Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for February 27, 2014 at 4:45 am.
Grain futures are mixed with old crop soybeans near 14.00. Corn and wheat lower on profit taking and spreading.
All eyes are on the weekly export sales report at 7:30 and the daily USDA export data at 8:00 am. Has there been any cancellation in soybeans? Traders believe it is not a question of if, it is a matter of when and how much. The trade estimate for weekly export sales is very aggressive for soybeans at 400,000 to 800,000 tonnes. The corn sales estimate is 475,000 to 775,000 tonnes and wheat is 300,000 to 500,000 tonnes.
Argentina approves the additional export of 500,000 tonnes of wheat for the 2013/14 crop year.
Egypt’s GASC is seeking a couple of cargoes of wheat however it is likely none of it will be from US.
Corn and soybean basis has held steady with early week values as farmer selling has slowed.
A Reuter’s article suggests investors are wary of commodity gains despite new money. 2013 was a hellish year for commodity investments. http://reut.rs/1hgkDku
Funds sold a net 6,000 wheat contracts, bought 8,000 contracts in soybeans and were even in corn.
First notice day for March contracts is Friday. The sharp rally in soybeans has created end of month margin clerk pressure at FCMs for retail traders to exit positions or get money in now. This situation should be relieved by the weekend.
Allendale’s Monthly Webinar is this evening at 7:00 pm. We will be covering Planting Weather, Acreage and a Technical Update. Sign up today, it is free! Click here for details. This will be your first chance to meet Ryan Martin, a meteorologist and a new addition to the Allendale Team. You will have access to his daily US and International weather outlooks next week.
The cattle market is on fire! Cash traded at 152 in NE yesterday which is up 7.00 from last week. February Live Cattle contract goes off the board on Friday at noon. We are in the period where supplies were expected to be tight based on last fall’s placements. Supplies are expected to increase going into summer months. Cutout values were higher with choice up 2.45 and select up 2.69. The CME feeder Index is 170.27.
Lean Hog futures continue to set new contract highs as fund buying and concern over supply of market ready hogs due to PEDv as early as April are the catalysts. The technical picture is suggesting an overbought condition. Watch for quick, sharp correction in futures. The cash market is strong and the pork cutout value is down .01.
Allendale Annual Planted Acreage Survey is going right now. Please call us or go to www.allendale-inc.com and fill out the survey.
Markets as of 4:45 AM
- May Corn -2
- May Beans +1 1/4
- May Wheat -2
- Apr Cattle +.60
- Apr Hogs +.57
- Mar Dlr +.08
- Mar S&P -8.25
- Apr Crude -.08
- Apr Gold +4.20
Chart of the Day
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