Can Grains Rally as Tour Week Comes to a Close?
Aug 22, 2014
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary at 5:30 am.
Grain futures are higher in a quiet overnight session. Tight old crop soybean supplies are providing buying incentive in the September futures. Corn and wheat are finding more prices adjusting in their established trading ranges.
Traders Focus Today: September option expiration, technical support and resistance, no weather forecast includes frost but the 10 to 15 runs suggest below normal temps.
Allendale 25th Annual Yield Survey is underway. We will be collecting data from you for 1 more week. You can add your farms information by going towww.allendale-inc.com. We will be releasing the results of the survey on September 3rd at 7:30 am.
Morning Coffee Commentary:
Technical support and resistance becomes important in corn because of the trading range that has been established. One has to assume stops are building just above resistance and just below support. Soybeans are drifting lower and notching new contract lows as rain falls across the Midwest. Old crop soybeans continue to get support from nearby demand.
Commercial buying in wheat against recent lows is providing support. However wheat has been the follower and any directional move in corn will likely drag it along.
ProFarmers Midwest crop Tour will be releasing their final survey estimates at 1:30 today. The tour results for Iowa were 178.75 compared to 171.94 bushels per acre last year. The Minnesota corn crop was projected at 170.76 down from last year’s 181.09 bushels per acre.
Canadian wheat production was below trade expectation. The 2014 production is 27.70 mmt verses last year’s 37.73 mmt. Canola output was down 22.6% from last year at 13.91 mmt.
Brazil’s largest co-operative released their plans to plant 8% more soybeans this year and reduce corn plantings by 151,000 hectares or about 9%.
Russia will allow imports from neighboring Belarus and Kazakhstan of food processed from Western raw materials as Moscow seeks to keep domestic food prices from rising after it had ban food imports from the West. This news has stirred some interest in lean hog futures buyers. The October contract had an outside day yesterday and a close above yesterday’s highs today could trigger more buying. Pork cutout values were down 1.07.
Cash cattle traded this week at 152 to 153. Futures are struggling with liquidation, technical selling and week beef demand going into the Labor Day holiday. Beef values are weak with choice down 1.09 and select down 2.25. The USDA cattle on feed report will be out this afternoon. The trade is looking for 97.4% on feed, 90.9% placed and 92.5% marketed. The CME Feeder Index is 218.27.
Markets as of 5:30 AM CDT
- Dec Corn + 1/4
- Nov Beans +5
- Sep Wheat +3
- Oct Cattle +.12
- Oct Hogs +.85
- Sep Dlr +.04
- Sep S&P -4.25
- Oct Crude -.44
- Oct Gold +7.70
Chart of the Day
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