The Allendale Wake-Up Call
Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
Can Corn Closeout Week With Largest Gain In 4 Weeks?
Aug 15, 2014
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for August 15, 2014 at 5:30 am.
Grain futures are mixed with corn and wheat higher soybeans lower. A strong close today in Dec corn could be the best weekly performance in a month.
Traders Focus Today: NOPA crush, Russian actions on Ukraine border and weather forecasts.
Stay updated on weather by reading or listening to Allendale’s Meteorologist Ryan Martin.
NOPA crush for July will be released today at 11:00 am. Trade estimate is 115.82 million bushels of soybeans used for domestic crush during July 2014 and oil stocks at 1.628.
Old crop soybean supplies are very tight and processors are scrambling to get enough inventories until new crop beans can be harvested. This is providing support to the entire complex. However, when harvest begins it will be a completely different story. The last time we had ending stock at 430 in soybeans was 2004/05 and November soybeans had a low with an 8 in front of it.
Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:
(AP) – In a diplomatic game of chicken, a large Russian aid convoy rolled toward the Ukrainian border on Thursday – but it was heading toward a crossing controlled by pro-Russian rebels instead of a government post as Ukraine had demanded.
Next week the ProFarmer crop tour begins and will create volatility in the futures market as reporters on the tour use social media to release field data.
Allendale’s 25th Annual Yield Survey starts on Monday call us or go to our website and fill out the survey on line. You know your fields better than anyone. Thanks for your input in advance.
December corn has major technical resistance at the chart gap starting at 3.77 ½. A close above this level could trigger some short covering and could push prices to next resistance near 3.90.
November soybean futures remain in a down trending channel trading range with support at 1040 and resistance at 1090.
December wheat has support at 5.42 with a close below that level pointing to a downside target of 5.00.
The Eco calendar has Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization out later this morning.
Can lean hogs hold overnight strength? Lean hog futures are struggling with weak fundamental news such as: increasing weights, possible vaccine for PEDv and Russian ban of poultry which increases competition at the retail counter. Lean hog futures have been under heavy liquidation pressure in recent sessions. The large historical discount of Oct futures to cash is not enough to provide support. Pork cutout values have finally traded higher as cutout values are up 1.71.
Cattle futures would like to rally but weak pork futures and lower cash prices this week has weighed on futures. Cash cattle have traded at 155 which is $5.00 lower than last week. Cattle supply fundamentals are still very positive but the beef consumers are shell shocked by beef prices as the last big cookout weekend approaches. Beef values are weaker with choice down .14 and select down .98. The CME Feeder price is 222.78.
Markets as of 5:30 AM CDT
Dec Corn – 1/4
Nov Beans -5
Sep Wheat +1 3/4
Sep Dlr -.04
Sep S&P +4.50
Sep Crude +.01
Oct Gold +2.10
Chart of the Day
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