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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Bargain Hunting On Technical Support

Jun 18, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 18, 2014at 4:30 am CDT.

Grain futures are higher on bargain hunting. July soybeans are finding support this morning as traders are concerned about the export sales report tomorrow morning.

Unwinding of the July/November soybean spread is playing a big role in the weakness of the July contract and the strength in the November in recent sessions. Tuesday posted its lowest close since late Feb in the old crop/new crop spread.

The corn and soybean closing at new lows on Tuesday is not a bullish signal. The remaining bulls will be waiting for the NOAA’s long-term weather forecast on Thursday. In recent years this forecast triggered a change in market attitude. Stay tuned to Ryan Martin’s weather blog for an update and details of this forecast.

Funds were net seller 6,000 corn, 11,000 soybeans, 4,000 soymeal contracts and even in wheat on Tuesday.

The price decline in July wheat below the $6.00 area has provided some interest in export business to Tunisia, the Philippines and Algeria.

On the economic calendar today the FOMC is expected to taper QE3 another notch but maintain dovish interest rate guidance. The U.S. current account deficit is expected to widen from Q4’s narrowest level in 14-1/3 years and the EIA reportis expected to show a decline in crude oil inventories

The showlist for market ready cattle this week is the largest we have seen in a while. Retail demand for beef has been aggressive this week as they restock shelves and prepare for July 4th weekend. Cattle-on-Feed report is Friday at 2:00 pm. Beef values are higher with choice up 2.56 and select up 3.16. The CME Feeder Index is 203.44.

The far deferred hog futures have been under pressure due technical selling and the news that USDA cleared the first PED vaccine. Total pork production is running at near year ago levels due to increase carcass weights. Pork cutout value is up .62.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT          

  • Jul Corn   +1 3/4   
  • Jul Beans   +9 3/4
  • Jul Wheat   +4 1/4
  • Aug Cattle  +.17
  • Jul Hogs    -.07
  • Sep Dlr     -.06
  • Sep S&P     +.25
  • Jul Crude   +.35
  • Aug Gold   -3.10

Chart of the Day

daily chart

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