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May 2013 Archive for The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Buying Continues in Corn and Oilseeds

May 31, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 31, 2013 at 5:15 am.  Corn and soybeans are higher as buying continues on the last day of the month.  The weather forecast is a bit drier for the 6 to 10 day timeframe however we have reached the insurance date which allows producers to take the Prevent Planting Option. After talking to more producers about the possibility of taking Prevent Plant, they said they would rather switch to a shorter season corn. They cite that PP will not cover the cost of rent, fertilizer and equipment. Many producers in MN say they have the option to harvest as silage if it does not mature to harvest as corn. Traders are quickly becoming convinced that the bull market in old crop grains is over. They use the old crop/new crop spread to justify their reasoning. July corn/Dec corn spread has narrowed 44 cents in 8 sessions. The July soybean/Nov soybean spread has narrowed 88 cents in 5 sessions. Some of this narrowing could be front running ahead of 3 major funds moving out of the July to a deferred contract which started yesterday. Rogers Fund, Deutcshe and Goldman funds are unofficially expected to roll positions in the next 5 to 8 trading sessions. There is more talk that China has canceled soybeans out of South America as crush margins turn negative in China. The Mississippi River is being forced to close due to high water. The weekly export sales numbers will be released later this morning.

Trade estimates for USDA weekly grain/soy export sales – RTRS

  2012/13 2013/14
Wheat 0-200,000 250,000-450,000
Corn 0-200,000 600,000-800,000
Soybeans 0-200,000 400,000-600,000
Soymeal 75,000-150,000 75,000-150,000
Soyoil 5,000-10,000 0

Hog futures find support off the new that the Chinese firm Shuanghui has purchased Smithfield. Cattle futures ran into fund selling yesterday when moving average support was broken. Boxed beef was lower on Thursday with choice down .98 and select down 1.24. Feeder index was down .36 to 131.88. Pork cutout values were down .05. Call you Allendale Rep to discuss the new "Call to Action" just released. 

Markets as of 5:15 AM

  • Jul #Corn    +3 1/2
  • Jul #Beans   +12 1/4
  • Jul #Wheat   -4 1/2
  • Jun #Cattle  +.25
  • Jun #Hogs    +.27
  • Jun Dlr     +.33
  • Jun S&P     -11.00
  • Jul Crude   -.78
  • Jun Gold    -1.30

 

View Today’s Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538.

Contact Allendale:

Email: service@allendale-inc.com

Tooth Causes Delay

May 30, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 30, 2013 at 7:00 am.  Corn and soybeans are lower as traders take some profits due to a drier 6 to 10 day. I apologize for the delay this morning but an emergency root canal last evening caused some concentration issues. Wet weather will prevail across the north and central corn belt through the weekend. However, those not getting rain are finishing planting corn and soybeans. Spreading will be the feature today as major funds roll out of July into deferred contracts. China’s cancellation of old crop beans yesterday has traders worried there is more shifting to be done. Weekly exports sales will be released tomorrow morning due to holiday. Listen in to the Morning Coffee this morning for more details. Livestock futures are a bit firmer on short covering and a better technical picture. Boxed beef was higher with choice up .99 and select up .40. The feeder index was unchanged yesterday at 132.24. Pork cutout values were up 1.21 on Wednesday. Call your Allendale Rep for more details.

Markets as of 7:00 AM

  • Jul Corn    -3
  • Jul Beans   -9
  • Jul Wheat   -8 3/4
  • Jun Cattle  +.32
  • Jun Hogs    +.22
  • Jun Dlr     -0
  • Jun S&P     +5.50
  • Jul Crude   -.74
  • Jun Gold    +5.60

 

View Today’s Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538.

Contact Allendale:

Email: service@allendale-inc.com

Profit Taking Provides Today’s Weakness

May 29, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 29, 2013 at 4:55 am.  Corn and soybeans are lower as traders take some profits after yesterday’s sharp rally. Weather forecasts will dominate traders’ psyche until planted acres are determined. Any dryer forecast could weigh on a technically overbought market. The USDA reported that corn planting was 86% complete as of Sunday. That was right on the traders estimate and only 4% below the 5 year average of 90%. There are about 13. 6 million acres of corn left to plant. Many in the trade are talking about farmers taking prevent planting; however, when we do the numbers it may not be all that lucrative unless producers have taken the top tier of insurance coverage. It is likely producers will plant corn until the second week of June. The balance sheet for corn doesn’t change much even with a 2 to 3 million acre reduction in planted acres. Remember, harvested acres and yield carries the most weight this year when compared to 2012. Soybean planting was registered at 44%, which is a little higher than traders were expecting but equates to about 43.2 million acres left to be planted. Soybean yields are more of a concern. As the saying goes, "soybeans don’t like wet feet." Spring wheat planting increased 12% last week to 79% versus 86% average. Wheat conditions continue to improve around the world thus giving reason for the fund selling pressure. Yesterday they were net sellers of wheat while buying a net 12 to 13,000 contracts of corn and soybeans. During the next several trading sessions, we will have major funds rolling positions out of the July contract in to Sept and Dec in corn and August and Nov in the soybeans. Boxed beef was lower on Tuesday with choice down .33 and select down .51. The feeder index was up .43 to 132.10. The pork industry continues to tract down the cause of the swine-only virus, the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV), which poses no danger to humans or other animals. Money flow into the stock market and strength in grains continue to limit buyer enthusiasm in livestock futures. Pork cutout value was down .55 yesterday. If you were unable to listen to the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar last night, a link to the recording will be available later this morning.

Markets as of 4:55 AM

  • Jul Corn    -2 1/2
  • Jul Beans   +1
  • Jul Wheat   -4
  • Jun Cattle  +.22
  • Jun Hogs    -.07
  • Jun Dlr     -.10
  • Jun S&P     -5.00
  • Jul Crude   -.43
  • Jun Gold    +3.90

 

View Today’s Chart of the Day

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Contact Allendale:

Email: service@allendale-inc.com

Forecast for a Wet Week Ahead`

May 28, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 28, 2013 at 4:45 am.  Corn and soybeans are higher wheat steady. Rain and more rain in the forecast have traders coming back from the holiday as buyers. Allendale’s Ag Leader’s Webinar is tonight at 8:00 pm. Allendale’s Chief Strategist, Rich Nelson and Legends Seed Agronomist, Matt Hubsch will breakdown the planted acres and yield effect on total production. This afternoon’s planting progress report is going to be closely watched as weather conditions in the week ahead do not give us much drying time. Traders are expecting 85 to 90% corn planted compared to 71% last week. Soybean plantings are expected to reach 45 to 50% on this report. Heavier than expected rains across IA, IL and IN has traders talking about switching of acres. Keep in mind the insurance planting date for corn is a couple of weeks off. Soybean and meal basis continues to slip as processors have accumulated enough supply for a few weeks. Friday’s CFTC Commitment of traders report showed Managed Money reducing their long corn positions by 21,158 and increasing their long soybean positions by 21,433 contracts as of last Tuesday. Funds reduced short positions in wheat by 9,761 contracts. The Roger Fund will start this week and the Goldman Roll next week could limit the move in bull spreads. Boxed beef was lower on Friday with choice down 2.50 and select down 1.08. The feeder index was up .14 to 131.67. Pork cutout was up .14. Livestock traders will be watching for reports concerning retail clearance for the holiday weekend.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Jul Corn    +2 1/4
  • Jul Beans   +9 1/2
  • Jul Wheat   -1 3/4
  • Jun Cattle  Steady-Higher
  • Jun Hogs    Steady-Higher
  • Jun Dlr     +.13
  • Jun S&P     +12.00
  • Jul Crude   +.53
  • Jun Gold    +8.30

 

View Today’s Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538.

Contact Allendale:

Email: service@allendale-inc.com

Have Soybeans Topped?

May 24, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 24, 2013 at 5:15 am.  Grains are mixed is a quiet, narrow trading range session. The outside markets are lower as traders even positions ahead of the weekend. There is more talk overnight that the large trading range on Thursday was a blow-off top or an exhaustion of the bull move. Some of their supporting thoughts are the weakening of soybean basis, the settlement of the port workers strike in Argentina, the move by end-users to price cash bids off a deferred contract and crush margins turning to red. Old crop corn basis is firm and the supply of corn is tight. Planting progress data will be released on Tuesday at 3:00 pm due to Memorial Day Holiday. Markets will open at 7:00 pm on Monday evening. Don’t forget to attend the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar on Tuesday evening at 8:00pm. Rich Nelson and Matt Hubsch will discuss the impact of late planting and potential prevent planting estimates. News wires are reporting that Senators voted 59-32 late yesterday to reduce crop insurance subsidy for farmers with more than $750,000 AGI. The Durbin-Coburn amendment would cut premium subsidy by 15%. Currently the government pays about 60% of every dollar of premium. Choice beef scratched out another record high price on Thursday afternoon by being up .17 to 211.37. Select was down .67. Packers will be closed on Monday and retailers are out of the market until post-holiday restocking. Pork packers are not interested in buying hogs ahead of a short work week. Pork cutout value was down .06. The feeder index on Thursday was 131.50 down .03. Allendale wants to wish everyone a safe and enjoyable Memorial Day Holiday as we remember those men and women who died while serving the United States and preserving our freedom.

Markets as of 5:15 AM

  • Jul #Corn    -2 1/4
  • Jul #Beans   -1
  • Jul #Wheat   +2 1/2
  • Jun #Cattle  +.25
  • Jun #Hogs    +.32
  • Jun Dlr     -.16
  • Jun S&P     -6.00
  • Jul Crude   -.39
  • Jun Gold    -6.00

 

View Today’s Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538.

Contact Allendale:

Email: service@allendale-inc.com

Bean Basis Has A Sharp Drop

May 23, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 23, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grains are mixed on position evening and profit taking ahead of the long weekend. The PMI data out of China overnight has equity markets and base commodities under pressure this morning. Traders will be dealing with mixed signals in the grain complex as the holiday weekend approaches. An opposite directional move of the cash markets versus futures yesterday has traders scratching their heads. Futures rocketed through recent highs and closed strong in both corn and soybeans. Cash basis, on the other hand, dropped sharply. There were reports late yesterday that elevator basis for soybeans fell 20 to 28 cents per bushel. This suggests farmers are moving enough grain to fill end-users needs. The news that ethanol production was down only 5.2% from last year when USDA is forecasting a 10% decline and the announcement that China and unknown buyers purchased 540,000 tonnes of new crop corn is providing some support under the market this morning. Funds were estimated net buyers of 12,000 corn, 2,000 wheat and 7,000 soybean contracts yesterday. The farm bill is still in limbo in the senate. There is a lot of talk about the risk of having nearly 50% of the corn crop planted in a 10 day period which projects pollination to occur in late July. Historically temps could be very hot during that period. You can get a professionals opinion on Tuesday evening when Rich Nelson, Allendale’s’ Chief Strategist, and Matt Hubsch, an agronomist from Legend Seeds, will discuss potential issues in corn production. Sign up today for the Allendale Ag Leaders webinar on Tuesday night at 8 pm. Of course it is free.

Trade Estimates for USDA Weekly Export Sales – RTRS
  2012/13 2013/14
  Estimates Estimates
Corn 100-200 tmt 100-300 tmt
Soybeans 0-100 tmt 350-450 tmt
Wheat 0-200 tmt 300-400 tmt
Soymean 0-100 tmt 50-100 tmt
Soyoil 0-15 tmt 0 tmt

Boxed beef was mixed on Wednesday afternoon. However, choice set new highs again at 211.20 up .54. Select was down .78. The Feeder Index was unchanged at 131.53. Cash cattle are reported trading in TX at 124 which is 1.00 lower than last week. Packer margins have improved greatly due to higher wholesale beef prices.  Packers have a short week next week and don’t need as many cattle giving them the upper hand. Pork stocks in cold storage grew by 51 million lbs. last month. Wednesday’s number of 698.816 million lbs. is a new record of any month! The previous high was April 2008’s 663. Pork cutout value was up .65 to 94.34.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Jul #Corn    -3 1/2
  • Jul #Beans   + 3/4
  • Jul #Wheat   +4 1/2
  • Jun #Cattle  +.10
  • Jun #Hogs    -.17
  • Jun Dlr     -.46
  • Jun S&P     -19.00
  • Jul Crude   -1.25
  • Jun Gold    +16.90

 

View Today’s Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538.

Contact Allendale:

Email: service@allendale-inc.com

Farmers Move Some Corn

May 22, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 22, 2013 at 5:10 am. The Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar is only a few days away. Get the full details, sign up today and join Rich Nelson and an agronomist from Legend Seed. Grain futures are mixed as old crop contracts are weaker and new crop contracts show some short covering overnight. Cash movement picked up some yesterday as farmers that finished planting were willing to sell some old inventory. Basis at some Midwest terminals slipped due to this movement of corn and soybeans. We are hearing elevators are now pricing off of the August beans and December corn contracts in some locations. Spreads between old crop and new crop futures contracts are the feature at the CME. Profit taking in the bull spreads should be supported by tight cash supplies of both corn and soybeans. Traders are thinking progress this week could take corn to 90% planted by next Sunday. Funds sold a net 9,000 contracts of corn and 1,000 wheat contracts. Estimates are they bought 4,000 soybean contracts. The Senate will continue to debate the Farm Bill today. Oil World said they believe China will increase soybean imports during May and that it is likely the US will import 32 million bushel of soybeans this year. Boxed beef values were mixed on Tuesday with choice up .41 and select down .44. The feeder cattle index was down .45 to 131.53. Rich Nelson says "there are some clear seasonal price movements that all hog market participants need to be aware of. Typically, hog prices rally into the second or third week of May. After that is accomplished though, cash hogs trade in a big sideways range with some two week swings up and down along the way." Pork cutout values were up .31 on Tuesday. You can subscribe today at a special rate to the Allendale Advisory Report and get the full story.

Markets as of 5:10 AM

  • Jul Corn    – 1/4
  • Jul Beans   -3 3/4
  • Jul Wheat   +2 1/2
  • Jun Cattle  +.25
  • Jun Hogs    +.30
  • Jun Dlr     -.09
  • Jun S&P     +1.00
  • Jul Crude   -.71
  • Jun Gold    +7.70

 

View Today’s Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538.

Contact Allendale:

Email: service@allendale-inc.com

Record Corn Acres Planted in One Week

May 21, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 21, 2013 at 4:45 am. Grain futures are lower being led by old crop corn. Tight supplies and strike of dock workers in Argentina provide support for the July soybean contract. The Crop Progress report yesterday afternoon suggests US corn farmers planted approximately 41.84 million acres of corn and nearly 14 million acres of soybeans last week. Corn planting progress increased from 28% to 71% complete. We are now only 8% behind the 5 year average of 79%. Three major corn producing states of IL, IA and MN planted more than half of their corn last week. Soybean progress improved by 18% to a total of 24% versus 42% average. Spring wheat producers were hard at work by increasing planted acreage to 67%. Winter Wheat condition was downgraded to 31% in the Good/Excellent category. Traders will now focus on when the balance of planting will be complete. There is more talk that we could lose up to 2 million acres of corn due to prevent planting. Checkout Allendale’s weekly meeting Strategy Session for a discussion on how this may impact ending stocks. Money flow seems to be moving out of commodities into equities. Dr. Bernanke will be testifying on Wednesday which will be watched closely for any indications of policy change. June CBOT options expire on Friday before the long weekend. Taking a closer look at the Cattle on Feed report, released Friday, showed that most of the cattle placed during April were heavy weights. There was an increase of 21% of 800 lb. and higher weight cattle and a jump of 20% in the 700 to 799 lb. category. Lighter weight cattle were less than a year ago. One would have to say feedlots want to feed the least amount of corn as possible. Futures firmed up on Monday as the virus fear in pork was confirmed to not be a threat to meat. Boxed beef was higher with choice notching another record high price at 210.34 up .53 and select was up 1.10. The feeder index settled at 131.98. Pork cutout value was down .10 on Monday. Don’t forget to sign up for the May 28, 2013 Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Jul #Corn    -15 1/2
  • Jul #Beans   + 1/2
  • Jul #Wheat   -10 1/2
  • Jun #Cattle  +.50
  • Jun #Hogs    -.07
  • Jun Dlr     +.27
  • Jun S&P     -2.75
  • Jun Crude   -.22
  • Jun Gold    -6.60

 

View Today’s Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538.

Contact Allendale:

Email: service@allendale-inc.com

Could We Have Planted More Than 42% Last Week?

May 20, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 20, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grain futures are mixed with old crop higher and new crop lower. Trade is looking for over 60% of the corn crop to be planted this afternoon. The record corn planted for last week was 42% in 1992. Some are talking about a record planting pace last week which would mean 70% total plantings for corn. Weather gave producers a few more hours to do fieldwork in most of the Midwest over the weekend. A system moved across northern IA into southern MN and WI yesterday. In years of similar delayed planting, corn was able to out produce trend yield 50% of the time. Soybean planting is expected to increase from last week at 6% up to 30 to 35% this week. Spreaders continue to be a market mover as cash corn is extremely tight and planting progress improves. However we have heard of more cash beans moving on Friday after July futures plus basis put prices at highs not seen since March. Beneficial rains fell on the southern plains wheat region over the weekend. Weather forecasts this week will still be a market mover as we approach the Memorial Day holiday next Monday. Brazil’s congress approved legislation to open the state owned ports to private investors in an effort to rid the country of export delays. Managed Money increased long positions by 14,000 corn contracts and 10,762 in soybeans. They also increased short position in wheat by 6,781 contracts last week. Livestock futures fell on Friday due to a concern of a disease in US hogs. The bottom line is that there has been more detection of PED which could cause a tighter supply of hogs in 4 to 6 months as it could reduce litter survival rates. The Cattle on feed report was a bit negative but will the market stay under pressure after the sharp selloff on Friday and the oversold condition of June futures? Boxed beef values were mixed on Friday with choice posting new all-time highs at 209.51 up .74. Select was down .40. The feeder index was up .90 to 135.40. Pork cutout values were up .12. Outside markets are under pressure again this morning. The May Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar is set for May 28 at 8 PM.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • Jul #Corn    +2 3/4
  • Jul #Beans   +4
  • Jul #Wheat   - 3/4
  • Jun #Cattle  Steady-Lower
  • Jun #Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Jun Dlr     -.23
  • Jun S&P     -.25
  • Jun Crude   -.50
  • Jun Gold    -15.20

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538.

Contact Allendale:

Email: service@allendale-inc.com

Traders Prepare for Mondays Planting Report

May 16, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 16, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grain futures are mixed in a quiet overnight session. Outside markets are under pressure again this morning. I will apologize in advance for not putting out a Wake-up Call on Friday morning. Traveling to New York City later this morning and returning on the redeye will cause great inconvenience in getting out the report. Instead I will give all readers free access to the Allendale Advisory Report. See all details tomorrow morning. Planting progress is expected have a significant improvement this week. We are getting more clients saying they are done planting corn. There have been some analysts expecting IA to be 70% planted by Monday’s report. The short term forecast has 1 to 2 inch rains across central IL and IN through the weekend. However southwestern IL looks drier giving farmers a chance to get fieldwork done. The NOPA crush was 9% below last year but in order to hit the USDA target in the balance sheet, crush needs to be 23% below last year’s production. Wheat market was hit by a little wetter forecast for southern plains and technical selling pressure yesterday. Funds are estimated selling a net 5,000 corn contracts and 4,000 wheat contracts. They were estimated even on the soybeans. Brazil stevedores end their 2 day strike at Santos port according to Reuters New. Midwest basis is still firm on lack of grain movement.

USDA releases sales data at 7:30.

TABLE-Trade estimates for USDA weekly grain/soy export sales – RTRS

                  2012/13                    2013/14        

                         Estimates                     Estimates                   

Corn            150,000-250,000        150,000-250,000

Soybeans           zero-100,000        400,000-500,000

Soymeal             zero-100,000              zero-80,000

Soyoil               5,000-15,000                zero         

Wheat                 zero-250,000        250,000-350,000    

The USDA will release the May Cattle on Feed Friday afternoon at 2:00pm. The trade estimates are: On-Feed 96.5, Placed 114.7 and Marketed 102.2. Placements seem large when compared to a year ago low number. Cash cattle trade is still at a standstill as packers are concerned about beef prices next week. Most of Memorial Day demand should be complete by Monday. Boxed beef is higher with choice up 1.86 and select up .68. Packer margins are now near $70 in the black. Nearby hog futures find support on tight cash supplies due to producers concentrating on fieldwork. Pork cutout values are up 1.02 as retailers prepare for the holiday weekend. The May Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar is set for May 28 at 8 PM, register here.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • Jul Corn    – 1/2
  • Jul Beans   +4 1/4
  • Jul Wheat   +3 1/4
  • Jun Cattle  +.20
  • Jun Hogs    +.32
  • Jun Dlr     +.03
  • Jun S&P     -2.00
  • Jun Crude   -.73
  • Jun Gold    -24.90

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Planters Roll Ahead Of Next Rain

May 15, 2013

 

Planters Roll Ahead Of Next Rain

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 15, 2013 at 5:10 am. Commodity prices are under pressure across the board this morning, while grain futures are lower as planting rolls throughout the Midwest. The May contracts of corn and soybeans expired in volatile fashion. The question traders are face with is will the July contract reach the level where May expired. Planting progress and weather forecast will play a big part in the value of July futures contracts. Farmers are holding on to unsold bushels until they can row the corn. Old crop soybean supplies are extremely tight and NOPA will release their crush data later this morning. Trade estimates are below last year’s crush. However in order to reach the USDA’s low target, the monthly crush figure must average 23% below last year’s level. Soybeans are finding support from news out of Sao Paulo, Brazil where Stevedores went on strike Tuesday afternoon at Brazil’s 3 main ports as their government votes on modernizing and privatizing ports. Planters are running with some producers saying they will work around the clock until next rain arrives. A ban of 100 miles either side of I-70 is expected to have significant moisture starting later this week. Technical levels to watch are Dec corn support at 5.20, November soybeans support crosses at 12.00 to 11.87 and July corn has resistance at 6.69.  Cash cattle have bids developing at 124 while feedlots are asking 127 to 128. Product values were higher and set new all-time highs for choice beef at 206.09 up .96. Select was up .24. A steady to higher cash trade could ignite June futures which are oversold and discount to cash. Pork futures saw fund buying yesterday as cutout values improved by .21. Sign up for the special offer for the Allendale Advisory Report.

Markets as of 5:10 AM

  • Jul Corn    -2 1/2
  • Jul Beans   -4 3/4
  • Jul Wheat   -4 3/4
  • Jun Cattle  +.02
  • Jun Hogs    +.22
  • Jun Dlr     +.22
  • Jun S&P     -1.00
  • Jun Crude   -.57
  • Jun Gold    -12.00

 

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Record Slow Planting Pace

May 14, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 14, 2013 at 4:55 am. Grain futures are mixed with some profit taking in corn while soybeans continue to rally. With May contracts expiring today, there are still a few positions which need to be liquidated or rolled. Look for choppy trade as we near the Noon expiration. We’ll update you on market conditions in our daily text, sign up here. Yesterday we saw a large volume of positions being rolled out of May and July into more deferred contracts. The tight supplies and the resistance of farmer selling are supporting cash bids. It is likely producers will have to see the corn out of the bag and  growing in the field before they will clean out the bins. USDA released planting progress yesterday afternoon with 28% of corn planted versus an average estimate of 29% and 65% for 5 year average. Planting pace is the slowest on record since 1984 when we were 29% planted on this date. The I-States have an average of 20% corn planted.  Only 6% of soybeans were planted compared to 24% on average. Spring wheat planting at 43% was a bit larger than what trade was expecting with a 5 yr. average of 63%. Funds were net buyers of 15,000 corn contracts, 3,000 wheat and 5,000 soybeans yesterday. NOPA Crush data will be released on Wednesday morning. These numbers will provide some indication on old crop soybean available supplies. Cash cattle trade is at a standstill with limited demand. Boxed beef values were higher as retailers restock after weekend clearance. Choice was up .15 and select was up .63. Feeder cattle index is 134.34. Pork cutout was up .83 on Monday. Technically it is very important that June cattle futures hold the 120 level. See Allendale Advanced Charts for more technical commentary. Non-subscribers should take advantage of the Special Pricing for the Allendale Advisory Report.

Markets as of 4:55 AM

  • Jul #Corn    -2 1/4
  • Jul #Beans   +5 1/4
  • Jul #Wheat   – 3/4
  • Jun #Cattle  +.12
  • Jun #Hogs    +.12
  • Jun Dlr     -.11
  • Jun S&P     -2.50
  • Jun Crude   -.15
  • Jun Gold    -4.40

 

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Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 service@allendale-inc.com www.allendale-inc.com

How Much Was Planted Last Week?

May 13, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 13, 2013 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are higher but off early session highs. Traders are still digesting the USDA report on Friday which the numbers were bearish. Their forecast for ending stocks to reach 2.004 billion bushel in corn for 2013/14 maybe aggressive thinking. Planting progress this afternoon will tell the story. Many traders are thinking we could have 30% planted, up from 12% last week. There are some expecting that US farmers could have as much as 35 to 40% of corn in the ground. Average for this week is 68% planted. Soybean planting could be 8-10% complete. Weather should be open for a few days this week. The next system is due this weekend and early next week. CBOT May contracts will expire tomorrow. Expect very volatile markets as the open interest is liquidated. Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money reduced longs in soybeans by 18,246 contracts and increased longs in corn by 16,135 contracts. Dec corn has chart support at 5.22 to 5.17 areas. A close below that level would open the door for aggressive selling. The November soybeans have support at the 12.00 level. Allendale will have more comments on the report and the impact on price outlooks at the Monday afternoon research meeting. It will be available to subscribers later today. Boxed beef was mixed on Friday with choice down .51 and select up .17. The feeder cattle index was down .59 to 134.35. Pork cutout values were up .70. Sign up today for the 11:30 update text on your cell phone.

Markets as of 5:10 AM

  • Jul #Corn    +1 3/4
  • Jul #Beans   +1
  • Jul #Wheat   + 3/4
  • Jun #Cattle  Steady-Lower
  • Jun #Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Jun Dlr     +.01
  • Jun S&P     -6.50
  • Jun Crude   -1.00
  • Jun Gold    -8.60

 

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Traders Make Last Minute Adjustments

May 10, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 10, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are lower on profit taking in a quiet overnight session. The focus and concern of grain traders this morning is what the USDA Supply and Demand Report will have to say at 11:00. Get initial reactions from our free text update. We expect there will be something for everyone. Of course, everyone is waiting for the USDA’s first balance sheet of the year for 2013/14 corn and soybeans. This number could impact the world ending stock for corn and soybeans as well. Old crop usage is another number which will be closely watched. Will they increase corn for ethanol or lower export shipments? Wheat is very important on this report, especially new crop. How much of an adjustment will they make for freeze damage in HRW and losses due to flooding in the SRW? Contact your Allendale representative to get immediate reactions after the report has been released, 800-262-7538. Other news: Australian wheat planting conditions improve due to some well needed moisture in the eastern region. Funds bought a net 12,000 corn contracts yesterday and 6,000 each of wheat and soybeans. Cash cattle trade on Thursday was at a standstill. Feedlots were asking for more money after the beef posted new all-time highs on Wednesday. This was followed by another record high yesterday. Choice was up .82 and select was up .40. The feeder index was 134.97 on Thursday. Pork cutout values were up 1.45. A pick up in meat values should have a positive influence on cash livestock. Retailers are stocking their coolers for Memorial Day. Don’t hesitate to call the main office or one of our 17 branch offices with questions about the report or market strategies. Rich Nelson will be recapping the data on a Special YouTube Presentation which should be posted around 12:15. You can get the full story on this and more by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report during our annual Planter’s Special.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Jul Corn    -3 1/4
  • Jul Beans   +5
  • Jul Wheat   -6 1/2
  • Jun Cattle  -.37
  • Jun Hogs    -.02
  • Jun Dlr     +.16
  • Jun S&P     +3.00
  • Jun Crude   -.66
  • Jun Gold    -20.00

 

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Cash Markets Strong As Traders Get Ready For USDA Report

May 09, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 9, 2013 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are mixed. Forecasts are a bit drier this morning which is increasing the chances for planting progress. Traders continue to wrestle with the weather being less than ideal and the probability that the USDA could project a 2 plus billion ending stock for new crop corn. Ethanol production for last week was down 1.6% from last week and 6% lower than last year. Traders view this data as another reason to be concerned about old crop corn ending stocks increasing. The export data being released later this morning could also impact July–Dec spreads. Cash grain traders in Brazil said there were 3 cargoes of soybeans en route for US.  Midwest basis for corn and beans continue to strengthen. Decatur corn was up 5 cents and soybeans up 15 cents. Producers are not very interested in moving grain when they can do fieldwork. Funds sold 6,000 corn and 2,000 wheat contracts on Wednesday while buying a net 4,000 contracts of soybeans. Export Sales estimates for the data to be released at 7:30 this morning. Get our daily midday text for updates on this and other stories.

                        2012/13                  2013/14              
                        Estimates               Estimates                        
 Wheat          zero-200 tmt           300-600 tmt
 Corn             200-400 tmt           200-400 tmt 
 Soybeans      zero-100 tmt           400-600 tmt 
 Soymeal         50-150 tmt           zero-80 tmt   
 Soyoil            zero-10 tmt                zero        

Cash cattle traded this week at 126 which 2.00 lower than last week. Boxed beef prices jump to new all-time highs as retailers buy for Memorial Day and the official beginning of cookout season. Choice was up 3.48 and select up .37. The feeder cattle index is 135.67 down .14. Pork cutout values were down .20. Call your Allendale broker for more market insight. Or get the full story by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report

Markets as of 5:10 AM

  • Jul #Corn    -1
  • Jul #Beans   +4 3/4
  • Jul #Wheat   – 3/4
  • Jun #Cattle  -.12
  • Jun #Hogs    -.07
  • Jun Dlr     +.02
  • Jun S&P     -1.25
  • Jun Crude   -.48
  • Jun Gold    -2.50

 

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Tight Supplies Drive Futures

May 08, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 8, 2013 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are higher as tight supplies of corn and soybeans provide support. Old crop/new crop spreads continue to dominate trading action going into the USDA report Friday. Farmers are busy planting corn and not worried about emptying their bins. Midwest basis for corn and soybeans remains strong. Farmers are in the field and some are working around the clock to get the corn in the ground before the next rain system moves through.  Keep in touch with these stories and current market conditions with Allendale’s free midday text update. China’s soybean imports in April were down 14.8% from last year. A shipping agency in Brazil said yesterday that their loading problems are over at the major ports. This may have been a reason for US gulf basis to weaken a bit yesterday. An analyst group out of South America is expecting Brazil to increase soybean planted acreage next year by 4.3% or about 2.7 million hectares. Funds were estimated to be net buyers of 4,000 corn contracts and 5,000 soybean contracts. A Reuter’s survey of analysts has an average old crop corn ending stocks at 749 million bushels and new crop ending stocks of 1,993 million bushels. Soybean ending stock estimate is for old crop 123 million bushels and new crop 236 million bushels. Boxed beef regained some of Monday’s losses with choice up .93 and select up .65. There were some cattle traded yesterday at 126 in the South. Pork cutout values were up .91 on Tuesday. Meat demand is still the sticking point to rallies in the livestock markets. Today I am traveling to record This Week in Agribusiness where Allendale is a guest market analyst this week. The program will be shown on RFDTV this weekend. Call your Allendale broker for more market insight. Get the full story by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report.

Markets as of 5:15 AM

  • Jul Corn    +1 1/4
  • Jul Beans   +8
  • Jul Wheat   +1 1/2
  • Jun Cattle  -.10
  • Jun Hogs    +.42
  • Jun Dlr     -.24
  • Jun S&P     +.75
  • Jun Crude   -.10
  • Jun Gold    +3.20

 

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Markets Rebound On Planting Data

May 07, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 7, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher. Planting progress for corn in the US was 12% complete vs. 5% last week and 47% on average. The average increase for corn planting is 18% for last week. Soybean progress nationally was 2% compared to average of 12%. Wheat conditions fell by 1% in the good to excellent category. The slowest corn planting pace was 10% in 1984. The yield that year was only slightly below trend. The next question is how much the USDA will lower yield from trend (which is 163.5) on Friday’s supply and demand report. Rich Nelson says it is likely we could see a yield of 159.4 on this report. However ending stock in corn for the 2013/14 marketing year could still be 2.035 million bushel. USDA will use the acres reported in the March Prospective Plantings Report.  Boxed beef values dropped on Monday after posting a record high on Friday for choice. Choice was down 1.42 and select was down .52. Feeder index was up .29 to 135.96.  Pork cutout value was down .17. The balance sheet equation for pork this year is simple: Pork production down 1% plus exports are down 18% which equates to 3% more pork for US consumers. Call your Allendale broker to discuss in detail. Get the full story by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Jul #Corn    +4 1/2
  • Jul #Beans   +7 3/4
  • Jul #Wheat   +5
  • Jun #Cattle  -.05
  • Jun #Hogs    +.12
  • Jun Dlr     +.00
  • Jun S&P     +1.00
  • Jun Crude   -.56
  • Jun Gold    -6.60

 

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Drier Forecast Spooks Buyers

May 06, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 6, 2013 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are lower. Less rain than expected over the weekend and more open weather this week has buyers turning into sellers. This week traders are battling the weather and the May 10, 2013 Supply and Demand report. The weather forecast has dried up some for this week and models are conflicting on what path the next system will be taking. The report on Friday will be the first look at what the USDA is thinking for new corn and soybeans. It is anticipated by traders that it will be bearish. The USDA does, however, have a history of adjusting yield on this report due to late planting progress. This afternoon the planting progress is estimated to be between 12 and 18% depending how much you think got planted before the rain and snow. Last week we had 5% planted and average is 47%. It is likely we will get a soybean planting number today and estimates are 3% planted versus 12% average. Managed funds bought a net 33,258 corn contracts last week while adding 17,605 soybeans and 15,091 wheat. They are now only net short 5,779 wheat contracts. Brazil reports April bean exports late on Friday with a surprising 8.23 mmt versus the prior record of 5.9 mmt. We would have to anticipate May and June loading to be large as well. US basis remains strong which should support old crop grain contracts. Problems between the grain companies and longshoreman are heating up again in PNW. One company locked out its workers on Saturday. Choice beef rose to new all-time highs as retailers prepared for a nice weekend for grilling and they are starting to book supplies for the Memorial Day demand. Boxed beef closed mixed on Friday with choice up 1.10 and select down .51. The feeder index closed at 135.67 down .20. Pork values were .32. Get the full story by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report.

 Markets as of 5:15 AM

  • Jul #Corn    -15 1/4
  • Jul #Beans   + 3/4
  • Jul #Wheat   – 9 3/4
  • Jun #Cattle  Steady-Lower
  • Jun #Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Jun Dlr     +.04
  • Jun S&P     +.25
  • Jun Crude   +.64
  • Jun Gold    +11.60

 

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Quiet Session Overnight In Grains

May 03, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 3, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grain futures are mostly steady to higher. Stronger cash corn and planting delays are providing support to futures. The short term weather forecast is likely to keep producers out of fields until the middle of next week. Then the forecast is open only for a few days before the next system moves in. It should be noted that various models are in disagreement. Traders are speculating there will be less acres of corn planted due to delays. Many are talking about producers taking prevent planting in the northwestern corn growing areas. It seems a little early to be betting for major switching of corn to soybeans. The take away from yesterday’s weekly export sales data was China cancelling 276,300 tonnes to leave net sales at a negative 109,800 tonnes. Reuters news service is saying Argentina beans are being loaded to go to China and not the US. Kansas wheat tour results from the southeast yields are better than expected. Wheat exports were better than trade was expecting for new crop. Statistics Canada will be releasing production estimates later this morning. Funds bought an estimated 12,000 corn contracts and 3,000 wheat while they were even in soybeans. Goldman Roll begins on May 7th in livestock futures at CME. Packers were more aggressive and cattle traded yesterday at steady to 3.00 higher with 131 paid in NE. Boxed beef was stronger again with choice up 1.09 and select .81. This puts wholesale beef near record highs made in 2003. Pork cutout value was down .39 on Thursday. The snow across IA and MN has disrupted live movement again this spring. Feeder Cattle index was down .10 at 135.87. Get the full story by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report.

 Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • Jul #Corn    + 3/4
  • Jul #Beans   +5
  • Jul #Wheat   + 1/4
  • Jun #Cattle  +.10
  • Jun #Hogs    +.17
  • Jun Dlr     -.22
  • Jun S&P     -.75
  • Jun Crude   +.53
  • Jun Gold    +10.30

 

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Tight Old Crop Supplies Lead Charge

May 02, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 2, 2013 at 5:15 am. Grain futures are higher as planting worries provide support in corn. Soybeans are finding strength on short covering after yesterday’s steep losses. Weather forecasts for the 10 to 15 day time slot have been waffling between drier and warmer to wetter and cooler. Producers are aggressive on getting the corn in the ground ahead of the rainfall forecast for this weekend. Keep up-to-date on current market conditions by subscribing to our free daily market text. Spreaders moving out of the May will continue to be a feature for the balance of the week. The ethanol production number, released yesterday, was slightly higher than the previous week and the highest production since last June. Allendale’s Rich Nelson says that ethanol production for the year is still 10.6% below last year’s levels when the USDA has a goal of a 9.2% decrease. Many ethanol plants where corn is available are running at full capacity due better margins. Cash corn bids rose sharply yesterday as a Nebraska plant was bidding 83 over the July. Soybean basis slipped as end-users filled immediate needs on Monday. Yield reports are coming in with a wide variance from the wheat crop tour in Kansas. Weekly export sales numbers will be out at 7:30 am. Trade estimates are: corn a combined total of 700 tmt to 1.0 mmt, soybeans 400 tmt to 800 tmt and wheat 450 tmt to 650 tmt. Funds were estimated to have sold a net 4,000 corn contracts, 7,000 soybeans and 2,000 wheat contracts yesterday. We should have all world traders back at work today after the May Day holiday. Boxed beef prices jump on Wednesday to highest level in 10 years. Choice was up 3.10 to 199.49. The record high price for choice was 201.18 in Oct of 2003. Select was up 1.79. The USDA is reporting some sales in the South at 128 steady with last week. Pork cutout values were 1.17. The feeder cattle index was up .17 to 135.97. Get the full story by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report.

Markets as of 5:15 AM

  • Jul Corn    +4 3/4
  • Jul Beans   +4 3/4
  • Jul Wheat   + 1/4
  • Jun Cattle  +.70
  • Jun Hogs    +.37
  • Jun Dlr     +.22
  • Jun S&P     +3.50
  • Jun Crude   +.53
  • Jun Gold    +7.50

 

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Spreaders Adjusts As Weather Hinders Planting

May 01, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 1, 2013 at 5:05 am. Grain futures are lower on profit taking and broad based commodity weakness. Most of Europe is closed today as they celebrate Labour Day. Weather forecasts are wet and cold which has not changed much from early in the week. The GFS and the Euro weather models are suggesting frost to freezing temps could reach the TX panhandle on Friday morning. We should get some official results from the Wheat Quality Tour later this week. We’ll keep you updated with our daily text message, sent out at 11:30AM. Traders are already looking ahead to the May 10th USDA Supply and Demand report. Those who attended the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar last night realize it is likely the USDA will cut yield projection due to late planting on this report. Rich, Frank, Brian and Jeremy did a great job on the presentation last night. A taped version will be available later this week. There was some farmer selling of soybeans after Monday’s rally and stronger basis. Processors will not have to be as aggressive until newly purchased grain is used. There were no corn or soybean deliveries yesterday however there were 465 wheat deliveries. Bull spreading is very volatile as traders move out of the May contracts.  The gap left after the April S+D report in the July corn chart was not completely filled during Tuesday’s trade. Yesterday’s high will be key resistance until gap is filled. Cash cattle trade is still not reporting any sales this week. Product is strong with choice up 1.60 and select up 1.82. The feeder index was set at 135.80, up .36. IA farmers have been focusing on planting corn and not marketing hogs which has supported cash trade. Pork cutout was down 1.51 on Tuesday. Go to Allendale’s Website for more news and marketing ideas. Get the full story by subscribing to the Allendale Advisory Report.

Markets as of 5:05 AM

  • Jul Corn    -7
  • Jul Beans   -6 3/4
  • Jul Wheat   -12
  • Jun Cattle  -.10
  • Jun Hogs    -.32
  • Jun Dlr     -.15
  • Jun S&P     +1.75
  • Jun Crude   -.87
  • Jun Gold    -1.60

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