Can grains rally without production taking a hit?
Jul 14, 2014
Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 14, 2014 at 5:30 am CDT.
Grain futures are lower on follow through selling after Friday’s report.
Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference "Summer Update" will start next. Get answers on the following topics: Temperature and Precipitation Outlook through Crop Maturity. US Harvest Weather outlook, what is the potential for Early Frost? Where is El Nino? South American Planting Weather Outlook and an update on price directions for grains and livestock markets.
The weather session takes place July 22nd at 2:00 PM CDT. The series will continue July 23rd and 24th at 2:00 pm with our grain and livestock outlooks. All sessions will be recorded for your viewing convenience.
After Fridays report traders are now focused on the 3.50 level for corn and soybeans below 10.00. Many are thinking ending stock will go up once USDA makes yield adjustments.
Crop conditions report out this afternoon where early estimates are for an unchanged to up 1% in the G/E categories. My out the window observations from this weekend: traveling to northwest IL and southwest WI, we saw corn and soybeans stressed from too much rain. However the sides of hills and tops were dark green. Corn will begin tasseling in that area this week.
I invite subscribers to listen to the Allendale weekly in-house broker meeting with Rich Nelson this afternoon. He will be breaking down the report and what it means to prices going forward.
CFTC commitment of traders report showed Managed Money Funds net long 107,600 contracts of corn which was a decrease of 5,412. They reduced long positions in soybeans by 20,062 last week to be net long 2,142. Funds also increased net short positions in wheat by 3,582 contracts to 44,296.
NOPA June crush data will be released tomorrow at 11:00 am. Trade is expecting 119.5 Mil. Bu. of soybeans used last month.
The economic calendar this week is filled with reports in the US and China that could have an impact on the stock market. Fed Chairman will present to Congress later this week and earnings reports by major companies get into full swing.
Cattle and hog futures reversed on Friday after a several day decline. Today trade will be watching product movement as well as changes in showlist for market ready cattle. Outside markets and money flow will be keys to maintaining uptrend in livestock markets. Beef values were mixed as they closed out the week with choice down .38 and select up 1.32. The CME Feeder Index is 214.58. Pork Cutout value was up .57.
Markets as of 5:30 AM CDT
- Sep Corn -1 3/4
- Aug Beans +6 1/4
- Sep Wheat + 3/4
- Aug Cattle Steady-Higher
- Aug Hogs Steady-Higher
- Sep Dlr -.05
- Sep S&P +6.25
- Aug Crude -.39
- Aug Gold -14.10
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