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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Buying Continues in Corn and Oilseeds

May 31, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 31, 2013 at 5:15 am.  Corn and soybeans are higher as buying continues on the last day of the month.  The weather forecast is a bit drier for the 6 to 10 day timeframe however we have reached the insurance date which allows producers to take the Prevent Planting Option. After talking to more producers about the possibility of taking Prevent Plant, they said they would rather switch to a shorter season corn. They cite that PP will not cover the cost of rent, fertilizer and equipment. Many producers in MN say they have the option to harvest as silage if it does not mature to harvest as corn. Traders are quickly becoming convinced that the bull market in old crop grains is over. They use the old crop/new crop spread to justify their reasoning. July corn/Dec corn spread has narrowed 44 cents in 8 sessions. The July soybean/Nov soybean spread has narrowed 88 cents in 5 sessions. Some of this narrowing could be front running ahead of 3 major funds moving out of the July to a deferred contract which started yesterday. Rogers Fund, Deutcshe and Goldman funds are unofficially expected to roll positions in the next 5 to 8 trading sessions. There is more talk that China has canceled soybeans out of South America as crush margins turn negative in China. The Mississippi River is being forced to close due to high water. The weekly export sales numbers will be released later this morning.

Trade estimates for USDA weekly grain/soy export sales – RTRS

  2012/13 2013/14
Wheat 0-200,000 250,000-450,000
Corn 0-200,000 600,000-800,000
Soybeans 0-200,000 400,000-600,000
Soymeal 75,000-150,000 75,000-150,000
Soyoil 5,000-10,000 0

Hog futures find support off the new that the Chinese firm Shuanghui has purchased Smithfield. Cattle futures ran into fund selling yesterday when moving average support was broken. Boxed beef was lower on Thursday with choice down .98 and select down 1.24. Feeder index was down .36 to 131.88. Pork cutout values were down .05. Call you Allendale Rep to discuss the new "Call to Action" just released. 

Markets as of 5:15 AM

  • Jul #Corn    +3 1/2
  • Jul #Beans   +12 1/4
  • Jul #Wheat   -4 1/2
  • Jun #Cattle  +.25
  • Jun #Hogs    +.27
  • Jun Dlr     +.33
  • Jun S&P     -11.00
  • Jul Crude   -.78
  • Jun Gold    -1.30


View Today’s Chart of the Day

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