Sep 22, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Are You Ready for Friday?

Jan 09, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for January 9, 2014 at 4:45 am.  

Grain futures are mixed with soybeans leading the rally. Lack of cash grain movement and export demand provide the strength but concerns over USDA raising world supplies on tomorrow’s report limit gains.

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Traders had the rumor mill going yesterday suggesting that the fund re-balancing was not going to happen which scared the bulls and pushed corn and wheat prices to new lows. Then in the last minute of trade there was heavy volume in corn, wheat and soyoil. These are the contracts the index traders were to be adjusting positions.

Expect more adjusting on the close today but traders are likely going to be focusing on the four USDA Reports which will released on Friday.

China continues to buy US old crop soybeans per the USDA announcement at 8:00 the last two mornings. However it appears the trade doesn’t believe these beans will ever be delivered out of the US. South American soybean harvest is getting underway and if port congestion doesn’t delay shipment it is expect to see some switching or cancellations by China.

With soybean sales already above the USDA target for exports, Friday’s Supply and Demand report will be watched closely.

South American weather remains positive for the growing crop. Rain is expected for the next several days through much of Argentina and Brazil.

More talk that China is accepting DDGs and that port authorities are pressuring the inspection agency to speed up the process because of port congestion.

Weekly export sales are expected to range from 350 to 550 tmt of corn, 400 to 700 tmt of soybeans, 70 to 120 tmt of soymeal, 0 to 10 tmt of soyoil and 250 to 450 tmt of wheat.

Pork values were down 2.10 on Wednesday. It is a repeat of previous thoughts which are, heavy hogs are producing more pounds of pork. Combine that with almost three weeks of reduced slaughter due to holidays and adverse weather and it takes time to get current.

The stronger beef values are adding to reason why feedlots are asking 139 to 140. There are a few bids developing at 135 so for this week. Tight supplies of fed cattle are the driving force as we go into February. Beef cutout values were sharply higher again with choice up 2.82 and select up 3.51. The CME Feeder Index was 171.04.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Mar Corn    -1 3/4
  • Mar Beans   +7 1/4
  • Mar Wheat   +1 3/4
  • Feb Cattle  +.00
  • Feb Hogs    -.27
  • Mar Dlr     -.07
  • Mar S&P     +5.25
  • Feb Crude   +.38
  • Feb Gold    +.80

Chart of the Day


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