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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Can Grains Finish Strong After Early Week Losses

Sep 21, 2012

Good Morning! Steve Georgy with early morning comments for September 21, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are pushing higher and trying to gain back some of this week’s loss. As of Thursday’s close beans have seen a $1.19 drop eith corn falling 35 cents. Wheat was down almost 40 cents but has yet to break below key support. Traders are still concerned with the possibility of Russia capping export sales. We have seen some resent sales from Egypt and Iraq this week and Russia was the main seller. The market tends to find this information friendly even though the US is not involved. Wheat is the supporting factor for corn right now as we get through harvest. Export sales were once again negative for corn yesterday and show that we are not seeing demand pick up yet. Producers are becoming more active with harvest and we are hearing better yields than expected for both corn and beans. USDA’s last yield number for corn was just over 122 bpa with beans at 35.3. We are hearing analyst estimates coming in well above USDA’s last guess. Informa will release another estimate today near 10:30. Cattle futures are edging higher after cash cattle traded $1 lower yesterday. The trade was looking for prices to remain steady to $1 higher. Box beef has been strong all week as choice was up .07 and select gaining .29 yesterday. Hogs are trading higher this morning as well. Cash hogs are looking stronger this week and look to have recovered from some pretty negative prices last week. Cash hogs seasonally bounce for a few weeks as we get closer to "National Pork Month" in October. Hog futures are still trading above the cash markets but may benefit from a cash market rally. Sign up for the Monthly Allendale Ag Leaders Webinar next Tuesday evening at 8:00 pm.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Dec Corn    +4 1/2
Nov Beans   +7 1/2
Dec Wheat   +10 3/4
Oct Cattle +.05
Oct Hogs    +.50
Sep Dlr     -.27
Sep S+P     +3.50
Oct Crude   +.55
Dec Gold    +5.70
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Oct Live Cattle has now defined the 9/17 $125.05 low as the tightest risk level that this market must stay above to defer a peak and reversal threat. While we still are in an uptrend we should be concerned that we have seen momentum to the upside slow down at these levels…Frank La Placa 
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Next week’s grain stocks report marks the final ending stocks of the old crop marketing year. To make an estimate for it we subtract our estimates of usage in the June through August quarter from USDA’s previous June 1 stocks update.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
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