Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 13, 2014 at 4:30 am.
Grain futures are mostly higher on short covering and bargain hunting.
Corn planting progress increased last week at a record pace of 30% to put total corn planted at 59%. This number exceeded the trade average guess of 56% complete.
Soybean progress jumped to 20% which is now above the 5 year average pace of 18%. Rain throughout the Midwest this week could slow planting pace but the "hit and miss" shower patterns will allow for some progress.
The trade had the weekend to analyze the USDA’s report last Friday. The aggressive corn export projection of 1.9 billion bushels, an increase of 150 million bushels, seems unlikely. Allendale is going to keep our forecast for exports at 1.85 billion bushel.
A study done by Allendale’s research department took a look at years with planting delays and what happens to price when 50% of corn planting is complete. After the top is in, the average selloff is 24% from the high. Call your Allendale broker for more details.
Adjustments in the soybean exports are in agreement with our research. They raised total soybean exports to 1.6 billion bushels. Currently we have 1.64 billion bushels sold and normal switching from old to new crop beans is about 45 million bushel.
The NOPA crush data will be important as domestic demand for meal has been very strong. This data will be released on Thursday at 11:00 am.
Last trading day for the May contracts at the CBOT is tomorrow May 14th.
Ryan Martin’s weather forecast has been updated already, click here to read.
Winter wheat conditions dropped 1% to 30% good to excellent vs. 32% last year while poor to very poor climbs 4% to 42% vs. 39% last year.
Russia, unsurprisingly, supported the referendum outcome in Ukraine, but did not make any bold moves. The Kremlin released a brief statement saying that it hopes the desires of the voters in the Donetsk and Luhansk region will be carried out in a "civilized way."
This week’s feedlot showlist estimate shows a 14,000 head increase. More numbers were found in Nebraska, Texas, and Colorado while fewer were offered in Kansas. Trend should continue to show increases as we work our way into June. Beef cutout values were higher on Monday with choice up .56 and select up .43. The CME Feeder Index is 183.78.
Currently, pork production is 1% below a year ago at this time. The USDA is estimating a 1.8% decline for the year. Hog slaughter numbers are down over 4% for the year but heavier weights are making up for smaller numbers. Private analysts are still expecting a decline of 10% or greater during June, July and August. Pork cutout values are up 2.09.
Markets as of 4:30 AM
- Jul Corn +2 1/2
- Jul Beans +10
- Jul Wheat -1
- Jun Cattle -.02
- Jun Hogs -.15
- Jun Dlr +.02
- Jun S&P +2.00
- Jun Crude +.14
- Jun Gold -2.80
Chart of the Day
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