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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Can Markets Bounce Ahead Of USDA Report?

Aug 05, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for August 5, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are lower as bullish news is hard to find. Liquidation of the old crop/new crop spreads dominate the overnight session. The forecast is for crops to have a stress-free week. Many producers in the Dakotas are getting concerned about the below normal temps and the maturation process. Crop conditions this afternoon are expected to be steady or better than last week.

The CFTC Commitment of Traders Report on Friday showed non-commercial and non-reportable traders posted a combined record short position of 185,568 contracts. Managed Money Funds are now short 108,089 corn and 40,804 wheat. They reduced long soybeans by 34,152 to leave them net long 75,490 contracts.

The August USDA Reports will be out next Monday. It appears trade is starting to raise old crop ending stocks expectations. The Goldman Roll will start on Wednesday which means they will be moving long positions out of the September contract.

Cash cattle trade ended the week with light volume. It is likely the showlist number will increase however packers may be looking for a few more cattle. Boxed beef was mixed again on Friday with choice up .55 and select down .63. Futures have consolidated waiting for some positive news from either the cash market or the product. The Feeder Index is 149.49, up .48.

Cash hogs could start the week steady to lower as 3 plants will be dark today due to a rolling holiday. Pork cutout values were up 1.50 on Friday. The August futures will go off the board on August 14th. Currently, it is at a discount to the CME Lean Hog Index. For more details watch the Morning Coffee video around 8AM on

Weekly Poll Question:What change will the USDA make to yield on the August 12th Report? Take the poll here

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    -1 3/4
  • Nov Beans   – 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   + 1/4
  • Aug Cattle  Steady
  • Aug Hogs    Steady
  • Sep Dlr     -.11
  • Sep S&P     -.50
  • Sep Crude   -.57
  • Aug Gold    -.50


View Today’s Chart of the Day

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