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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Bargain Hunters Respond After Sell-Off

Dec 27, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for December 27, 2013 at 5:00 am.  

Grain futures are higher although wheat is set to post its 4th straight weekly loss.

The confirmation of China rejecting 2,000 tonnes of DDGs is weighing on the corn market. Many traders believe there are more cancellations to come. This could mean backing up of DDGs and less meal usage here at home.

Crush margins are still positive around the world which is keeping support under the January contract. First notice day for the January contract is December 31st.

January option expiration is today at the CBOT.

USDA Weekly Export Sales will be released at 7:30. Trade estimates are: Corn 550 to 750 tmt, soybeans 500 to 750 tmt, Soymeal 50 to 150 tmt, soyoil 0 to 15 tmt and wheat 350 to 550 tmt.

The EIA will be giving us energy stocks at 10:00 and gas storage numbers at 9:30 which have been delayed because of the holiday.

Basis levels at country elevators are steady with a slight pickup in year end farmer movement.

Funds sold an estimated net 6,000 corn contracts, were even in wheat, and sold 4,000 soybean contracts. Index funds are expected to be re-balancing sometime after the first of the year.

Livestock traders are waiting for the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report this afternoon at 2:00 pm.

                                      Ranges       Average       Mln head
All hogs Dec 1            98.6-101.0       99.9           66.307
Kept for breeding    100.2-101.9     101.0             5.875
Kept for market         98.4-101.1       99.8           60.435

The full breakdown of estimates can be found on the Allendale Advisory Report at www.allendale-inc.com.

Traders are hoping for answers to the impact of PEDv on the pig crop and how producers are responding to herd expansion due to the disease.

Live hog weights are well above average which is compounding the problem of a couple short work weeks and cleaning up product. Pork cutout values were up .44.

Cash cattle are expected to trade steady to higher this week. Packers are bidding 129, offers 133 to 134. Beef values were mixed with choice up .07 and select down 1.52. CME Feeder Index is 165.26.

STAY at HOME for the Allendale Ag Leaders Conference this year because you can get it live on your home/office computer. Sign up today and get the tax benefits.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

Mar Corn    +1
Jan Beans   +3 1/2
Mar Wheat   -1 1/2
Feb Cattle  +.25
Feb Hogs    +.45
Mar Dlr     -.48
Mar S&P     -2.25
Feb Crude   +.03
Feb Gold    -2.20

Chart of the Day

COT-Wheat

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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