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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Bull Spreads Attract Traders

Nov 14, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 14, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grains are higher on follow-through buying. Bull spreading has been the feature as cash markets provide underlining support to futures. Lack of farmer movement of grain and the USDA announcement of a corn sale to unknown buyers yesterday has traders covering shorts after the recent sell-off. Weather forecasters are adding a little more moisture for Argentina next week. Brazil should be getting periodic systems moving across the soybean growing region. USDA weekly crop conditions for wheat showed a 3% decline to 36% for G/E which was 7% below the lowest G/E made in 1991. Soybean harvest is 96% complete compared to 95% last week. NOPA crush is due out this morning, and analysts are looking for Oct crush of 146.2 million bushels, and oil stocks are estimated at 2.10 billion pounds. Euro finance ministers agreed to extend the Greece budget deficit target by 2 years and are promising funding but have not identified a source for the shortfall. You may remember back in August a few states asked the EPA for waivers on ethanol blending requirements. The EPA said a decision would come by the end of the month. Ukraine Prime Minister said that they will not suspend or limit wheat exports this year. Average estimates for Friday’s Cattle-On-Feed Report are: On feed 94.6%, Placed in October 87.3%, Marketed in October was 102.6%. Live cattle futures put in a positive performance on Tuesday. Resistance crosses in Dec cattle at 126.12 and then 126.90, the 50 day average. Tuesday’s low should be initial support. Nearby hog futures are rallying on the idea lower corn prices will keep cash hog supplies tighter than expected. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up .08 and select up .88. Pork cutout values were down 1.61.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +3 1/2
Jan Beans   +12 1/2
Dec Wheat   +4 1/4
Dec Cattle -.45
Dec Hogs    -.12
Dec Dlr     -.04
Dec S+P     +6.00
Dec Crude   +.22
Dec Gold    -2.50
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday Dec Wheat continued its sideways trade. Until some sort of confirmation to the downside is seen we would be very cautious in assuming that we are seeing any sort of breakout. This market has provided a number of false breakouts over the last four months…Frank La Placa 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
The Chinese government has indicated it will buy corn and soybean from producers at prices higher than last year’s normal fall procurement. They will offer to buy corn from 2,100 to 2,140 yuan per tonne which is up 7%. Their soybean offered price will be 4,600. That would be up 15% from last year.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Allendale Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Allendale Inc.’s Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Allendale Inc. believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

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