Sep 23, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Can We See A Sell-Off In Soybeans Before Weekend?

May 23, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 23, 2014 at 4:15 am CDT.  

Grain futures are higher on follow through buying led by soybean complex.

Listen to Ryan Martin's Midday Weather Update

Soybean futures are overbought based on technical indicators. The news is old news with a different spin. South American beans continue to work into the US, the Chinese are auctioning off beans and the index roll out of the July contracts is just starting, export sales of old crop continue to be surprising and processor demand is strong.

The exports sales report yesterday morning was fuel that drove the July soybeans and meal to new highs. Traders view open weather as a chance for more corn less beans to be planted. Firm cash markets in soybeans continue to be underlying support. Funds were net buyers of 5,000 soybean and 2,000 meal contracts yesterday.

There have been 130,000 tonnes of South American soybeans already unloaded in the US and another 375,000 tonnes headed to us according to Brazilian port lineup.

Corn continues to struggle as farmers are making excellent planting progress. Driving back to Northern IL from the St Louis area yesterday, we saw fieldwork being done all along I55 and I39. Farmer selling of cash corn has been at a standstill while fieldwork can be done. If El Nino arrives in June, as is being touted, the Midwest crops should be on cruise control until harvest.

Biofuel groups expect the Environmental Protection Agency to send the final proposed targets to the White House as early as today.

Financial markets brace for weekend Ukraine election and new home sales are expected to rebound but remain well below recent 5-1/2 year high.

Wednesday’s 406,000 hog slaughter and Thursday’s run of 375,000 head was quite a bit under expectations. Is this the beginning of really tight supplies or because packers have reduced hours? Cash hogs were lower this week and pork cutout values are down 1.14.

Cash cattle traded in Kansas and Texas at $144. That was down $1 from last week. This was made despite the rise in choice and select beef this week of 5.91 and 4.71, respectively. Beef values on Thursday were higher with choice up .63 and select up 1.07. The CME Feeder Index is 188.45.

Markets as of 4:15 AM CDT          

  • Jul Corn    +2 3/4
  • Jul Beans   +6
  • Jul Wheat   +3    
  • Jun Cattle  -,22
  • Jun Hogs    -.75
  • Jun Dlr     +.14
  • Jun S&P     +.75
  • Jul Crude   -2.90
  • Jun Gold    +6.70

 Chart of the Day

daily chart

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