Sep 18, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Another Great Weekend For Planting Progress

May 27, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 27, 2014 at 4:30 am CDT.  

Grain futures are lower across the board. Easing tension in Ukraine and good planting weather over the weekend is weighing on prices.

Trade is looking for corn planting to be in the 84-87% area; the 5 year average is 88%. Soybeans are expected to be 55-57% while the average is 52%. North Dakota planting got rained out on Saturday but most of Minnesota has been open through the weekend allowing for corn planting.

Join us for our Ag Leaders Webinar tonight at 8PM Central Time. This month, we welcome biofuel analyst, Craig Iriwn to share his expertise on changes in the biofuels industry and how they could impact U.S. grains. Register here

The old crop soybean bulls are continuing to tout the price is not high enough to ration domestic and export demand. However the bears are suggesting the weaker meal basis as a sign of a top.

The July/November soybean futures spread is being watched closely as funds begin their roll out of the July over next few weeks.

The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money reduced net long positions by 47,472 contracts. They also reduced net long wheat by 20,871 contracts and soybeans by 10,844 contracts.

Ukraine elects a new president, Petro Poroshenko. His election gives Europe and the US hope for political stability in the region. There will be some tough economic restructuring to meet the voters mandate.

Beef values closed out the week mixed with choice up .19 and select down .26. Traders will be looking for early week demand as retailers restock shelves after the holiday. The short work week and packers chain slowdown will be chatter for lower cash prices. The other side of the argument is packer margins are in the black and fed supplies are tight. The CME Feeder Index is 189.35.

This year’s average market hog is now producing an extra 14 lbs. more meat than last year. That is carcass weight! Last week carcass weight contributed additional 4.9% more pork ex: slaughter was down 3.1% yet pork production was up 1.7%. Pork cutout values were up 1.28 on Friday.

Livestock futures are expected to start the week steady-lower.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT          

  • Jul Corn    -6 1/4
  • Jul Beans   -15 1/2
  • Jul Wheat   -9 3/4
  • Jun Cattle  Steady-Lower
  • Jun Hogs    Steady-Lower
  • Jun Dlr     -.11
  • Jun S&P     +8.00
  • Jul Crude   -.38
  • Jun Gold    -8.40

 Chart of the Day

daily chart

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