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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

China News Shows Slowing Economy

Apr 13, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for April 13, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are mixed as talk of new purchases and Fed easing provide support to old crop corn and beans. China’s first quarter GDP grew at 8.1% which is the slowest in 3 years. This economic data is causing some profit taking in commodities this morning. Futures are still looking for some direction or reason to breakout of recent trading ranges. USDA gave us positive export numbers for old crop corn yesterday. The rumors have been circulating that China has bought additional old crop corn and soybeans. The USDA will release sales information this morning at 8:00 am. Pictures of crop damage due to frost have hit the internet. We do not believe there has been extensive damage. Rain is on its way to cover the Midwest with moisture over the next 5 days. Extended forecasts have warmed up the low temps for next week. Planting progress has been aggressive the last few days throughout the Corn Belt. Reports out of North Dakota where corn acres were going to increase indicate farmers have changed their minds. Due to the soil conditions, problems with getting certain varieties of seed corn, problems with fertilizer supplies and early planting possibilities, they are planting more spring wheat. Sunday night could be active as we will then know the rainfall coverage. Port conditions in Brazil still have logistics problems as the Port of Paranagua is reporting 25 day delay on loading. It is easy to see why world buyers would come to US for soybeans with that kind of delay. Cash cattle traded as high as 122 in the south this week. Packers continue to slow production as negative margins hit record highs. Futures have closed above downtrend and key moving averages which has provided a change in bias in the livestock complex. Boxed beef values decline again, Choice down .36 and select down .92. Pork cutout was down .71. The Allendale "Planting Special" 6 months for $99.00 will be available through April 20. Sign–up TODAY!
 
Markets as of 5:10 AM
May Corn    +1 3/4
May Beans   -2
May Wheat   -3/4
Apr Cattle -.15
Apr Hogs    -.475
Jun S&P     -6.50
Jun $ Ind   +.22
May Crude   -.53
June Gold   -7.60
 
Allendale Advanced Charts
Beans saw enough strength on Thursday that allowed a close near first resistance at 14.49. This is the highest close for the market since Sept. 9, 2011. For now the bulls remain in control but we still would not be surprised to see a significant correction.

 
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Weekly exports for corn came in at 976 tmt. This was well above the trade estimates of 650-850 tmt. Given this number we are still running a little behind the USDA’s expected sales for the year.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538 research@allendale-inc.comwww.allendale-inc.com
 
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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