you are in the Watertown South Dakota on Monday we would like to have you join us for an outlook meeting sponsored by Legend Seed. Please details at www.allendale-inc.com.

 

Markets as of 5:10 AM

  • Mar Corn    -6 1/2
  • Mar Beans   -14
  • Mar Wheat   -6 1/2
  • Apr Cattle  -.17
  • Apr Hogs    -.17
  • Mar Dlr     -.04
  • Mar S&P     +1.50
  • Mar Crude   +.10
  • Feb Gold    -1.00

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Liquidation Pressures Grains

Feb 12, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 12, 2013 at 4:40 am. Grains are lower on follow-through selling and liquidation of longs. The USDA Baseline yield number of 163.5 for #corn released yesterday has given the trade expectations for 2013. The USDA will not present their official estimates for 2013 until the Agriculture Outlook Forum next week. As we presented at the Allendale Conference in January a corn yield anywhere close to trend could leave a carryout for 2013/14 near 2.0 billion bushels. We are nearing the end of the weather market in South America. With recent rains in Northern Argentina and Southern Brazil crops are looking much better. Southern Argentina remains moisture deficient, however some weather models have rain in the forecast. Temps are not extremely hot which has helped reduce crop stress during the dry period. We are now hearing talk that Brazilian port workers are going to strike starting Feb 19. They have a history of walking out at a time when the world needs grain. Safras says #bean harvest in Brazil is 10% completed versus 6% average.  NOPA will release January crush data on Thursday. Goldman Sachs cut their price forecast for grains, citing improved confidence in South American production. Chart resistance now crosses at the January low (5.70) in Dec corn while support in November beans crosses at the January low (12.59). China, Malaysia and South American markets are closed today. Meat demand is stifling any rebound in cattle and hogs.  Boxed beef was mixed with choice up .60 and select down .47. Pork cutout values were down .54 on Monday. The poor margins for both cattle and hog packers is weighing on cash prices and futures. Feeder cattle index is down .61 to 144.82. Next week, Monday and Tuesday I will be in Watertown, SD and Mankato, MN presenting an Allendale Outlook for Legend Seeds. You are welcome to attend, admission is free and lunch will be served. You can find all the details and register at http://www.allendale-inc.com/upcoming-events/.
Markets as of 4:40 AM
  • Mar Corn    -5 3/4
  • Mar Beans   +1 3/4
  • Mar Wheat   -3
  • Feb Cattle  -.10
  • Feb Hogs    -.60
  • Mar Dlr     +.12
  • Mar S&P     -1.25
  • Mar Crude   -.21
  • Feb Gold    -5.80
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Holidays Around The World Reduce Volume

Feb 11, 2013

We apologize for the late distribution this morning; technology is great when it works. Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 11, 2013 at 7:00 am. Grains are lower this morning. With the USDA Supply and Demand behind us, the trade will be looking forward to the Agricultural Outlook Forum 2013 which is held in Washington on Feb 21 and 22. At this forum is where the USDA gives us a first look at what they are thinking for the 2013 crop. China will likely be quiet for the next 10 days as they are celebrating their new year which started Sunday. Carnival celebration is going on in South America which will end on Tuesday. Market traders will be preoccupied around the world. However with the chart damage on Friday we will be watching key moving averages which could cause momentum to build on the downside. Argentina received some rain but bulls are saying not enough. Brazil did receive some beneficial moisture in the south. National Cotton Council over the weekend said they expect the2013 cotton crop to be the smallest in 20 years. Expect a choppy market for a few days as any sizable orders will be a market mover. Boxed beef values fell on Friday with choice down 1.34 and select down 1.51. Pork cutout value was up .54. The feeder index was down .59 to 145.43. Meat demand will suffer due to the snow storm on the East Coast. Meat will have to move into different channels until deliveries can get back to normal. USDA said on Friday pork exports hit record level in 2012. Make sure to sign up on line if you will be able to attend any of the Allendale Road Series Meetings.

Markets as of 7:00 AM

  • Mar #Corn    -1
  • Mar #Beans   -14 1/4
  • Mar #Wheat   -2 3/4
  • Feb Cattle  Steady-Lower
  • Feb Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Mar Dlr     +.04
  • Mar S&P     +2.75
  • Mar Crude   -.24
  • Feb Gold    -9.00

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Light Volume but USDA Will Change That at 11:00 CST

Feb 08, 2013

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for February 8, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grains are surprisingly quiet ahead of the supply and demand report at 11:00 this morning. It seems most of the re-positioning was done yesterday. Corn fell below the January lows yesterday and managed to close below that level as well. This will keep the technical picture looking weak unless we can recover today. The average trade guess for carryout in corn is at 615 million. Last month USDA came in at 602 million. This increase could come from lowering demand for exports and also an adjustment to ethanol numbers. Ethanol is running almost 12% lower for the year and USDA still is expecting only a 10% decline. Beans have been strong over the last week. The March contract still sits near 1500 and seems like it wants to push above. South American weather will still be watched close and could provide support but today will be all about carryout numbers. Trade estimates for beans are lower than January’s number. Last month beans had a carryout of 135 million and expectations are 129 million this morning. South American production will be watched closely for beans and could provide excitement as well. Argentina’s production is expected to drop from 54 million metric tonnes to 53 mmt. Brazil’s production could see an increase from 82.5 mmt to 83.1 mmt. Wheat has been falling this week right along with corn and could see an increase in ending stocks as well. The charts were able to hold support at the 750 level in March yesterday but the trend is still down. The trade is looking for carry out to rise to 728 million from 716 million. Export sales have been strong for wheat but analyst still are looking for a slight increase. We are still expecting to see sloppy trade for cattle. No cash trades as of yet for this week and box beef is seen mixed once again. Choice was down .48 at 183.46 and select was up .48 at 181.13. All eyes will be focused on the grain report at 11:00. Make sure to sign up on line if you will be able to attend any of the Allendale Road Series Meetings.
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
  • Mar #Corn    -1 1/4
  • Mar #Beans   +2 1/2
  • Mar #Wheat   +1 3/4 
  • Feb Cattle  unch
  • Feb Hogs    -.10
  • Mar Dlr     -.21
  • Mar S&P     +0.50
  • Mar Crude   +.25
  • Feb Gold    -.05
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Grains continue to fall ahead of USDA report

Feb 07, 2013

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for February 7, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are falling once again ahead of the USDA report tomorrow. The trade is expecting to see an increase in corn and wheat carryout but could have a slight decrease for beans. Beans have been able to hold support over the last few days as corn and wheat continue to find more weakness. Export sales will be released this morning at 7:30. Beans continue to show good demand over the last several weeks but corn continues to struggle. The trade is expecting to see between 150,000-400,000 metric tonnes sold for corn and a big 800,000-1.3 million metric tonnes beans. With another potentially light sale for corn, USDA may have to revise export numbers tomorrow. Ethanol is another sore spot for corn. Production numbers yesterday had a slight increase from 770,000 barrels per day to 774,000 barrels per day. This is still 16% behind year ago levels for this week. For the year, so far ethanol is running 11.7% behind year ago levels as a whole. USDA still has ethanol at only a 10% decline. This leaves room for adjustments on tomorrow's report as well. Beans should continue to find support from lack of moisture in Argentina. The weather maps continue to fight over rain amounts for the next few weeks. The facts are that beans will have continued support as long as there is any concern because we have good demand and stocks are relatively tight. There is still chart resistance at the 1500 level and will most likely take a bullish report to push us through that.  Cattle filled the gap they made on the charts from a week ago but are slipping lower once again this morning. Box beef has been strong this week but finished mixed yesterday with choice .37 lower at 183.94 and select up .93 to 180.65. No cash cattle trades yet this week but we will need to see higher trade to turn the emotion around. Make sure to sign up on line if you will be able to attend any of the Allendale Road Series Meetings.
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
  • Mar #Corn    -6
  • Mar #Beans   -4
  • Mar #Wheat   -4 1/2
  • Feb Cattle  -.10
  • Feb Hogs    -.32
  • Mar Dlr     -.17
  • Mar S&P     +3.25
  • Mar Crude   +.30
  • Feb Gold    -2.90
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Weather Versus Demand Battle

Feb 06, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 6, 2013 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are lower overnight as more moisture is added to the forecast for Argentina. Technical overbought conditions and European financial struggles are adding to the selling bias. Weather conditions in South America have some analysts cutting soybean and corn production almost on a daily basis. On the other hand, some are increasing Brazil's production.  Friday at 11:00 am the USDA will release the February Supply and Demand. Traders are expecting to see an increase in ending stocks in corn due to poor export demand and slowdown in ethanol production. The opposite is expected for soybeans. Positive crush and Chinese demand for soybeans should lower last month's ending stock. Weather forecasting models have put more moisture in for next week. The bottom line is, we are in a weather market due to conditions in South America which will likely continue for a few more weeks. Demand for US corn is weighing on prices. Traders are expecting more soybean sales to be announced before the Chinese New Year’s Holiday begins on Saturday. Weekly export sales report will be released tomorrow morning. The Congressional Budget Office released its projections for 2013 corn plantings at 97.0 million acres with a yield of 161.5. Soybean acres are projected at 77.0 million with a yield of 43.5 bushel per acre. Total production for corn was 14.454 billion bushel and soybeans were estimated at 3.306 billion bushel. 2013 ending stocks were 1.852 for corn and 281 for soybeans. Cash markets have been quiet as producers close bin doors on price declines. Livestock traders are expecting to see stronger cash cattle this week as we finally see an improvement in boxed beef. Choice was up 1.57 and select was up .71 on Tuesday. Warmer weather in the Midwest is a contributor to hogs gains and a pickup in movement. Pork cutout values were down 1.62. Feeder cattle index is 146.86 up .09. Make sure to sign up on line if you will be able to attend any of the Allendale Road Series Meetings.

Markets as of 5:15 AM

  • Mar #Corn    -5
  • Mar #Beans   -10 1/2
  • Mar #Wheat   -4 1/2
  • Feb Cattle  +.57
  • Feb Hogs    -.30
  • Mar Dlr     +.24
  • Mar S&P     +.75
  • Mar Crude   -.63
  • Feb Gold    +3.80

 

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Corn Demand Raises Concern

Feb 05, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 5, 2013 at 4:45 am. Grain futures are higher after an early session sell-off. Demand for old crop #corn has stalled in ethanol use and for exports. #Soybeans have a brighter picture as traders are looking for a pickup in exports from China. Backlog of ships loading in Brazil is now estimated at 40 days. Traders are also expecting more announcements of Chinese purchases before their New Year’s holiday which starts this weekend. Analysts in Brazil are downgrading their estimate of the soybean crop due to weather inconsistency. CME said they will close the open outcry at KCBT on June 28 and move the open outcry to the CME floor in Chicago on July 1, 2013. Argentina has announced a price freeze in its supermarkets for two months in hopes of stopping its spiraling inflation. Another ethanol processing plant is closing. The Renewable Fuels Association said as of January 29 that 36 of the 211 plants in the US have been shut down. The #USDA will release the February Supply and Demand at 11:00 on Friday. They also will be releasing their 10 Year Baseline Projections on Monday at 11:00. This is the data the government uses for budgeting purposes. Goldman roll starts on Thursday. Cash cattle bids and asks are 5.00 to 6.00 apart. Packer margins are deep in the red. Boxed beef was up slightly on Monday. Choice was up .18 and select was up .39. Cash movement is expected to pick up this week as temps warm up a bit across the upper Midwest. Pork cutout values were down 1.03. Feeder cattle index was up .50 to 146.77. Take a look at the meeting list on our website and if you are in the area we would like to have you join us. http://www.allendale-inc.com/upcoming-events/
 
Markets as of 4:45 AM
  • Mar Corn    + 1/4
  • Mar Beans   +4 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   +1
  • Feb Cattle  +.75
  • Feb Hogs    -.52
  • Mar Dlr     -.01
  • Mar S&P     +5.00
  • Mar Crude   +.42
  • Feb Gold    +1.40
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Grains Rebound After Friday's Weak Close

Feb 04, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 4, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher on short covering and weather concerns. Traders are watching weather in South America and getting positioned for the monthly supply and demand report on Friday, Feb 8 at 11:00 am. Rains have finished across Argentina and southern #Brazil. Spotty showers are possible this week but very limited in amount of moisture. Temps are expected to warm up in the high 80’s to mid 90’s this week. The second week of the forecast has more rain with much better coverage. Egypt bought a cargo of US wheat over the weekend. US #wheat is now the cheapest in the world. The CFTC commitment of traders report showed managed money increasing long positions in corn by 12,927 and soybeans by 7,223 contracts. They also reduced short wheat positions by 3,232 contracts. The USDA #Cattle Inventory report shows cattle numbers at lowest level since 1952. However the report looks like cow-calf producers are starting to build beef cow herds. We believe they are just trying to offset the culling they had to do this summer because of the drought. Packer margins continue to be in the red due to resistance in consumer demand.  Boxed beef was sharply lower again on Friday with choice down 2.76 and select down 1.63. Russia is still planning to ban US beef and pork starting Feb 11.  Pork cutout value was up 1.77. The feeder cattle index was up .13 to 146.27.
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
  • Mar #Corn    +5
  • Mar #Beans   +16 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   +7 1/4
  • Feb Cattle  Steady-Lower
  • Feb Hogs    Steady-Higher
  • Mar Dlr     +.34
  • Mar S&P     -2.75
  • Mar Crude   -.89
  • Feb Gold    -5.40
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

Grains Higher Going Into Weekend

Feb 01, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 1, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher overnight fueled by outside market buyers. Traders are watching #weather forecasts very closely in South America. Any increase or decrease in rain drops causes a reaction in the market. This weather market will likely continue for a few more weeks. We did hear of some good farmer movement this week. Basis in the interior has slipped a bit. #China has been a consistent buyer of # soybeans as the USDA announced another 220,000 tonnes of new crop yesterday morning. Chinese buyers are busy taking care of business before their New Year's holiday week starts on Feb 9, 2013. The EPA released their proposed renewable fuels requirements for 2013 yesterday. The requirement includes their use projections of a significant amount of cellulosic ethanol, probably not an attainable goal for producers and blenders to achieve. Informa is expected to give us an update this morning on 2013 South American production. NOPA says they will release their monthly crush numbers at 11:00 am CST starting with the February 15th report. We start a new month today and the Goldman roll will begin on February 7. Do not be surprised to see the grains close out the week on a firm note. The cattle inventory report is out this afternoon which traders are expecting January 1 numbers to be 1.8% less than last year. Cash cattle traded at 125 which is $3.00 higher than the low trade of last week. Futures traders were expecting a stronger bid than 125. Demand for beef continues to weigh on fed prices. Choice beef was 1.44 lower and select was .77 lower on Thursday. The feeder cattle index was up .75 to 146.14. Packers were bidding for hogs to fill out weekend chain needs. The cold temps and snowy roads cause prices to be firm however packers are already expecting to buy hogs cheaper next week. Pork cutout values were down .42. We have several meetings planned over the next few weeks and we hope to see you there.
 
Markets as of 5:00 AM
  • Mar Corn    +3 1/4
  • Mar Beans   +12 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   +4 1/4
  • Feb Cattle  +.02
  • Feb Hogs    +.10
  • Mar Dlr     -.13
  • Mar S&P     +3.75
  • Mar Crude   -.28
  • Feb Gold    +4.50
 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

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