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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Can Wheat Carry The Load?

Oct 23, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 23, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are higher on short-covering. Corn remains in a 10 cent trading range for 7 sessions. Soybeans have pushed through breakout resistance at 13.06 while wheat continues to grind higher.

Trade is expecting a good sales number from USDA when they release the weekly sales data for week ending Oct. 3, on Thursday. EIA data should be released later this morning.

Weather in South America suggests good coverage for most of Brazil over the next 10 days however Argentina remains dry during this period. The 10 to 15 day forecast for Argentina provides more moisture for the region.

The supply bears are waiting for a confirmation of big yields from USDA on the November 8th S+D report. The demand bulls are hoping for some large sales numbers on Thursday and again on Oct 31st.

We'll discuss the market impact of lowering EPA's Renewable Fuel Standard in our next monthly webinar - 10/29/13 at 8:00 PM CDT. This is a no cost event, register here.  

November option expiration is on Friday and we have not received confirmation on when CFTC will release an update to the Commitment of Traders report.

The wheat supply and demand table suggests the world has a plentiful supply. However, the areas creating concern are the Black Sea region where prices have jumped nearly $100 a ton in a few weeks and in Argentina where inflation and lack of farmer selling is driving prices higher. This news is supporting prices at the CME. Technical buying is also a catalyst as nearby contracts break overhead resistance. Stay in touch with your Allendale Broker for strategies.

Cattle traders are getting hope from the stronger beef cutout values. Tuesday’s choice beef prices closed up 1.04 and select was up 1.38. The stronger beef values could give packers a reason to pay the 131 feedlots are asking this week.

Pork cutout values were down .15 as some retailers have turned to featuring pork as beef crossed the 2.00 mark again. As we move into November both beef and pork will take a back seat to turkey featuring. A close above the 89.00 level in Dec hog futures is needed to keep the uptrend going.

Call your Allendale Representative with question at 800-262-7538.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    +3 3/4
  • Nov Beans   +6 3/4
  • Dec Wheat   +6 1/4
  • Dec Cattle  +.27
  • Dec Hogs    +.00
  • Dec Dlr     +.07
  • Dec S&P     -10.00
  • Dec Crude   -1.12
  • Dec Gold    -10.70
Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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