Jul 24, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions Sign UpLogin


January 2014 Archive for The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Markets Deal With Impact Of Weather Forecast

Jan 31, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 31, 2014 at 4:35 am.  

Grain futures are mixed in very narrow trading ranges. The forecast for another winter storm followed by extreme cold temps for next week is providing support. This creates problems when moving agricultural commodities and filling end-users needs.

Corn basis jumps at some ethanol plants as they prepare for heavy snowfall across the central Midwest. Indianapolis is forecasting 10 to 22 inches early next week.

Weekly export sales data showed strong sales for corn, soybeans and wheat. No cancellation from China in soybeans. Brazil exporters are saying basis continues to weaken at their ports as harvest picks up. Economic and civil unrest in Ukraine has caused world buyers to come to US for purchases of corn. The Argentine inflation problem is causing strong producer holding there which is slowing exports out of those regions.

China is now on holiday until Feb 5 for their Lunar New Year Celebration.

The Farm Bill has passed the House and creators of the bill expect President Obama to sign bill as soon as it hits his desk.

Cargill said yesterday they were going to idle a soybean processing plant in Raleigh, NC this spring. They cite the reason for closing was the potential lack of demand for meal due to the large bean crop in South America.

The Energy Department is working on ways to deal with the propane shortage in areas that prices have exploded to record levels.

Cattle Inventory report out this afternoon should show us big pictures view of the cattle industry. Trade will be watching for indication of expansion of cow herd. There were a few more reports of cattle trading yesterday at 145 in the South and 146 in the North. Beef cutout values were lower on Thursday with choice down 1.08 and select down .84. The CME Feeder Index is 171.55. Futures traders are in a tug-o-war with price direction. They are dealing with the idea that dressed beef and fed cattle prices have topped. However the support comes from the big discount of futures to cash cattle values.

Hog producers are in line for another winter storm moving across the Midwest which is likely to disrupt movement of hogs to market and product to the retail counter. Pork cutout values are up 1.62 on Thursday.

Thanks to all who were online watching and listening to the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference for 2014. If you were not able to listen to all the presentations, the Wednesday and Thursday sessions were recorded and email was sent to you with a link so you can listen at your convenience. If you did not subscribe already to these presentations will be available for purchase starting Monday.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    – 3/4
  • Mar Beans   +2 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   + 1/2
  • Feb Cattle  +.20
  • Feb Hogs    +.12
  • Mar Dlr     +.04
  • Mar S&P     -9.00
  • Mar Crude   -.29
  • Feb Gold    +3.90

Chart of the Day

Beans

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Final Session Of Ag Leaders Conference

Jan 30, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 30, 2014 at 4:35 am.  

Grain futures are mixed as we see some bargain hunters in the corn and wheat while soybeans are lower on demand concerns.

Don’t hesitate to call your Allendale Broker to discuss how the strategies that were discussed yesterday can work for you. An email was sent to all Ag Leader Conference subscribers late yesterday with links to listen to the recorded session. Today the soybean and livestock outlooks will be presented along with a technical analysis and strategies.

Register now to get our full price projections and trade strategies. Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa and Steve Georgy will present outlook, technical and strategies you can use delivered right to your home or office computer!

                                                         Full Agenda | Registration       

There doesn’t seem to be one factor of issue the trade is focusing on to justify the recent market action. Items which are being thrown around are: Potential lack of China interest due to the Lunar New Year Holiday, Weaker cash soybean prices in Brazil as harvest gets into full swing and talk of more cases of bird flu in China. The dominating reason seems to be we just don’t have any positive news to feed the bulls.

Wheat closed at new lows yesterday on heavy selling. Technical selling combined with a warmer weather forecast for Midwest chased out the bottom pickers.

Corn has turned into the follower in the grain complex however it has underlining support because of strong farmer holdings. The cold weather and snow has limited grain movement and increased consumption by livestock feeders.

Ethanol production remains strong although margins are shrinking dramatically. The general talk is that ethanol producers are squeezing out as much production as possible in the face of the coming margin squeeze. Natural gas has rallied 22% since the end of December. That adds another 3 to 5 cents per gallon to the cost of production.

Rogers Fund roll starts tomorrow which runs for 3 days and they will be rolling from March to May contracts.

At yesterday’s FOMC meeting the Fed decided to reduce bond purchases by $10 billion per month to $65 billion per month.

Trade estimates for this morning’s Weekly Export Sales Data:

Wheat             300,000-500,000      
Corn                550,000-750,000       
Soybeans        750,000-1,050,000   
Soymeal           100,000-200,000    
Soyoil                         0-30,000     

Traders will be looking for any signs of switching purchases from US to South America.

Cattle futures are finding support as cash trade develops at 146 to 147. Packer’s margins are narrowing as retailers resist high beef prices. Cutout values were lower on Wednesday, with choice down 3.99 and select down 3.24. The CME Feeder Index is 171.61.

The Lean hog futures were supported by fund buying on Wednesday. Cash hogs are weak as packers feel confident they will get enough inventories as temps warm up through the balance of week. We are hearing more talk that retail counter space is going to the other white meat instead of beef because of value. The pork cutout is down .22.

Markets as of 4:35 AM

  • Mar Corn    +1 1/4
  • Mar Beans   -4 1/2
  • Mar Wheat   +3
  • Feb Cattle  -.27
  • Feb Hogs    -.07
  • Mar Dlr     +.39
  • Mar S&P     +4.75
  • Mar Crude   +.56
  • Feb Gold    -8.20

Chart of the Day

Beans

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Corn Outlook and Strategies Starts at 2:00 PM

Jan 29, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 29, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are lower on profit taking and warmer weather forecast. Markets have consolidated into much narrower trading ranges.

The extreme cold throughout the Midwest kept many farmers close to home yesterday. The first day of Allendale’s Ag Leaders 3 day event was a huge success with attendees from all the continents around the world except Antarctica. Today’s session will focus on corn during the first hour and wheat in the second hour. There is time to sign up for today’s sessions at Ag Leaders Conference.

Trader uncertainty is taking some of the excitement out of the market as the South American weather market has run its course. The extreme temperatures early this week has stifled grain movement off the farm. Firmer cash corn basis is being driven by farmer’s inability to move grain.

Register now to get our full price projections and trade strategies. Rich Nelson, Frank La Placa and Steve Georgy will present outlook, technical and strategies you can use delivered right to your home or office computer!

                                                         Full Agenda | Registration       

The 8:00 hour is when USDA usually announces new sales and/or cancellations. Traders are expecting China to begin moving purchases from US to Brazil, no confirmations yet. The Chinese Lunar New Year starts Friday and goes through Feb 5. No announcement would be expected during the holiday.

The weather markets in South America are basically over for the season. The Polar Vortex which has hit most of central and eastern US is expected to be an "on again, off again" pattern for the next few weeks. The extreme weather is affecting all of agriculture. Ethanol and processing plants are less efficient, moving grain and livestock is hazardous and moving product to the retail counter has slowed down.

The new five year Farm Bill is expected to go to the US House this week and US Senate early next week with approval anticipated by both groups.

Product movement has slowed considerably since the sharp rise is beef prices. Cash cattle traded at 146 yesterday in the south. Beef cutout values were lower on Tuesday with choice down 2.24 at 235.80 and select down 3.39 at 233.67. The CME Feeder index is 171.35.

Pork futures have consolidated as producers struggle to stay current on cash hog marketing’s again this week due to cold weather. The report of PEDv continues to grow which suggests tighter hog supplies down the road. Pork cutout values are up .32.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    -1 1/4
  • Mar Beans   -1 1/2
  • Mar Wheat   -1 3/4
  • Feb Cattle  -.80
  • Feb Hogs    +.27
  • Mar Dlr     -.01
  • Mar S&P     +.25
  • Mar Crude   -.60
  • Feb Gold    +4.00

Chart of the Day

Beans

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

The 26th Allendale Ag Leaders Conference Starts at 2:00 pm

Jan 28, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 28, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are steady to higher. Below normal temps are providing support for the wheat.

The extreme weather conditions are normal for the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference. Over the past 25 conferences, many times, attendees had to fight extreme winter weather conditions to get here. This year we are coming to your home computer, iPad or smartphone instead of you having to drive to Crystal Lake, IL. With extreme weather conditions keeping you near home today, use the opportunity to login at 2:00 pm central time and hear Drew Lerner from World weather Inc. share his forecast for the 2014 growing season. Sign-up now, there is still time to register. You will get price outlooks and trade recommendations during the Wednesday and Thursday sessions. The weather session today will not be recorded so the live session is your only chance to listen to Drew’s forecast.

Register now to get our full price projections, trade strategies, Drew Lerner’s 2014 weather outlook and more right on your home or office computer!

                                                         Full Agenda | Registration       

Congressional negotiators reached an agreement on the long awaited Farm Bill. Senator Stabenow applauds the removal of direct payment subsidies which were made regardless of need. The vote by both Senate and House could be completed by as early as next week.

Gulf basis for soybeans continues to weaken as Brazil harvest progresses and ships are being loaded. Chinese Lunar Holiday starts on Friday and runs through next week, likely keeping export announcements quiet.

The propane shortage has caused Iowa’s Governor to send a letter to President Obama asking for help to ease the shortages. Wisconsin’s Governor is committing dollars to helping relieve the shortages.

Fed Chairman Bernanke’s last meeting as chairman starts today. Traders are waiting for more news on tapering as the new chairman takes over at the Federal Reserve.

Livestock traders are wrestling with the high price of beef cutout values. How is the retailer going to deal with the sharp increases? Is this another fall of 2003 when cattle prices rallied sharply then fell back as quickly? Can pork benefit even with the continuation of record carcass weight?

Tighter pork supplies are on the horizon as we are hearing more reports of PEDv. A second case of PEDv was found on a hog farm in Ontario, Canada. Pork cutout values were up 1.66 on Monday.

Beef cutout values were higher with choice up .78 and select up .81. The CME feeder Index is 171.22.

Ag Leaders Conference

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    + 1/4
  • Mar Beans   +1 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   +3 1/4
  • Feb Cattle  +.05
  • Feb Hogs    +.10
  • Mar Dlr     +.17
  • Mar S&P     +9.00
  • Mar Crude   +.47
  • Feb Gold    -9.10

 

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Today Is The Day To Sign Up!

Jan 27, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 27, 2014 at 4:30 am.  

Grain futures are very quiet overnight as a large part of the nation deals with below normal temps. Wheat is supported by the bitter cold weather and concerns of winter kill.

Today is the day you need to sign up for the 26th Annual Allendale Ag Leaders Conference. This year it is online for your convenience. You don’t have to travel to cold and snowy Crystal Lake, IL which will save travel and hotel expenses. The Wednesday and Thursday sessions will be recorded for viewing or reviewing at your convenience. Drew Lerner from World Weather Inc. will be presenting his planting and growing season weather outlook tomorrow. This forecast could help make key management decisions this year.

Register now to get our full price projections, trade strategies, Drew Lerner’s 2014 weather outlook and more right on your home or office computer!

                                                         Full Agenda | Registration       

Corn basis was firmer as farmer selling is minimal. Soybean basis slumps as demand is expected to be moving to South America very soon. Trade will be watching for government announcements at 8:00 am concerning cancellations.

The CFTC Commitment of Traders showed managed funds quiet last week with minimal changes to their net positions.

The March corn contract remains in a trading range with 4.40 resistance and 4.20 support. March soybeans have recently tested support. Friday’s low will be critical support.

The stock indexes are higher although the rest of world is lower as they catch up with Friday’s sharp sell-off in the US.

China’s National Development and Reform Commission said yesterday that hog prices have dropped more than 15% since mid-December due to oversupply.

Severe cold has its grip on the mid-section of the US which should slow movement of hogs early this week. Pork cutout values were .50 higher to close out the week at 88.11.

The Cattle on Feed Report was considered slightly bearish as placements and on feed numbers were higher than trade estimates. Early calls would have to be .25 to .50 lower on the opening. Beef cutout values were lower on Friday. Choice was down 1.29 and select down .68. The CME Feeder Index is 170.34.

Ag Leaders Conference Info

Markets as of 4:30 AM

  • Mar Corn    – 1/2
  • Mar Beans   -0
  • Mar Wheat   +2 3/4
  • Feb Cattle  Steady-Lower
  • Feb Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Mar Dlr     -.01
  • Mar S&P     +4.25
  • Mar Crude   +.30
  • Feb Gold    +6.20

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Will We Get Confirmation Of Cancellations Today?

Jan 24, 2014

Will We Get Confirmation Of Cancellations Today?

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 24, 2014 at 4:30 am.  Grain futures are mixed in a quiet overnight session. Traders are waiting for confirmation of soybean cancellations by China on the Weekly Export Sales Report.

Allendale’s Ag Leader Conference starts Tuesday. Drew Lerner will be the first presenter and his session will be seen only LIVE at 2:00 pm. The session Wednesday and Thursday will be live and also recorded for you to view later. Sign up TODAY!

There is more talk of international grain merchants switching origin from US to Brazil for soybeans going to China. Current pricing is now as much as 1.00 per bushel advantage for South America. Harvest is progressing and yields are above average.

Traders will be closely watching this morning’s Weekly Export Sales Data at 7:30 for any cancellations or switching of origin in soybeans. Trade estimates from Reuter’s survey are:

                                   2013/14     
                          Estimates (in tonnes)   
Wheat               300,000-600,000     
Corn                  250,000-650,000     
Soybeans           300,000-625,000  
Soymeal            100,000-250,000  
Soyoil                           0-30,000

Cash corn basis has firmed up slightly as producers have not had a huge incentive to move grain in the extreme cold weather now covering the Midwest. Soybean basis is drifting lower as export and crusher demand is sluggish.

The grain exchanges in Argentina are raising their estimates of the soybean crop as producers have planted more acres of soybeans this year. The recent rains were beneficial to previous and newly plant seed.

Yesterday’s devaluation of the Argentine Peso caused a decline not seen in 12 years. This has two effects for the Argentine grain markets. It makes their exports cheaper for foreign buyers but on the other hand it causes the farmer to hold on to the grain longer as it is much better to have the hard asset than cash.

Several US grain groups are urging Syngenta to stop commercial production of the GMO corn that has not been approved by China. They’re reason is this grain may disrupt our export markets.

Cold weather over the winter wheat areas is providing support to CBOT wheat contracts.

Cattle on Feed report this afternoon will be important for livestock and grain markets. Traders are expecting 94% on feed, 98.1% placed and 102.2% marketed of a year ago. Futures are well below cash prices this week but some profit taking ahead of the report could be expected. Beef values were lower with choice down 1.50 and select was down .51. The packers margins are still in the black and may be looking for more cattle this week. The CME Feeder Index is 170.23.

The Ontario Pork Group has confirmed that the PEDv has crossed the border into Canada. Pork cutout values were up .52 on Thursday. The effects of PEDv on the hog price outlook will be discussed at the Thursday session of the Ag Leaders Conference.

Markets as of 4:30 AM

  • Mar Corn    -1 3/4
  • Mar Beans   -2 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   +1 1/4
  • Feb Cattle  +.07
  • Feb Hogs    +.50
  • Mar Dlr     +.03
  • Mar S&P     -9.25
  • Mar Crude   -.62
  • Feb Gold    -2.70

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Brazilian Soybeans Are Getting Cheaper By The Day

Jan 23, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 23, 2014 at 4:30 am.  

Grain futures are higher as bargain hunters are looking at oversold technical indicators and hope for export demand improvement.

Allendale’s Ag Leader Conference starts next Tuesday. We are trying something new by bringing our 26th Annual event to you via a webinar format. When attending the live event on you home computer you will be able to ask questions and get answers on the spot. If you don’t have time to sit and watch the full event live you will have access to the recorded version. Sign up TODAY!

Japan bought wheat overnight and Saudi Arabia is tendering for 600,000 wheat. The export sales report will be delayed until Friday due to Washington being closed early this week. The EIA report will be released this morning which will be important in calculating corn use for ethanol.

Weather in South America has rain in the forecast and if you believe in the Euro models, the drought is over. Brazil should be back in the fields harvesting their early bean crop by the weekend.

We have not seen any confirmation of cancellation from China however the trade has been expected the switching of purchases from US to Brazil. Nearby soybean values are 1.00 per bushel less in Brazil than at the US gulf. There also is talk that China may have been buying new crop US soybeans.

The lack of a resolution with China over the GMO issues is backing up DDGs in the US and pressuring processor margins. Soybean basis has weakened along with futures being under pressure.

Markets are in a trading range with spreaders creating the volume during most of the daily session.

Cattle trade is on fire as packers paid as high as 150 in Nebraska yesterday. Using current beef values they could pay as high as 155 and still make money. However, the real question is how much and how long will consumers pay up for beef with cheaper other meats in the retail case? No one knows as this is a supply driven market with box beef movement down about 30% from last year. Beef cutout values are higher with choice up .33 and select up .29. The CME Feeder Index is 170.41.

IA pork producers are at the Winter Pork Congress with the #1 concern being the PEDv. Hog weights are several pounds heavier than a year ago, compensating for some of the pig loss from the virus. Traders are expecting tighter hog supplies as we move into the summer months. Pork cutout values were down .29 on Wednesday.

Markets as of 4:30 AM

  • Mar Corn    +1 3/4
  • Mar Beans   +1 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   +4
  • Feb Cattle  +.47
  • Feb Hogs    +.02
  • Mar Dlr     -.34
  • Mar S&P     -4.75
  • Mar Crude   +.08
  • Feb Gold    +6.50

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

How Hungry Is The World For US Soybeans?

Jan 22, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 22, 2014 at 4:30 am.  

Grain futures are higher led by a rebound in soybeans. There has been some interest from buyers overnight after the recent sell-off.

Allendale’s Ag Leader Conference is less than a week away. You can stay at home and benefit from the information our presenters will share. This is the 26th Annual event and the 1st to be available in webinar format. Sign up TODAY!

There is continued talk of China beginning to shift soybean shipments from US to Brazil. Basis levels will provide an advantage to buyers going to Brazil in a few weeks.

Without heat and dryness, the forecast for South America are insignificant to CME futures traders. Crops conditions continue to be favorable, giving the Brazilian soybean crop a chance for record production.

Cash grain movement was light as producers neglect to sell after recent declines in futures prices.

The University of Illinois study of US grain and soybean forecasts suggest the USDA should develop a better survey for corn feed usage on the monthly and quarterly estimates.

Syngenta, the largest crop chemicals company, has a new product which will be available for planting in the US this year. Traders are concerned this strain of GMO corn could threaten relations with China as this product is not approved there.

Celeres, a Brazil consultant group, says farmers there have only sold 41.7% of new crop soybeans compared to 55.9% last year. Farmers are reluctant to commit to sales due to lower international prices and are still well capitalized from selling last year’s record crop at a time when low global supply boosts prices, according to the company.

Cattle futures make new highs while feedlots are setting their sites on a 150 cash price this week. The strength in product values is suggesting very profitable packer margins.

Allendale December Placements estimates are expected to be 2.1% higher than last year. Cattle feeders have been encouraged by the return to profitability in the fourth quarter driven by lower feed costs. We see extremely small cattle slaughter in February and March due to low May through September 2013 placements. Allendale anticipates Marketing’s to be 0.8% higher than December of 2012. The calendar day adjustment artificially added 4% to the actual number. Total Cattle on Feed, as of January 1, should be 5.3% smaller than last year.

Beef cutout values were higher with choice up 3.16 and select up 2.70. CME Feeder Cattle Index is 170.49.

Extreme cold weather and snow have snarled pork movement on the east coast. Pork cutout values were down .77 on Tuesday.

Markets as of 4:30 AM

  • Mar Corn    +2 3/4
  • Mar Beans   +3 3/4
  • Mar Wheat   +3 1/4
  • Feb Cattle  +.07
  • Feb Hogs    -.07
  • Mar Dlr     +.04
  • Mar S&P     -1.50
  • Mar Crude   +.57
  • Feb Gold    -2.50

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Rain In Forecast For Argentina

Jan 21, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 21, 2014 at 4:30 am.  Grain futures are mostly lower on crop improvement in South America.

We are ONE week away from the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference Series. Get price and weather outlooks to help build a plan for your 2014 marketing. Register today!

Argentina received some rain, cooling off temps with more forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. Brazil received rain and should dry out for harvest to continue by midweek. Crop conditions in SA are improving and many analysts are adjusting their production estimates for the region.

Celeres raised their estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop to 89.9 while AgRural, a consulting firm in Brazil, has lowered their estimate of the soybean crop to 88.8 mmt versus a previous estimate of 89.2. The USDA latest estimate was 89.0 mmt.

Japan bought 50,000 mt of Canadian wheat. Traders are expecting China to be back looking for wheat as prices have dropped.

(Reuters) Feed millers in Indonesia could buy up to 150,000 tonnes of corn either from India or the United States, with supplies from rival South American exporters tapering off at the end of their marketing season.

"A record volume of maize exports during December compensated significantly for lower exports of wheat and barley," SovEcon said. Russia’s 2013 maize crop rose by a third, year-over-year, and hit a record level of 10.7 million tonnes.

China says it will stop stockpiling soybeans but continue with the program for corn and wheat.

The CFTC commitment of traders report showed managed funds reducing short positions in corn and wheat by 27,520 and 16,606 contracts respectively. They increased long positions in soybeans by 18,713 contracts.

Technical traders are now looking for a retest of the 4.17 ½ area in the March corn.

Beef prices remain strong and packer’s margins are in the black even with rally in fed cattle prices last week. Beef carcass equivalent index was up 3.39 for choice and 3.95 for select on Monday. The CME Feeder Index is 173.32. Pork cutout values were up .64 on Monday. We have to call the livestock steady to better on the opening at 9:05.

Markets as of 4:30 AM

  • Mar Corn    – 1/4
  • Mar Beans   -10
  • Mar Wheat   +1
  • Feb Cattle  Steady-Higher
  • Feb Hogs    Steady-Higher
  • Mar Dlr     +.06
  • Mar S&P     +4.50
  • Feb Crude   -4.20
  • Feb Gold    +.70

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Prepare for Weather Market on Monday Night

Jan 17, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 17, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are lower as weather outlook remains positive for South American crops.

The weather pattern in Brazil should be favorable for most crops as regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue in much of the country. Harvest delays could be expected on early planted soybeans. World Weather Inc. is expecting some moisture relief for Argentina from Sunday through Jan 27. The extreme cold forecast for Russia should not affect wheat crop as most of it has snow cover. Remember we have a long weekend with markets closed on Monday. Therefore expect some fireworks based on weather forecasts when markets open at 7:00 pm Monday.

Weekly Export sales data showed higher numbers than trade was expecting in corn and soybeans. These robust sales put total sales for soybeans at 102% of USDA target and 80% of USDA target for corn. Overnight, Taiwan bought 60,000 tonnes of US origin corn.

Egypt bought 295,000 tonnes of wheat which 60,000 was from the US. More beans were sold to China and unknown buyers canceled corn purchases. Traders are still expecting cancellations of soybeans from China when soybeans become available from Brazil. Currently, mid-February prices for Brazilian soybeans are .90 cheaper than US origin.

Corn basis was 1 to 2 cents higher while soybean basis was down 3 to 6 cents at local elevators.

(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reaffirmed its intent to remain in the commodities trading business, deeming it "too important" to clients to exit, a top executive said on Thursday.

Cattle futures have settled back from highs after CNBC ran a story on the reason for sharp rally in cattle prices. Cash traded at 144 to 144.50 in NE while beef values jumped again to keep packer margins in the black. Choice beef was up 4.17 and Select was up 3.60 on Thursday. Boxed beef movement is down nearly 30% from the same period last year. Futures markets are over bought and sharp setbacks could happen at any time. The CME Feeder Index is 171.34.

Lean hog futures are getting support from cattle and we are hearing more talk that pork is getting retail attention. The pork complex is using the theory "cheap prices cure cheap prices." Backed up hog supplies should be getting cleaned up, watch for a drop in weights for the confirmation. Pork cutout values are up 1.18.

Rich Nelson will layout Allendale’s 2014 Livestock Outlooks at our Ag Leaders Conference Series. Click here for more information and registration.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    -2 1/4
  • Mar Beans   -4 1/2
  • Mar Wheat   -1 3/4
  • Feb Cattle  -.25
  • Feb Hogs    -.05
  • Mar Dlr     +.04
  • Mar S&P     +6.00
  • Feb Crude   +.48
  • Feb Gold    +.70

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Markets Waiting For Export News

Jan 16, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 16, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are mostly higher as soybean demand is driver with watchful eye on South American weather.

China Commerce ministry says they expect 4.61 mmt of soybeans to be imported in January which is larger than previously suggested.

South Korea has bought 70,000 tonnes of US corn and 65,000 tonnes of option origin feed wheat. Japan bought 55,000 tonnes of wheat from Canada.

Weekly ethanol production fell to 868,000 barrels per day in the latest week. The year to date pace remains at 10% above last year. With the USDA raising ethanol usage on Friday’s S+D they are now expecting the whole-year production (Sep – Aug) to run 7.5% over last year.

December NOPA crush came in at 165.384 million bushels, above the 163.9 average guess. This is the biggest monthly crush number of all time.

We have been asked "How cheap is US corn and soybeans compared to the world prices?" Currently corn at the US gulf is priced at about $196 per ton while Argentina is $205, Brazil is $192 and Ukraine is $169 per tonne at their respective ports.

US soybeans are above equal to Brazil beans and $25 per tonne higher than Argentina soybeans. The US does have about a $10 to $15 per tonne freight advantage over South American ports.

Weekly Export Sales estimates for week ending January 9:

Corn               300,000-550,000 mt    

Soybeans        750,000-1,050,000 mt     

Soymeal           50,000-150,000 mt

Soyoil                   zero-35,000 mt

Wheat             350,000-600,000 mt       

China has raised its grain output target for 2014 from 5.25 mmt to more than 5.5 million tonnes, according to the 2014 planting work outline released by the Ministry of Agriculture on Tuesday.

Many elevators across the Midwest lowered corn basis again as farmers selling is causing unloading delays. We are hearing about hours being reduced at elevators and a processor closing for a few days to handle incoming soybeans.

Cash cattle traded yesterday at 142 in TX. Boxed beef values have gone up quickly and sharply due to limited supplies and aggressive fill-in buying by retailers. Seasoned livestock traders are cautious about this sharp of a price rally because they have seen prices fall even quicker. On Wednesday choice beef was up 3.58 and select was up 2.56. The CME Feeder Index is 171.16.

Pork futures are going along for the ride on the coat tails of cattle. Cash markets have stabilized but product seesaws back and forth. Pork cutout values were down .94 on Wednesday. Traders are looking for cheap pork to get some attention at retail counter which should help clean up supplies.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    + 3/4
  • Mar Beans   +3 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   – 3/4
  • Feb Cattle  +.47
  • Feb Hogs    +.00
  • Mar Dlr     -.04
  • Mar S&P     -2.00
  • Feb Crude   +.36
  • Feb Gold    -1.30
 

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Soybeans Rally As January Goes Off Board

Jan 15, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 15, 2014 at 4:30 am.  

Grain futures are mixed as demand for US soybeans provides underlying support. Many traders are now looking for the March futures to reach the levels at which the January went off the board.

Allendale’s Advisory Team will help you develop a plan for marketing your operation in 2014. Register for Ag Leaders 2014 Today.

Drew Lerner from World Weather Inc. sees some rains moving into Argentina over the weekend and early next week which will cool down temps and reduce crop stress. The 6 to 10 and 11 to 15 day forecasts are projecting moisture to spread across Argentina and Brazil’s growing regions.

The Chinese demand for US soybeans has pushed sales over 100% of USDA soybean export target. Traders are waiting for some cancellations by China but it appears they are going to wait until South American harvest is in full swing and assess port delays.

There has been more talk that China cancelled another 2 cargoes of DDGs but we have no confirmation. Gulf DDG bids were steady late yesterday. Cash corn basis was a couple cents lower while soybean basis strengthened.

The National Oilseed Processors Association’s (NOPA) monthly crush report is due out today at 11:00 should show that its U.S. members crushed 163.9 million bushels of soybeans in December (a record), up 2.3 percent from November. Positive crush margins were the driver of this record processing number.

Foreign Agricultural Service of United States Department of Agriculture issued a report on Brazilian infrastructure which identified the infrastructure advances made, particularly in the ports of São Luis and Belem. Nevertheless, administrative red tape and the pace of construction persist as challenges. In the short and medium term, the team believes that the ports of the North and Northeast will continue to increase export capacity by 3-5 mmt per year. In the long term, the region is poised to radically shift the country’s current agricultural export channels and thereby significantly increase Brazil’s agricultural export competitiveness. 

The Baltic Dry Index at 1,395, which reflects the daily charter rate for vessels carrying cargoes such as iron ore, coal and grain, is now down 18% in the last 2 days alone. This is the biggest drop in 6 years and drops back to the 4-month lows.

Pork cutout was up 2.73 as futures rally on turnaround Tuesday. The February lean hog contract put in an outside day up. Another strong close today will provide hope that a near term bottom has been made.

Beef cutout values continue to scream higher as choice was up 4.10 and select was up 4.59 on Tuesday. Traders are expecting higher cash trade this week. The CME Feeder Index is 171.15.

Markets as of 4:30 AM

  • Mar Corn    -1 1/2
  • Mar Beans   +3 3/4
  • Mar Wheat   – 1/2
  • Feb Cattle  +.17
  • Feb Hogs    +.52
  • Mar Dlr     +.24
  • Mar S&P     +2.75
  • Feb Crude   +.11
  • Feb Gold    -8.20

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Focus Now Directed to South American Weather

Jan 14, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 14, 2014 at 4:30 am.  

Grain futures are mixed as soybeans lead the way higher. Technical buying and SA weather concerns provide support.

Traders and analysts have wrestled with last Friday’s numbers trying to justify the USDA’s largest feed and residual use in 6 years for corn during the 1st quarter. The bottom line is the residual part of the equation gives the USDA wiggle room for the rest of the year. Consensus is that the 2nd quarter usage will be below normal expectations as DDGs offset some of the corn demand with lower livestock numbers.

Now that we know USDA’s numbers, how will they impact 2014 grain prices? Register for the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference to find out.

Weather in South America is now the number one feature affecting the market. When forecasters take the rain out and add heat, the CBOT markets are likely to respond. This weekend’s rains will be very important as temps are projected to hit 100+ in some growing areas.

Sales of beans to unknown or to China are continuing to fuel the bulls until we see some cancellations.

Argentina said they will export 1.5 mmt of wheat but are giving the OK to move 500,000 now. This not what Brazil wanted to hear.

China bought 120,000 mt of sorghum to replace some of the corn that is being delayed because of GMO issues.

NOPA crush numbers will be released on Wednesday as trade estimates range from 160 to 166.5 million bushel.

Cash corn bids were down another 5 cents at elevators around the Midwest. Lines are reported to be long as farmers wait to dump grain. Soybean basis slipped, as well, as processors and elevators seem to be getting enough grain now that roads are clearing.

Beef cutout values continue to run as choice was up 1.96 and select was up 3.18. There was a group of cattle reported as trading at 141 which would be 1.00 higher than last week. Tight supplies of market ready cattle are driving the rally. Traders are concerned the cattle market could break as quick as it has rallied. Use risk protection during this volatile time.

Pork cutout values were down .88 on Monday. The backup of hogs due to holidays and weather are keeping pork supplies more than adequate. Carcass weights continue to run 4 to 5 pounds heavier than last year. Watch for a technical reversal to change trend.

Markets as of 4:30 AM

  • Mar Corn    -2 1/2
  • Mar Beans   +4 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   +0
  • Feb Cattle  +.05
  • Feb Hogs    +.02
  • Mar Dlr     +.05
  • Mar S&P     +1.50
  • Feb Crude   +.31
  • Feb Gold    -2.70

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Does Less Corn Mean Higher Prices?

Jan 13, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 13, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are mostly higher as traders adjust positions after surprising USDA numbers. South American weather and planting prospects for 2014 will be on trader’s minds going forward.

The Allendale Ag Leaders Conference will have marketing ideas for 2014. Sign up today!

The weekend gave analysts time to review all the numbers the USDA shared with us on Friday. The most surprising was the reduction in corn yield. However you have to wonder if the USDA made adjustments for light test weight on the later planted corn? The first quarter usage was a surprise as the livestock industry was slow to react with heavier weight cattle and hogs coming to market later in the quarter. Expansion in the cattle and hog industries has not occurred yet. Ethanol demand was greater than expected. The USDA did not change their price targets for corn and soybeans for the 2013/14 marketing year.

Cash corn movement picked up on Friday as some processors believed they bought 10 days to 2 weeks of inventory. Basis was down 7 cents on a corn futures rally while soybeans were steady.

Traders are looking at the big reversal day in corn on the daily and weekly charts. This is likely to provide some technical support as 4.40 is the next level of resistance in March corn.

March soybeans remain in a trading range between 12.65 and 12.90.

China continues to buy US soybeans but traders are waiting for cancellations when South American harvest gets in full swing.

The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed funds reducing long positions in soybean by 23,526 contracts.

Cash cattle traded this week at 139 to 140 which was 2 to 3 higher than last week and another record higher for fed cattle. Beef cutout values were higher with choice up 2.93 and select up 2.53. Retail prices continue to climb and the question is: How much will the consumer pay?

Pork cutout values were .89 lower. Futures traders are waiting for a signal that the recent back log of market ready hogs is cleaned up.

Livestock futures are called steady to lower of this morning’s opening.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    +2 1/4
  • Mar Beans   -3 1/2
  • Mar Wheat   +5
  • Feb Cattle  Steady
  • Feb Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Mar Dlr     -.05
  • Mar S&P     -5.00
  • Feb Crude   -.63
  • Feb Gold    -1.40

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Ready or Not, Reports Are Out at 11:00

Jan 10, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 10, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are mixed. Corn and wheat are lower while soybeans are higher in a light volume session ahead of today’s USDA Reports.

View USDA Results Here

All of today’s reports will tie into Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference at the end of the month. We’ll lay out the fundamental and technical picture for 2014 and help you develop a strategy for marketing your operation. Click Here for More Info

Soybeans could be impacted by several different changes in the report. A change in yield, harvested acres and the especially export estimate on the balance sheet.

Wheat supply and demand numbers are not expected to see much change however the winter wheat planted acres could provide a spark.

Deep in the quarterly stocks numbers, the USDA will give us grain on-farm and off-farm storage. Once analysts have time to look at this data, it could have a long lasting impact on how spreads and basis may play out for the rest of the marketing year.

Rich Nelson will be providing a recap of the reports on YouTube shortly after 12:00. Make sure to tune in!

Funds were net sellers of 9,000 corn contracts and 3,000 wheat contracts while buying 4,000 contracts of soybeans, yesterday.

California and Wyoming are the latest U.S. states to report confirmed cases of a deadly pig virus, bringing the number of states affected to 22, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Thursday.

Beef cutout values were higher with choice up 1.92 and select up 1.98. The CME Feeder Index is 171.30. Cash cattle are at a standstill with light packer demand. Feedlots are hoping for trade to develop at 139 to 140.

The lean hog futures traders are waiting for some confirmation that the backed up hogs are cleaned up. The product is getting support from the sharp rally in beef at the retail counter. Pork cutout values were up 1.38 on Thursday.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    -1 1/2
  • Mar Beans   +2 3/4
  • Mar Wheat   -1 3/4
  • Feb Cattle  -.02
  • Feb Hogs    +.52
  • Mar Dlr     +.03
  • Mar S&P     +5.00
  • Feb Crude   +.95
  • Feb Gold    +3.70

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Are You Ready for Friday?

Jan 09, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 9, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are mixed with soybeans leading the rally. Lack of cash grain movement and export demand provide the strength but concerns over USDA raising world supplies on tomorrow’s report limit gains.

The first thing to do today is sign up for the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference which will be brought to you online this year. Click here for details and registration form.

Traders had the rumor mill going yesterday suggesting that the fund re-balancing was not going to happen which scared the bulls and pushed corn and wheat prices to new lows. Then in the last minute of trade there was heavy volume in corn, wheat and soyoil. These are the contracts the index traders were to be adjusting positions.

Expect more adjusting on the close today but traders are likely going to be focusing on the four USDA Reports which will released on Friday.

China continues to buy US old crop soybeans per the USDA announcement at 8:00 the last two mornings. However it appears the trade doesn’t believe these beans will ever be delivered out of the US. South American soybean harvest is getting underway and if port congestion doesn’t delay shipment it is expect to see some switching or cancellations by China.

With soybean sales already above the USDA target for exports, Friday’s Supply and Demand report will be watched closely.

South American weather remains positive for the growing crop. Rain is expected for the next several days through much of Argentina and Brazil.

More talk that China is accepting DDGs and that port authorities are pressuring the inspection agency to speed up the process because of port congestion.

Weekly export sales are expected to range from 350 to 550 tmt of corn, 400 to 700 tmt of soybeans, 70 to 120 tmt of soymeal, 0 to 10 tmt of soyoil and 250 to 450 tmt of wheat.

Pork values were down 2.10 on Wednesday. It is a repeat of previous thoughts which are, heavy hogs are producing more pounds of pork. Combine that with almost three weeks of reduced slaughter due to holidays and adverse weather and it takes time to get current.

The stronger beef values are adding to reason why feedlots are asking 139 to 140. There are a few bids developing at 135 so for this week. Tight supplies of fed cattle are the driving force as we go into February. Beef cutout values were sharply higher again with choice up 2.82 and select up 3.51. The CME Feeder Index was 171.04.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    -1 3/4
  • Mar Beans   +7 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   +1 3/4
  • Feb Cattle  +.00
  • Feb Hogs    -.27
  • Mar Dlr     -.07
  • Mar S&P     +5.25
  • Feb Crude   +.38
  • Feb Gold    +.80

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Should I Sell or Should I Buy Before Reports?

Jan 08, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 8, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are mixed in a very quiet trading session. However choppy trade is expected going into fund re-balancing (starting today) and USDA reports (Friday).

There are four different reports which will be released on Friday at 11AM. They will likely have a significant impact on futures prices. We feel certain that the reports will have something for everyone to talk about. The most important report will be the Quarterly Stock Report for corn. The USDA will have a difficult time raising feed and residual usage for two important reasons. The late harvest impacted the availability early in the quarter compared to last year. Only 7% of corn was harvested by the week of September 22 compared to 39% last year at that time. Livestock feed usage is hard to determine; we had less cattle in feedlots, less poultry and less hog numbers. There is a possibility of a bearish report and if you are holding unpriced grain why would you not want some price protection during this potentially market moving report? There are many option strategies a producer could implement for minimal cost. Talk to an Allendale Representative in our home office or one of our 15 branch offices.

Argentina weather remains favorable in 80 to 85% of the major producing areas.

China and DDG inspections have been the feature of conversation as soymeal traders wait for an official announcement the MIR 162 is no longer a problem for importers. The slide in DDG values in recent weeks has come to a halt as bids were higher late yesterday.

The Polar Vortex has slowed movement of grain and created problems for barge movement on the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers. Gulf basis was firmer as USDA announced the 350,000 tonnes of soybeans to China.

Financial markets are waiting for the employment number Friday morning at 7:30.

Cattle futures are doing some back and fill action. Feedlots are expecting cash to be steady to higher this week while product is strong. Beef values were higher with choice up 1.77 and select up 2.18.

Pork traders are worried about more hogs being backed up because of holidays and cold weather. Pork cutout values were sharply higher on Tuesday, posting a 2.48 gain.

Mark your calendar and sign up for the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on January 28, 29 and 30. We will deliver it directly to your home.

See you in DeKalb IL this morning at 9:00 am.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    +1
  • Jan Beans   -3 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   +3 1/4
  • Feb Cattle  +.05
  • Feb Hogs    -.27
  • Mar Dlr     +.18
  • Mar S&P     -2.25
  • Feb Crude   +.06
  • Feb Gold    -3.60

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Traders Cautious Going Into Report Day

Jan 07, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 7, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are lower. Trading volume remains light as traders appear to be cautious going into the USDA reports on Friday. The USDA will be releasing the Quarterly Stocks, Crop Production, Supply and Demand and the Winter Wheat Seeding Reports. It is likely the Quarterly Stocks could have the most impact.

Stay warm and join me at the Northern Illinois Farm Show in DeKalb. The presentation starts at 9:00 am tomorrow. We will take a look at the world production prospects as well as a 2014 US Outlook. You also will take home some strategies going into Friday’s Reports.

The majority of Argentina’s crop producing area is fine however there are a few dry areas in the North and South. The dry areas may be limited to 20% or less.

DDG values appear to have found a price from which they can bounce after the $90 per tonne break since Christmas.

The CFTC Commitment of Traders Report showed Managed Funds increasing short positions in corn by 7,018 contracts and in wheat by 1,636 contracts. They reduced long positions in soybeans by 17% or 29,040 contracts.

Fund rebalancing is due to start tomorrow. Traders are estimating the index funds will be covering approximately 90,000 corn contracts and nearly 20,000 bean contracts before they are done. Many think their buying may take place on the close each day until they complete the task.

Cash basis was steady as cold and snow limited movement of grain.

Feeder cattle futures post new contract highs as firmer beef prices support live cattle futures. Beef cutout values were higher with choice up 1.21 and select up 2.28. The CME Feeder Index is 170.54.

Live hog weights continue to climb as the past 2 holiday shortened work weeks have backed up some numbers. Starting this week, the extreme cold is stalling movement of hogs as producers are keeping their facilities buttoned up. Pork cutout values were up .09.

Mark your calendar and sign up for the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference on January 28, 29 and 30. We will deliver it directly to your home.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    -1
  • Jan Beans   -8
  • Mar Wheat   -2 3/4
  • Feb Cattle  +.37
  • Feb Hogs    -.45
  • Mar Dlr     +.01
  • Mar S&P     +6.50
  • Feb Crude   +.36
  • Feb Gold    -.80

 

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Allendale Sees Corn Production Rise

Jan 06, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 6, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are higher on short covering and anticipation of fund rebalancing.

Artic weather and possible winter kill for wheat is also providing support to grain futures overnight although snow cover should provide protection for winter wheat.

Get Drew Lerner’s Complete 2014 Weather Outlook. Click Here for Details.

Cash grain movement will be limited early this week as producers dig out from under snow fall and deal will extreme cold throughout the Midwest.

Basis levels have seen a slight improvement as some end-users need inventory. Barge movement on the Illinois River and upper Mississippi will be at a standstill due to ice.

DDG values have dropped to levels that are causing competition for soymeal. The cancellation of DDGs by China has pressure on prices in the US.

Allendale releases their estimates for Friday’s USDA Reports. Rich Nelson is increasing corn production by 94 million bushel to 14.083 billion bushel another new record. He sees soybean production dropping slightly to 3.251 billion bushel.

South American weather remains a negative to the market as hot temps move in and out as it would during a normal summer.

Brazil’s new crop harvest has begun and the premium of Jan over March futures should entice immediate movement.

The CFTC Commitment of Traders will be released this afternoon. Traders are waiting for the Index Funds to balance positions in early January. This report could give an indication whether or not they have started adjusting positions.

Livestock are being stressed due to extreme cold conditions throughout central US. Movement of product will be disrupted for a few days. Cash cattle are expected to trade steady to higher this week. Beef cutout values are higher with choice up 1.86 and select up 1.33. The CME Feeder Index is 169.47.

Pork product continues to struggle as chicken is creating competition at the retail counter. Cash hogs should be higher early this week but producers will struggle to move them. Pork cutout values down 1.21. Calls would have to be steady to higher on the open.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    +1 3/4
  • Jan Beans   +1
  • Mar Wheat   +2
  • Feb Cattle  Steady-Higher
  • Feb Hogs    Steady-Higher
  • Mar Dlr     -.06
  • Mar S&P     +1.50
  • Feb Crude   +.50
  • Feb Gold    -1.10

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Technical Damage To Soybean Chart

Jan 03, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 3, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are slightly higher on bargain hunting but overall issues still remain. The weather in South America is good for crop growth while supplies at home are large.

We’ll release our full 2014 price outlooks at our conference webinar series. Get full details on the conference here.

Driving home last night from a funeral in Southern IL I noticed a major grain elevator in central IL moving corn from the bin to outside storage. It looked as if they wanted to get the pile of corn moved and covered before the next snowfall. Temperature was about 5 above at the time. Does this mean that the elevator is making room for more corn coming in over the next few weeks?

Traders are looking ahead to next week’s USDA reports. If you are in the DeKalb area next Wednesday I will be discussing the report possibilities at the Northern Illinois Farm Show at 9:00 am.

Weekly export sales report out this morning at 7:30.

                        Estimate in tonnes
Corn             650,000-850,000             
Soybeans     500,000-800,000
Soymeal         50,000-100,000
Soyoil              10,000-40,000
Wheat            350,000-550,000   

Later this morning we will get the ethanol production data that was delayed due to the holiday.

Reports are that the US Grain Council is not expecting a quick solution to the Chinese GMO corn import issue.

Northern regions of Brazil are reporting soybean harvest is underway on early planted crop.

Technical damage to the soybean and wheat charts yesterday may have a longer lasting effect unless we can quickly stop the freefall. March soybean contract closed below the key 100 and 200 day moving averages. March wheat closed below the psychological 6.00 level on Thursday.

Cash cattle traded higher than last week at 135 to 137. Our Rich Nelson is looking for cattle prices to trend higher into February as fed cattle supplies continue to tighten. The chart picture looks positive, closing at new highs. Beef cutout values werelower on Thursday with choice down .10 and select down .36. The CME Feeder Index is 167.48.

Firmer beef prices and extreme cold weather are supporting hog futures. Pork cutout values were down .37. Packers will have a full work week next week and are looking for enough inventories.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    +2
  • Jan Beans   +4 3/4
  • Mar Wheat   +1 1/4
  • Feb Cattle  +.12
  • Feb Hogs    -.17
  • Mar Dlr     -.06
  • Mar S&P     +1.25
  • Feb Crude   -.03
  • Feb Gold    +7.20

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions