Oct 2, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Are Crop Conditions As Good As 2007?

Jun 02, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 2, 2014 at 4:30 am CDT.  

Grain futures are lower as long liquidation, good weather for growing crops and export competition weigh on prices.

Corn planting progress this afternoon should be about 95%, which from the traders perspective will be considered done. Soybean planting should be in the 75% area. North Dakota planting progress will be watched closely.

The 1st national corn rating of the year may not reach the 2007 record of 78% G/E. Trade estimates are 72 to 75% G/E.

CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money reduced net long positions by 29,253 contracts last week. They increased long positions by 6,118 contracts in soybeans and reduced long positions in wheat by 4,721 contracts.

The well-publicized Goldman roll will begin on Friday.

Crop conditions are improving in Ukraine and Russia which has Black Sea exporters offering new crop wheat at prices more competitive than US.

Corn and soybean basis have improved after weakness in futures on Friday.

China and Europe are on holiday today which could be a cause for light volume in grains.

Economic reports this week could create some volatility as trade will be positioning ahead of the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday and the US May unemployment numbers on Friday.

Beef cutout values were lower on Friday with choice down .99 and select down 1.87.

Pork cutout values were up 2.26. Traders are waiting for any indication that hog supplies are tightening. Hog weights have been able to offset slaughter numbers in recent weeks.

We are calling hogs and cattle steady to higher this morning.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT          

  • Jul Corn    -3 3/4
  • Jul Beans   -6 3/4
  • Jul Wheat   -8
  • Jun Cattle  Steady
  • Jun Hogs    Steady-Higher
  • Jun Dlr     +.18
  • Jun S&P     +1.25
  • Jul Crude   +.42
  • Jun Gold    -1.10

 Chart of the Day

daily chart

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