Can Exports Add Life To Grain Markets?
Nov 15, 2013
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 15, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are mixed as corn and wheat bounce, while soybeans are slightly lower.
Later this morning traders will get the USDA Weekly Export data. Estimates are: corn 800 tmt to 1.0 mmt, soybeans 900 tmt to 1.2 mmt, soymeal 200 to 350 tmt, soyoil 25 to 50 tmt and wheat 350 to 550 tmt.
On the ethanol report this week production was raised by 25 bbd to 927. This is 13% greater than last year. No word yet from EPA on their mandate decision. Industry officials say it may not have an impact anyway because lower corn prices are providing an excellent reason to crush for ethanol.
NOPA will release October crush figures at 11:00 today which could show a usage of 154.9 million bushel of soybeans.
The FSA prevent planted acres are the 2nd highest on record at 8.8 million acres. Average prevent planted is 2.5 to 3.0 million acres, therefore you would have to assume farmers could plant an additional 5 to 6 million acres in 2014 if weather conditions are normal. This maybe enough of a reason to think about protecting price on 2014/15 crops, talk to your Allendale representative.
Basis levels were steady to higher in the interior and at the gulf. Barge freight is strong as demand for barges has increased. Elevators along the river are full and now are turning to filling barges as near-term storage.
As of yesterday, Argentina bean planting progress is normal at about 22% of expected area. Corn planting is still behind normal at 42% planted.
Egypt bought French and Romanian wheat on their purchase of 240,000 tonnes. Japan bought 120,000 tonnes of food grade wheat, about half from the US, the rest from Canada and Australia.
The poultry industry has geared up for the cheaper feed cost since August by increasing layer herd size by 4.9%. The cattle industry is declining in numbers and the pork industry struggles with PEDv and production losses. Cash cattle trade is ready to wait until Friday as packer demand is very light and profit margins are calculated to be in the red. Choice beef was down .45 and select was up .03. The CME Feeder Index is at 165.25, down .25. December cattle futures are trying to work higher as traders hope for a steady to higher cash trade this week.
Lean Hog futures have seen fund and speculative liquidation this week. Yesterday the Dec contract found support at the 100 day moving average. Today 82.25 should provide first line of support. Pork cutout values were up 1.78 on Thursday.
Markets as of 5:00 AM
- Dec Corn +1
- Jan Beans -3
- Dec Wheat +3
- Dec Cattle +.07
- Dec Hogs +.27
- Dec Dlr +.04
- Dec S&P +3.25
- Dec Crude -.09
- Dec Gold -3.90
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