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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Buyers Back In Grain Futures

Jul 09, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 9, 2013 at 4:45 am.  Grain futures are higher on follow-through buying, positive fundamental news and an improved chart picture.  Cash markets are considerably higher than the July futures with only 3 full sessions left to trade. This is likely to create some excitement in the July contract going into expiration on Friday at Noon. Traders coming back from a holiday week were surprised by the announcement of active grain and soybean sales. The long-term weather forecast has added more heat and less rain to the cornbelt at an important time of the production cycle. Traders are also faced with an oversold technical picture and a USDA Report on Thursday morning at 11AM. The 2013/14 USDA balance sheet should show a large ending stock for corn and soybeans. History tells us the USDA will be using the acreage numbers released on June 28 as reported. They could change the yield but when they change yield in June it is unlikely to see another change in July during late planting years. Old crop ending stocks numbers are likely to see slight adjustments in corn and soybeans. Trade average estimate for wheat is projecting a decline of approximately 30 million bushels in ending stocks.  Wheat harvest is behind normal due to rains across the Ohio River Valley. Harvest delays are also creating concerns about the planting of double crop soybeans. The November soybean futures had an outside day reversal on the charts Monday, watch for continued strength. Livestock traders are disappointed by holiday week meat movement. Retailers are securing product now for the end of July into early August which is generally a lower demand period than early summer. Export sales for pork during May were down 4% from previous year. Pork cutout values on Monday were up .36. Boxed beef came under pressure on Monday with choice down 1.49 and select down 2.60.

Yesterday’s poll question was: What will USDA project for corn yield on Thursday’s report?

Below 145–0.66%
Above 160–13.16%


Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Dec Corn    +7 1/4
  • Nov Beans   +15 3/4
  • Sep Wheat   +6 3/4
  • Aug Cattle  +.07
  • Aug Hogs    6 3/4
  • Sep Dlr     +.07
  • Sep S&P     +7.25
  • Aug Crude   -.15
  • Aug Gold    +16.00


View Today’s Chart of the Day

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