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September 2013 Archive for The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Livestock Markets Take Spotlight Until 11:00 AM

Sep 30, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 30, 2013 at 5:15 am.  Grain futures are quiet with corn slightly higher, soybeans lower and wheat lower.

Traders are waiting for the release of USDA Quarterly Stocks report later this morning. Trade average estimates are: corn 681 million bushels, soybeans 124 million bushels and wheat 1.913 billion bushels.

On a trip from northern IL to near St Louis, Mo this weekend I thought I would see a lot of harvesting being done. Not the case until I got to southern IL where many producers just started on corn last Friday. Talking to several producers who were harvesting corn reiterated the same thing we were hearing all week. Corn yields are a surprise with most yields 10 to 30 bushels per acre more than what they were expecting. Clinton county IL corn yields were the best they have ever harvested.

The favorable weather over the next 4 to 5 days should allow harvest to get in full swing although producers are concerned about the slow dry down. Movement of newly harvested grain seems to be going into farmer’s bins rather than being marketed. Processors are starting to get anxious about acquiring supplies.

The CFTC report showed managed money funds were net sellers of corn by 22,134 and soybeans by 12,499 contracts. They were a net buyer in wheat of 15,882.

Trade is expecting corn harvest to be 15 to 17% complete on this afternoon’s report. Soybean harvest could be 12 to 14% complete.

The possibility of the government shutdown is causing traders to be cautious about building positions.

The USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is considered being a little disappointing for the bulls. The total hog herd was 100.3% of last year when the trade was expecting a 1.6% decrease. Kept for Marketing, the USDA counted them at 0.3% larger than last year when trade was expecting a 1.9% decrease. The Kept for breeding number at 100% showed pork producers did not increase herd size as much as trade was expecting. The early opening calls are .50 to 1.00 lower for lean hog futures. We would caution that the opening call could get weaker the closer we get to 9:05 as funds are holding a record long position. Pork cutout value was down .30 on Friday.

Cattle futures will likely start lower in sympathy with hogs but may find support from long hog/short cattle spread unwinding and tight market-ready cattle supplies. Beef cutout values were lower with choice down .97 and select down .90.

The week ahead will likely have volatility as the markets wait for Congress to make a decision. Stay in touch with Allendale by calling 800-262-7538 or email research@allendale-inc.com with your questions.

Markets as of 5:15 AM

  • Dec Corn    + 1/2
  • Nov Beans   -5 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   -1 1/4
  • Oct Cattle  Called Lower
  • Oct Hogs    Called Lower
  • Dec Dlr     +.02
  • Dec S&P     -13.00
  • Nov Crude   -1.05
  • Dec Gold    -1.60
Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Spreaders Support Grain Trading Volume

Sep 27, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 27, 2013 at 5:15 am.  Grain futures are higher in a very quiet overnight session. The uncertainty of a potential government shutdown in the US adds to rationale for a reduction in volume and volatility in grain futures ahead of the stock report.

Spread unwinding between soybeans, corn and wheat help prop up trading volume going into the end of month.

Wheat has taken the lead at the CME as weather problems in China and Brazil has degraded the quality of harvestable crop. Because they are such large wheat consuming countries, they have been buying high quality supplies around the world. The previously reported large fund short positions in wheat futures has also been a factor of support.

Ukraine winter wheat seeding is expected to be reduced due to recent heavy rains.

China sets its 2014 wheat import quota at 9.6 million tonnes and its corn import quota at 7.2 million tonnes.

Central IL soybean basis has slipped to the lowest level since early 2012 as harvest picks up momentum. Bunge announces that they will restart their Emporia, KS soybean processing plant within a few weeks as new crop beans supplies become available.

Harvest reports on corn continue to be above producer expectations which could have USDA raising yields on the October 11th supply and demand report. Traders seem to be reluctant to press prices from current levels until confirmation of larger yields is provided by USDA.

Monday’s quarterly stocks report has traders eyeing wheat stocks for indications of abnormal usage during the last quarter because of tight corn supplies.

Talk of Mexico enforcing the anti-dumping on poultry which they passed earlier this year. This could have an impact on the acceleration of poultry production in the US and add competition for higher beef and pork prices at the retail counter.

Livestock futures are supported by tight market ready hog supplies. This afternoon the USDA will release the September Hogs and Pigs Report which traders are hoping will explain the disappearance of market ready hog supplies. Lean hog futures remain in an uptrend led by strength in the nearby contracts. Pork cutout values were up 1.09.

Beef cutout values are not providing much support for higher fed cattle prices with choice up .01 and select down .42 on Thursday. Cash cattle are expected to develop late today. CME Feeder Index is 158.79 up 1.31.

Markets as of 5:15 AM

  • Dec Corn    + 1/2
  • Nov Beans   +5 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   -1 1/4
  • Oct Cattle  -.00
  • Oct Hogs    +.10
  • Dec Dlr     -.10
  • Dec S&P     -5.25
  • Nov Crude   -.50
  • Dec Gold    +1.80
Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Wheat the Sleeper Is Getting Attention!

Sep 26, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 26, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are mixed with corn and soybeans lower while wheat is higher. Traders are dealing with good harvest weather, a crop report and Washington politics.

I returned late last night from a day trip to Fort Wayne, IN to visit David and Jean Kohli at Allendale’s Branch office. The combines were quiet across northern IN however the early corn had already been harvested. The bean fields look as if they were ready to harvest any day. The standing crop appeared to have the potential of high yields for both corn and soybeans.

The Quarterly Stocks Report on Monday is getting a lot of talk amongst the trade. They are concerned about the tight ending stocks for soybeans however wheat maybe the sleeper. Trade estimates have a wide range as this report will take into account harvest supplies as well as abnormal usage demand due to tight corn supplies.

Weather conditions in wheat growing areas in Argentina and Brazil are less than desirable. Brazil, a large user of wheat is looking for high quality product to offset their internal quality problems.

Harvest results continue to come in as many producers are surprised about bean yields. Some yields have been reported in the mid to upper 60s in MN while SD harvest is yielding near 20 bushels per acre.

Corn harvest results continue to run well above expectations. One has to wonder if the guys with poor yields are just not talking.

Weekly export sales data will be released at 7:30 this morning. Trade estimates are for corn 400 to 600 tmt, wheat 500 to 700 tmt, soybeans 2.3 to 2.8 mmt, soymeal 20 to 100 tmt and soyoil 5 to 10 tmt.

October lean hog futures continues to rally as tight hog supplies, technical buying and short covering provide the parabolic move. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be released on Friday at 2:00 PM. Trade estimates are: All hogs 98.6%, Kept for Breeding 101.5% and Kept for Marketing 98.3%. Pork cutout values were up 1.13 on Wednesday.

Cattle futures are being supported by the strength in pork. Demand for beef is sluggish as beef cutout values were mixed. Choice was down .18 and select was up .42. Livestock markets are overbought, use risk protection in these potentially volatile markets.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    -1
  • Nov Beans   -8 3/4
  • Sep Wheat   +2 1/4
  • Oct Cattle  -.10
  • Oct Hogs    -.40
  • Dec Dlr     +.15
  • Dec S&P     +3.50
  • Nov Crude   +.13
  • Dec Gold    -2.80

 

View the Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Will USDA Drop Ending Stocks Below 125?

Sep 25, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 25, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are higher in the overnight session as the battle with uncertainty drives traders to the sideline. The USDA report on Monday, the debt ceiling debate, the potential shutdown of the government and potential fed policy changes have markets on edge.

Thanks to all who attended the September Allendale’s Ag Leaders Webinar last night. If you were unable to attend you can listen to the recorded session here.

Trade average estimates for Monday’s USDA quarterly stocks report for Sept 1 wheat stocks 1.913 billion bushels, corn 681 million bushels, and soybean 124 million bushels.

Allendale’s estimate for old crop bean stocks will be lower than USDA previous estimate of 125 million bushel at 112 million bushels. Exports beat USDA by 13 million bushel and the other categories roughly met USDA hopes. The report will be released on Monday at 11:00 AM.

Allendale estimates old crop corn stocks will be 686 million, bigger than their 655 previous estimates. We believe exports and ethanol came in smaller than USDA hoped.

Watch December wheat futures today due to the 1st close above the 50 day moving average on Tuesday.

NASS officially starts the survey of producers for the data which will be used for the October 11th crop production report. This survey will continue through Oct 5th.

We’ve received reports from Cass County, ND where early bean harvest has surprised the farmer with 36 bushels per acre. Soybeans harvested in Grundy County, IA yielded 62 bushels per acre on a crop that was planted on May 2.

Livestock futures received strength from the confirmation of Smithfield stockholders to go forward with the sale to Shuanghui International Holdings. Harvest getting started in IA has slowed movement of cash hogs plus the discount of October futures to cash index is supporting the buying of nearby hog contracts. The USDA Hogs and Pigs report will be released on Friday at 2:00 pm. Allendale’s estimates are for All Hogs 99.2, Kept for Breeding 101.4 and Kept for Marketing 99.0. Pork cutout values were unchanged.

Live cattle futures are following the lead from the hogs. Cash markets are quiet and beef cutout values are higher. Choice is up .22 and select is up .26. The CME Feeder index is 157.11 up .19. December futures closed Tuesday at the highest level since March 04, 2013.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    +2 3/4
  • Nov Beans   +7 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   +5 1/4
  • Oct Cattle  +.07
  • Oct Hogs    +.22
  • Dec Dlr     -.15
  • Dec S&P     -.25
  • Nov Crude   +.54
  • Dec Gold    +7.10

 

View the Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Early Harvest Yields Continue To Surprise Producers

Sep 24, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 24, 2013 at 4:45 am.  Grain futures are higher on short-covering led by soybeans.

Traders were expecting soybean conditions to improve but USDA kept the G/E at 50%. Soybean harvest was 3% complete compared to 9% average. With the majority of harvest still ahead of us the recent rains have to be viewed as helpful to crop development.

Corn conditions improved by 2% to 55% in the G/E category which is a counter-seasonal move for this late in the growing season. The recent rains must have been beneficial to late planted corn. Harvest progress increased by 3% to 7% completed versus 16% average.

Argentina corn growing areas remain dry and there is some talk of switching to soybeans. It seems a little early to be making those decisions as optimum corn planting time is mid-September to mid-October. The rule of thumb in the US is "plant in the dust, your bins will bust." An example is the corn being harvested now in the cornbelt was planted early in dry conditions. Yields continue to be reported in the mid 200’s.

With the lack of new fundamental news, traders will be focusing on other influences. The next few weeks are packed with some major economic events such as: Congress’s debate on the budget, their standoff on the debt ceiling and the potential tapering of the bond buying program. All of these issues could have an impact on futures markets.

The grain futures also have the Quarterly Stock Report on Monday morning at 11:00 AM. Traders are looking at the recent trend in corn ending stocks and would expect a smaller number as the late harvest could have reduced supplies in the last month of marketing year.

Soybean stocks will be watched closely and could have the biggest impact on prices as the USDA wrangles with that 125 million bushel carryover target.

Livestock futures reacted to the bullish cattle on feed report and now are waiting for an improvement in cash trade. Beef cutout values were higher on Monday with choice up 1.16 and select up .83. The CME Feeder index was up .03 at 156.92.

Lean hog traders are trying to anticipate the USDA Hogs and Pigs report on Friday afternoon. The trade is looking for answers to "where have all the hogs gone?". Pork cutout values were down .12.

The September Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar is tonight at 8:00 PM Sign up NOW!

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Dec Corn    +2
  • Nov Beans   +13 3/4
  • Sep Wheat   +1 1/4
  • Oct Cattle  +.25
  • Oct Hogs    +.40
  • Dec Dlr     +.08
  • Dec S&P     -2.00
  • Nov Crude   -.48
  • Dec Gold    -9.70

 

View the Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Harvest Momentum To Pickup This Week

Sep 23, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 23, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are slightly lower as weather conditions improve for harvest this week.

The markets started lower on Sunday night as traders assess the weekend rains and the harvest week ahead. The weekend rains were as expected but we did get a little frost in the Northwest Midwest. However there is no frost in the forecast through Oct 7th.

Soybean futures have found some buyers after the November futures were down 66 cents last week. Next Monday, the USDA releases the Quarterly stocks report which will be watched closely by traders. The question being asked is "where will the USDA find enough soybeans to meet the exports and domestic usage?"

The crop conditions report this afternoon could show an improvement in the good to excellent category. Last week’s rains are expected to have improved late-planted soybeans. The bean harvest number could increase to 4 to 5%.

Corn harvest could be as much as 10 to 12% complete on this afternoon’s report. Corn yield updates from around Springfield, IL were running 15 to 20 bushels higher than expected however Champaign county IL producers are harvesting corn yielding less than their 5 year APH.

Allendale’s September Ag Leaders Webinar is set for September 24th, Tuesday at 8:00 PM.

Informa is looking for soybean production to be 3.224 million bushel which is higher than the USDA at 3.144.

The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed Managed Money funds increased their net short positions by 39,525 last week while increasing soybean long positions by only 1,818.

Cattle on Feed Report results– On Feed 93%, Placed 89.0, Marketed 96.0

The Cattle on Feed report came in even a little more bullish than expected. USDA’s survey of the nation’s feedlots found that August Placements were 10.9% lower than August of last year. This Placement number, at 1.788 million head, is the lowest August of this current data series which goes back to 1996. It was a full 205,000 head smaller than the previous August low of 2005.

Cash cattle traded 1.00 higher than last week in late week trade. Beef cutout values were lower on Friday with choice down .62 and select down .94. The CME Feeder Index was up .12 at 156.89. Producer harvesting this week could reduce some movement of hogs. Pork cutout values were up .96. Look for CME livestock futures to open higher.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    -1 1/2
  • Nov Beans   – 3/4
  • Sep Wheat   + 3/4
  • Oct Cattle  Steady-Higher
  • Oct Hogs    Steady-Higher
  • Dec Dlr     -.04
  • Dec S&P     +2.50
  • Nov Crude   +.16
  • Dec Gold    -11.90

 

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Does Breaking Technical Support Mean a Weak Close?

Sep 20, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 20, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are lower as traders see a dry week ahead and harvest should get into full swing. Commodity markets are lower across the board as funds take a risk-off attitude.

Corn and soybean basis are steady as recent rains have slowed harvest. More rain is expected over the next 24 hours but then clearing from west to east for harvest next week.

Technical support in November soybeans was taken out overnight. A close below 13.31 could activate more selling on the close today.

Spreading by funds has been a major feature in the grains. It is estimated funds bought 5,000 corn and 4,000 wheat while selling a net 5,000 soybeans.

The US House passes a bill to cut food stamps by $40 billion which Obama said he will veto if the cut was anything more than $10 billion.

Argentina officials cut the wheat production area by .5 million hectares. Corn plantings are expected to be down 6.6% from last year.

Harvest yields that are being reported from early corn and soybean harvest have producers pleased with the results.

Cash cattle markets remain at a standstill. Beef cutout values were mixed with choice down .28 and select up .39. Cattle traders may look for some evening up ahead of this afternoon Cattle on Feed Report. Trade estimates are On Feed 93.4%, Placed 91.7% and Marketed 95.3% of a year ago.

Market hogs were higher in IA-MN yesterday but futures were lower. Funds were taking profits on the long hog/short cattle spreads they have put on the over last few weeks. Pork cutout values were down .22 on Thursday.

Allendale’s September Ag Leaders Webinar is set for September 24th, Tuesday at 8:00 PM

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    -1 1/2
  • Nov Beans   -14
  • Sep Wheat   -4 1/2
  • Oct Cattle  -.05
  • Oct Hogs    -.90
  • Dec Dlr     +.02
  • Dec S&P     -.50
  • Oct Crude   -.23
  • Oct Gold    -11.50

 

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Will The Weak US Dollar Help Export Trade?

Sep 19, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 19, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are higher after the Fed decides not to taper its bond buying program. The US dollar broke through technical support which makes US products more competitive because of currency exchange rates. Traders are now using the rain expected in the cornbelt over the next few days as friendly because it will slow harvest progress.

This morning we will get the USDA’s weekly export sales report. Trade estimates are for corn 450 to 650 tmt, soybeans 650 to 750 tmt, soymeal 20 to 150 tmt, soyoil 5 to 10 tmt and wheat 500 to 650 tmt.

Informa will issue a 2013 Small Grains Summary and their initial acreage estimates for 2014 on Friday at 10:30.

Corn and soybean basis setback by as much as 15 to 20 cents at central IL processors. Bids also came under pressure in the western corn a well.

Harvest reports out of Ohio on some soybeans surprised producers by 8 to 10 bushels better than normal. A Northern IL producer reported soybeans at 52 bushels per acre and hopes it is not his best beans he harvests this year. Corn yields are surprisingly better than most producers were expecting.

Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday kept the central bank’s $85 billion per month bond-buying program in place, saying that they wanted to see more evidence that the economy can sustain improvement before tapering purchases.

Ukraine says their corn harvest will be 29 mmt which allows them to export up to 18 mmt and become the 2nd ranked corn export in the world.

Autumn Moon Festival has China on holiday through the weekend which could keep trading volume light at the CME for the rest of the week.

Livestock futures find support from firmer product values and weaker US dollar.  Traders are looking for a pickup in export demand. Beef cutout values were higher with choice up .28 and select up .75. CME Feeder index is 156.77 up .34. Cash hog markets were lower in IA-MN on Tuesday but futures markets continue to find support from fund buying. The pork cutout values were up .91 on Wednesday.

Allendale’s September Ag Leaders Webinar is set for September 24 at 8:00 pm. Signup TODAY at www.allendale-inc.com.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    +4 1/4
  • Nov Beans   +10 1/2
  • Dec Wheat   +7 3/4
  • Oct Cattle  +.65
  • Oct Hogs    -.22
  • Dec Dlr     -.11
  • Dec S&P     +7.50
  • Oct Crude   +.68
  • Oct Gold    +54.00

 

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Bulls Try To Stand Their Ground

Sep 18, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 18, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures test support and are trading near session highs.

The FSA numbers were initially considered friendly but after more analysis trade realized that the data was inconclusive. We now have to look for some positive news to feed the bulls. Weather forecasts have more rain for the central cornbelt over the next few days although it may be too late to do a lot of good for soybeans. The forecast is without any frost threats at least for the next 2 weeks.

Harvest continues to move North with reports from a producer in Boone, IA getting 210 bushels and 54# test weight from a field of corn. This was a surprise due to the lack of rainfall. Producers were rushing to harvest corn as quick delivery bids carried a considerable premium. As this premium disappeared early this week producers quickly started to fill their own bins. Late yesterday we saw processor bids rise as corn and soybeans stopped coming to market. This kind of activity is likely to occur until farmer owned storage is full.

Brazilian soybean crushers are struggling to procure enough beans to keep plants operating. This is after Brazil has recorded a record harvest of 81.5 mmt. A reason farmers are holding on to soybeans is because of  the wild inflation in that country. It is better to hold hard assets than cash.

The US House of Representatives vote on cutting the food stamp funding by $40 billion will likely come down to a close vote as some Republicans are not in favor of the cuts.

The chart gap of ½ cent in November beans is still support at 13.31 ½. Dec corn took out support and closed at the lowest levels in over a month. The next support level in Dec corn is 4.45 ¾. The Dec Wheat is still holding support but remains a follower of corn.

Traders continue to show discouragement with the cash cattle market. Feedlots are posting an asking price of $125. The current battle is between adequate supplies and slack demand. Beef cutout values were lower with choice down .01 and select down .67. The CME Feeder index is at 156.43 up .10.

Pork cutout values were up 1.90. Profit taking by longs in the nearby lean hog futures pushed prices to test uptrend support. Higher product values, technicals and tight market ready supplies are keeping futures in an uptrend. Sign up for the Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar which will be held next Tuesday evening.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    +1 3/4
  • Nov Beans   + 1/2
  • Sep Wheat   +2 1/4
  • Oct Cattle  -.37
  • Oct Hogs    -.30
  • Dec Dlr     -.04
  • Dec S&P     -2.00
  • Oct Crude   -.77
  • Oct Gold    -6.90

 

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Grain Markets Wait for FSA Data

Sep 17, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 17, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are higher as traders wait for the release of the FSA’s prevent plantings report.  

The eroding basis in soybeans has traders willing to get out of longs in futures but will producers really move a lot of beans at harvest? Their bins are empty and the need for cash is not a reason to sell at weaker prices.

Weekend rains may have helped the later maturing soybeans and the forecast is for another system to move through the cornbelt later this week. Crop conditions showed beans are maturing rapidly and if moisture help is on the way, it needs to get here quickly. The USDA dropped soybean conditions by 2% to 50% G/E.

Corn harvest is picking up speed as more of our customers are getting started. Early harvest yields are still coming in better than farmers were expecting in most areas. Crop conditions for corn dropped 1% to 53% in the good to excellent category.

The NOPA crush number was in line with what was needed to meet USDA projections on the September Supply & Demand report. The quarterly stocks report released on September 30 now becomes a very important number in determining ending stocks for soybeans.

The FOMC meeting begins today and the minutes of the meeting will be released tomorrow. Will the Fed begin tapering the money they dump into the system every month? The trade is expecting about a $10 billion reduction.

Lean Hog futures are the favorite of managed money as their long positions continue to grow and set new records on a weekly CFTC Report. Pork cutout values were down 1.45 on Monday. The recent hot weather, PED virus and the buildup of breeding herds are keeping market hog supplies tight.

Beef cutout values were mixed with choice up .33 and select down .25. Cash cattle trade has no bids at this time. The CME Feeder Index was up .40 to 156.33. Live cattle futures are waiting for some positive news from the product side as fed cattle supplies will get tighter in coming week. Friday the USDA will release the September COF report.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    +3 1/4
  • Nov Beans   +2 1/2
  • Sep Wheat   +3 3/4
  • Oct Cattle  -.27
  • Oct Hogs    -.72
  • Dec Dlr     -.13
  • Dec S&P     -2.25
  • Oct Crude   -.52
  • Oct Gold    -.50

 

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Will This Week’s Reports Impact Grain Prices?

Sep 16, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 16, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are mixed due to profit-taking and weekend rains.

The rains across the northern cornbelt could be viewed as overall positive or negative to markets. The 10 to 15 day weather models are void of frost concerns.

The week ahead should be interesting as several reports are on the slate which could have an impact on grain markets. This morning at 11:00 AM, NOPA will release their August crush data. Tomorrow morning the FSA will release updates on prevent planted acres. The trade is expecting a total of 6.8 million acres of corn, beans and wheat.

Wednesday at midday, the FMOC minutes will be released where the Fed watchers are expecting an announcement that theFed will begin tapering. There are also crop conditions this afternoon and weekly export sales on Thursday morning.

Early corn harvest yield results continue to be better than producers were expecting. There may be a few soybeans harvested this week but most beans need 10 days to 2 weeks before they are ready. Traders will be debating whether the weekend rains are beneficial to soybean yields.

Weekend chatter has traders thinking the Canadian wheat production could be as high as 33 mmt compared to the USDA’s estimate of 31.5 mmt.

There was more talk over the weekend about dry conditions in Argentina which could cause producers to switch from corn to soybeans. It seems a little early to get too excited about though.

Chart Picture: Soybeans remain in a trading range. Wheat is holding long term support at 6.35 in Dec contract. Corn futures have broken recent support in the overnight session.

The CME Feeder Index is 155.93 down .43. Beef cutout values were lower on Friday with choice down 1.16 and select down .56. Cash cattle traded last week at 123 which was steady with the previous week. Pork cutout values were up 1.34. The September Cattle on Feed report will be released on Friday.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    + 3/4
  • Nov Beans   -14 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   +3 1/4
  • Oct Cattle  Steady
  • Oct Hogs    Steady
  • Dec Dlr     -.32
  • Dec S&P     +19.25
  • Oct Crude   -1.25
  • Oct Gold    +8.50

 

View the Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Can Nov Beans Punch Through $14.09?

Sep 13, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 13, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are mixed. Soybeans are testing 14.00 while corn and wheat are lower. Financial markets are on the defensive as traders prepare for next week’s FOMC meeting.

A big thanks to the folks at Red River Valley Farm Network for the hospitality at the Big Iron Show and to Mick Kjar from Valley News Live in Fargo, ND. And a special thanks to Gerry and Hattie Melvin for being a gracious host. This morning we are reporting from somewhere near Minneapolis, MN on the way back to McHenry, IL.

The USDA managed to give us numbers that can easily be believed and others that cause a little head scratching to justify. The pod count and pod weight used by the USDA seem to leave some room for adjustments on upcoming reports. Allendale’s analysis suggests soybean yields will get smaller by the final production report in January. Soybean futures have resistance at 14.09 and a close above that level would suggest a move to the 15.00 level. Bulls have control of the market at the moment.

USDA corn data is a confirmation that producers should be making marketing decisions on rallies. Harvest reports continue to come in from the southern half of the cornbelt. Farmers are surprised by the larger than expected yields results from early planted corn.

The FSA will update prevent planting data on Tuesday which will be watch closely by traders.

The September contracts will go off the board today. There were 4 corn deliveries and 58 wheat deliveries against the September Futures this morning.

Goldman Sachs raised their price projection for 2013/2014 soybeans by $2.00 per bushel from 10.50 to 12.50 after yesterday’s report.

Funds bought an estimated net 16,000 soybean contracts, sold 9,000 corn contracts and bought 3,000 wheat contracts yesterday.

Japan buys 113,572 tonnes of wheat in various amounts from US, Canada and Australia.

With all the attention on the grain markets, livestock futures were moved by funds rolling positions out of nearby to the deferred contracts. Tight cash hog supplies continue to underpin the nearby futures. Pork cutout values were down 1.06 on Thursday. Cattle futures traders are waiting for cash market action. Thus far the bids and asks are several dollars apart. Beef cutout values were lower with choice down .08 and select down 1.24.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    -1
  • Nov Beans   +2 1/2
  • Sep Wheat   +4 3/4
  • Oct Cattle  +.57
  • Oct Hogs    +.57
  • Dec Dlr     +.09
  • Dec S&P     -2.5
  • Oct Crude   -.96
  • Oct Gold    -18.60

 

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If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Traders Wait For A Possible USDA Surprise!

Sep 12, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 12, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are mixed in the overnight session ahead of the USDA Report.

We are in cool Fargo, ND this morning. The trip from Mankato, MN to Fargo yesterday had crop conditions for the bull and the bear. The soybean crop looks to be hit the hardest from the dry conditions across MN into ND. Corn looked like it has a much better chance to be average production. I did not see many fields of corn that would be greatly effected by a frost after October 1.

The USDA will give us their estimates for crop production at 11:00 am today.

2013 US corn production average trade estimate is 13.62 billion bushel. USDA August estimate was 13.763 billion bushel and the 2012 final production was 10.78.

US corn yield for 2013 average trade estimate is 153.69 BPA. The range was 150.2 to 157.2 BPA.

US soybean production average estimate is 3.140 billion bushels with a range of 2.98 to 3.239 billion bushels. The August USDA estimate was 3.255 billion bushel and 2012 final was 3.015 billion bushel.

US soybean average trade estimate for yield is 41.172 BPA with a range of 39.0 (Allendale) to 42.4 BPA. USDA August estimate was 42.6 BPA and 2012 final was 39.6 BPA.

Estimates for USDA’s export sales report to be released at 7:30 am: Wheat 450 to 650 tmt, corn 400 to 500 tmt, soybeans 650 to 800 tmt, soymeal 50 to 150 tmt, soyoil 5 to 10 tmt.

Elevators and processors have dropped their bids to fully new crop which is a drop of 1.20 a bushel is less than a week. More end-users are posting basis that are -19 to -30 the Dec futures. Cash merchandisers are reporting a bit more movement of corn yesterday adding pressure to basis.

September futures go off the board on Friday.

Livestock markets are quiet. Cash cattle trade is at a standstill. Beef cutout values were mixed on Wednesday with choice up .20 and select down .26. Pork futures are pressured by funds rolling out of the October. Cash markets are weaker with larger supplies expected to increase next week when weather cools. Pork cutout values were up 1.14 on Wednesday.

I will be at the Red River Farm Network tent at 1:30 this afternoon. Stop by and say hi!

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    -2 1/4
  • Nov Beans   +4 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   -1 3/4
  • Oct Cattle  +.32
  • Oct Hogs    +.07
  • Dec Dlr     +.01
  • Dec S&P     -3.00
  • Oct Crude   +.39
  • Oct Gold    -20.60

 

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If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Markets Range Bound Ahead Of USDA Report

Sep 11, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 11, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are quiet in narrow trading ranges on the 12th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. The CME Group in Chicago will have moments of silence from 7:18 a.m. to 7:19 a.m. on the financial floor and 9:28 a.m. to 9:29 a.m. on the agricultural floor.

This report is coming to you from Mankato, MN. During the 7 hour trip yesterday I saw all types of maturity on corn and soybeans including one field of corn in west central WI that was starting to tassel. There were a few fields of soybeans in southern MN which were not tall enough to close the row. On the other hand, I saw some of the best looking soybeans in MN. It must be noted that an early frost would have a considerable impact on both corn and soybean yields in the Mankato area. Tomorrow I will be visiting our branch offices in Bird Island, MN and Wahpeton, ND on my way to the "Big Iron Show" in Fargo, ND. Stop by the RRFN booth on Thursday afternoon.

Traders are concerned about what the USDA might say on the September Crop Production Report. Old crop soybean stocks and new crop yields are the most anticipated numbers. Allendale does not believe the USDA will adjust acres on the September report; they will likely wait until Oct.

Corn yields are estimated by the trade at 153.9, down from the 154.4 USDA projected in August.

Basis levels for corn continue to slide as more processors reduce bids by 35 to 50 cents. The premiums have given producers an incentive to harvest corn with high moisture levels. However farmer selling has come to a halt with basis deteriorating. Producers harvesting early planted corn are reporting yields of well over 200 bushels per acre.

Argentina is ready to raise their export limits by another 3 million tonnes. China is expected to reap a record corn crop this year.

The US Grain Council says Taiwan has signed an agreement to buy 5 million tonnes of corn and 500,000 tonnes of distiller grains in 2014 and 2015.

Lean Hog futures are higher as pork product strength provides support. Pork cutout values were up .85 on good load volume. Cattle futures are waiting for something to ignite some buying interest.  Tight fed cattle supplies should be getting tighter as we move into the 4th quarter. However, we are in a seasonal period of lower beef prices. Beef cutout values were lower with choice down .60 and select down 1.12. The feeder index is 156.17.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    + 1/2
  • Nov Beans   +3
  • Sep Wheat   +2 1/4
  • Oct Cattle  +.40
  • Oct Hogs    +.32
  • Dec Dlr     -.01
  • Dec S&P     -1.50
  • Oct Crude   +.27
  • Oct Gold    +.60

 

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If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

What Are the Key Issues On Thursday’s Report?

Sep 10, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 10, 2013 at 4:45 am.  Grain futures are lower as wetter weather ahead has soybean traders taking profits. Markets are likely to remain nervous as government reports and the Syrian situation take spotlight.

USDA has to address old crop soybean stocks and new crop production. The export sales for 2012/13 soybeans have already exceeded the USDA target by about 15 million bushel with the normal annual soybean donation of 13 to 42 million bushel. Their "get out of jail free card" is some of the deficit will be made up by imports and the residual category on the balance sheet.

Soybean conditions were down 2% from last week’s 54% G/E. Producers told us what they think is an average yield for soybeans is around 39 bushel per acre. Historically, the USDA will not make that deep of a cut on the September report. Statistically it is likely they will be around 41 bushels per acre on Thursday report. However, we have been tracking 2003 which was similar. During that year, yields continued to decline into the January report. Rich Nelson presented an excellent analysis of the possibilities for the 2013 soybean crop in our Monday Afternoon broker meeting. The complete meeting is available at www.allendale-inc.com. It is an EYE OPENER!

Conditions for corn were down 2% in G/E from last week, right in line with trade expectations. Corn maturity improved 5% and many producers are starting harvest. We are getting yield report with varying results. The soil quality is having a huge impact on production this year.

Corn basis premiums are sliding quickly as central Illinois processors are 40 to 50 lower than last Friday. Blair, NE is posting a -5 to the Dec futures compared to a +1.10 last Friday.

ABARES, Australia’s government agency has reduced their wheat crop by 3% due to the dry conditions there.

The USDA report is on Thursday at 11:00 am; expect more consolidation going into the report.

Beef cutout values dip again on Monday as primal cuts lose value after Labor Day. Choice was down .90 and select was down 1.33. Fed cattle trade is expected to be steady-to-lower this week as packers seem to have a supply of contract cattle to work through.

Pork futures remain choppy as futures and index narrow the gap. Packer’s margins are slipping and packers have backed off cash bids. Pork cutout was up .45.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Dec Corn    – 1/2
  • Nov Beans   -8 3/4
  • Sep Wheat   +2 1/2
  • Oct Cattle  -.15
  • Oct Hogs    +.02
  • Dec Dlr     +.12
  • Dec S&P     +7.25
  • Oct Crude   -1.07
  • Oct Gold    -14.90

 

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If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Corn Harvest Gets Underway and Affects Basis

Sep 09, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 9, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are mixed with corn lower and soybeans higher. Rains hit some areas over the weekend but not as good of coverage as forecasted. There are more spotty rains expected this week across the cornbelt. The second week of the forecast is a little drier than Fridays view. Crop stress will continue this week as temps warm up again.

Trade is looking for a 2-3% decline in US corn rating this afternoon and a 4-5% cut in the soybean rating from last weeks54% G/E.

Harvest started in the eastern cornbelt and processors dropped bids sharply on Friday. Soybean basis was mostly steady with a few plants lowering bids by 20 cents.

China imported 6.37 million tonnes of soybeans during August which is down from the 7.20 million tonnes in July.

There were 4 more corn deliveries which makes the next available date March 28, 2013.

Several buying groups out of South Korea have bought a total of 263,000 tonnes of corn; all of it was optional origin. One of the South Korean buyers is look for another 140,000 tonnes.

The weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed Managed Money increasing long positions in the entire soybean complex. They increased short positions in corn and wheat.

The September grain contracts will go off the board on Friday. The USDA Crop Production report will be released on Thursday at 11:00 AM.

Technical numbers to watch this week are the 50 Day moving average in Dec corn which crosses today at 4.84;  November soybeans are in a trading range with support at chart gap 13.31 and resistance at contract highs 14.09 ½.

Will the funds be back buying the pork complex and causing more short covering in nearby lean hog contracts? They pushed the hog futures up for six straight sessions. Pork cutout values were up .68 on Friday. Beef values remain sluggish as beef cutout values were lower. Choice beef was down .63 and select was down .72. The CME feeder index was set at 156.36 up .28.

Look for a choppy week as traders adjust for weather forecasts, USDA reports and outside economic news.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    -1 3/4
  • Nov Beans   +7 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   -3 3/4
  • Oct Cattle  Steady-Higher
  • Oct Hogs    Steady-Higher
  • Sep Dlr     -.05
  • Sep S&P     +3.25
  • Oct Crude   -.45
  • Oct Gold    -.20

 

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If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Can Sunday Night’s Trade Be Higher Again?

Sep 06, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 6, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are higher this morning in a light volume, overnight trade. Warm temps are headed back into the cornbelt with the latest models reducing rainfall until late next week. Soybean traders will be adjusting positions accordingly to the noon weather forecast as we go into the close. Could it be another wild one on Sunday night?

Through August 30, ethanol production for the year is 7.0% under last year. That beats USDA’s goal of corn for ethanol of a 7.2% decline year over year. USDA was projecting 4.650 billion bushels for old crop corn for ethanol. It appears they are right on target.

Weekly export sales data will be released at 7:30 this morning.

                           Estimates                       Estimates      
                            2012/13                         2013/14                    
Corn           (-100,000)-100,000         450,000-650,000 
Soybeans    (-100,000)-50,000          550,000-800,000
Soymeal           25,000-75,000          100,000-175,000
Soyoil                   zero-20,000                zero-5,000
Wheat                      ******                  425,000-600,000 

Statistics Canada will report this morning at 7:30 on  the canola and wheat ending stocks for the 2012/13 marketing year.  Trade estimates are for all wheat 5.13 mmt, Durum 1.11 mmt, and canola .73 mmt.

Corn basis is tumbling as elevators and processors have enough to carry them over until harvest gets into full swing. Western elevators dropped bids sharply yesterday while eastern end-users are remaining firm. The strong basis is enticing farmers to harvest early to take advantage of premiums. Example: mid-October basis is 1.00 to 1.20 lower than current prices. Bean basis has stabilized as harvest is still several weeks away.

Looking ahead into next week, traders will be monitoring weekend rainfall in the midsection of the cornbelt and preparing for the USDA Crop Production Report on Thursday at 11:00.

Lean hog futures remain firm as futures and cash index narrow the gap. Fund buying has stepped in to support October futures and push them into new contract highs. This also is causing the confident shorts to liquidate. Pork cutout values were down 1.11 on Thursday.

A few cattle traded in NE at 194 to 195 and in IA at 193 to 196 yesterday afternoon.  Today is the last day Tyson will take Zilmax fed cattle. Beef cutout values were lower with choice down .70 and select -.22. CME Feeder Index was up .08 at 156.08.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    +1 1/2
  • Nov Beans   +1 3/4
  • Sep Wheat   +3
  • Oct Cattle  -.17
  • Oct Hogs    +.00
  • Sep Dlr     -.08
  • Sep S&P     -.75
  • Oct Crude   +.22
  • Oct Gold    -3.80

 

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If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Will USDA Adjust Bean Yields To Show Real Damage?

Sep 05, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 5, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are lower on profit-taking and technical selling.

Weather is still an important factor to the soybean markets. The models have added .10 to .25 inch of rain to parts of the central cornbelt but left the high temps. It would seem that more stress for the soybean crop is likely.

More trade estimates for next week’s USDA crop production report were released yesterday and we will get a few more today. Allendale’s Yield survey put the corn yield at 153.4 and the soybean yield at 39 bushels per acre. FC Stone released their estimate yesterday afternoon putting corn at 156.4 and soybeans at 41.2 bushels per acre. Reuters surveyed 20 analysts which had an average guess of 153.9 and 41.9. The USDA will be using the 5 year average pod weight in calculating their yield estimate. Traders don’t think it will reflect the true losses in the field.

Corn harvest is moving North to central IN and IL and northeast MO. Yield reports we are getting are in the mid 200’s and have producers pleasantly surprised. They are able to take advantage of the premiums being paid for immediate delivery at the elevators and processors.

Corn and soybean basis were mostly steady however a few processors and crushers dropped basis by $.15. There are reports of some processors willing to take high moisture, new crop corn instead of requiring 15% moisture.

Weekly export sales data will be released on Friday morning due to the holiday on Monday. DDG sales in July were 912,000 tons of which China bought 51%.

Labor disputes in the Pacific Northwest are heating up as grain inspectors are being turned away from loading facilities. A spokesman says it is not affecting grain shipments so far.

Reduced hog slaughter, firm cutout values and fund buying have supported hog futures in recent sessions. The hog index and futures prices have come together. Managed Money has a record long position in Lean Hog Futures. Historical data suggests mid-September is a time where retailers have completed purchase for "Pork Month" featuring. Pork cutout values were up .38 on Wednesday.

Beef cutout values were higher, choice up .46 and select up .21. The cash trade is still at a stand-off. Trade is concerned that feedlots are offering and moving cattle ahead of Tyson’s Zilmax use deadline. The CME Feeder Index is 156.01 unchanged.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    -2 1/2
  • Nov Beans   -9
  • Sep Wheat   -2
  • Oct Cattle  -.32
  • Oct Hogs    +.77
  • Sep Dlr     +.07
  • Sep S&P     -2.00
  • Oct Crude   +.64
  • Oct Gold    +2.60

 

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If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Allendale's 2013 Nationwide Producer Yield Survey Results

Sep 04, 2013

The Allendale team would like to thank everyone that participated in our 24th annual survey. The historical accuracy of our survey is all due to your hard work and input. As we always say, "No one knows your fields better than YOU!"

The Allendale Inc. Nationwide Producer Yield Survey suggests a projected US corn crop of 13.676 billion bushels and a soybean crop of 2.980 billion bushels. This estimate was based on producer calculated yields in 34 states. It was conducted from August 19-30.

Nationwide Yield Data

  Corn Soybeans
2013 Survey Yield 153.4 39.0
2013 Survey Production 13.676 2.980

Crop Development Data

  Corn Soybeans
Estimated Frost Free Date 10/1 10/1
     
USDA August 12 Harvested Acres 89.135 76.378
USDA August 12 Yield 154.4 42.6
USDA August 12 Production 13.763 3.255

Iowa, as the #1 corn state, is always key. Where did they come in? Did the extreme heat create further problems that surveys entered in week one didn't take into account?

If you have any questions regarding this press release, give us a call at 800-262-7538. We will release our production and end stocks estimates for the September 12th USDA Supply & Demand Report later this week. If you would like to receive this press release, please fill out the form below.

 

Is 2013 Another 2003 for soybeans

Sep 04, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 4, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are lower on profit-taking led by the soy complex. Outside markets are lower on a risk-off trader attitude.

Weather models continue to conflict with the GFS adding more rain and cooler temps in the 1 to 10 day period for parts of the cornbelt. The Euro and Canadian models are dry and much warmer with a ridge moving back over the cornbelt. Traders are worried about soybean yields and how much more stress the crop can take.

The USDA reduced the G/E rating in soybeans by 4% to 54% compared to 55% for the 5 year average. They reduced the corn by 3% for the week to 56% G/E which compares to 55% for the 5 year average. IA corn and soybean crops are rated 25% and 24%, respectively, in the poor to very poor category.

The 2003 soybean yields continued to decline into harvest and at the same time South America had production problems. In 2013, South American production is expected to nearly offset the lost production in the US. More details can be found Allendale’s Weekly Strategy Session.

Allendale will be releasing the results of the 24th Nationwide Producer Yield Survey at 7:30 this morning. The survey had data from 34 states and what Rich Nelson our Chief Strategist terms as "valid" data coverage from 12 of the top corn and soybean producing states. You will be able to view a discussion of the results presented by Rich in the "Morning Coffee" YouTube video. Thanks again for all your help.

A Brazilian AG Ministry official suggests China will approve Brazilian corn imports before year end.

Egypt is tendering for milling quality wheat for late Oct delivery. Due to pricing differences between US and Black Sea, wheat traders feel it unlikely US will get any of the business.

With harvest just around the corner for early planted crops, corn basis is mostly steady but bean basis has dropped in many locations. There have been more corn yield reports out of the mid-south at 230 to 260 bushel per acre.

Congress will be back in Washington on Monday. Senator Menendez says he will have a resolution prepared by Tuesday evening. Trader’s attitudes will be impacted by the vote.

Seasonal analysis suggests pork price declined 13 out of last 15 years by an average of 9.2%. Poultry producers are gearing up for cheaper feed cost as they increase egg sets. Due to the short time it takes a chick from hatch to market it will create increased competition for beef and pork at the retail counter. Pork cutout values were up .53 on Tuesday. Beef cutout values were mixed with choice up.43 and select down .74. The CME feeder Index was .78 to 156.10.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    -5
  • Nov Beans   -20 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   -3
  • Aug Cattle  -.17
  • Aug Hogs    +.45
  • Sep Dlr     -.08
  • Sep S&P     -2.00
  • Oct Crude   -.82
  • Oct Gold    -7.20

 

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If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Crop Stress Drives Prices Overnight

Sep 03, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 3, 2013 at 4:45 am.  Grain futures are higher on lack of rain in in the forecast. Soybeans and corn are expected to drop 3 to 5% on the crop conditions report this afternoon. The President’s decision to let Congress make the decision on whether to move against Syria has given traders a reason for their risk-off attitude this morning toward other commodities and the move back to buying equities.

About 40% of the cornbelt received some rain over the weekend. Those areas not receiving moisture will have further crop stress this week. The next chance of rain is late this weekend but forecasters are not providing a lot of confidence in the coverage.

China’s PMI showed an improvement and above trade estimates. China’s Ag Minister said they will continue to increase imports of corn due to growing demand. This is on top of a bumper harvest domestically.

Egypt bought 355,000 tonnes of wheat over the weekend from the Black Sea Region.

Argentina is starting to experience dry conditions in its winter wheat region. They are a major exporter of wheat, most of which goes to its neighbor Brazil.

Brazil says they exported 3.0 mmt of corn in August compared to 733,300 tonnes in July. Soybean exports were 5.4 mmt in August compared to 5.66 mmt in July.

Technically November soybeans need a close above the 14.09 level to resume the uptrend. Dec corn trend changing point is 5.08 ½.

Cooler weather should get market hogs rate of gain back to normal after the week of extreme temps. Pork cutout values on Friday were down 2.07. Beef cutout values were slightly lower with choice down .04 and select down .54. The CME Feeder Index was up .56 to 155.32. Trade will be looking for a pickup in retail buying early this week as they restock coolers. Livestock markets should see a steady to higher opening.

Thanks to everyone who helped with the 24th Annual Allendale Yield Survey. We will be releasing the results on Wednesday morning at 7:30.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Dec Corn    +7 1/2                     
  • Nov Beans   +45 1/4
  • Dec Wheat   +3 1/2
  • Oct Cattle  Steady-Higher
  • Oct Hogs    Steady-Higher
  • Sep Dlr     +.23
  • Sep S&P     +12.75
  • Oct Crude   -.46
  • Oct Gold    -2.90

 

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If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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