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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Commodity Markets Are Quiet Overnight

Mar 12, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for March 12, 2012 at 5:10 am. Grain futures are slightly higher this morning. Now that the neutral USDA supply and demand report is out of the way, trade will be focusing on the rumor circulating Friday that China was buying US old crop corn. We will be waiting for any confirmation of a sale this week. It seems unlikely that China would be buying old crop but we will have to wait and see. In a few weeks the USDA will provide us with Prospective Plantings which promises to be a market mover. Allendale just completed the 23rd Annual Planting Intention Survey of our clients and listeners. We will release our findings this Friday March 16, 2012. Big thanks to all of you who helped us with the survey. Weather will be monitored closely as this growing season will be very important due to current tight ending stocks. In my travels this past weekend I saw a few farmers doing fieldwork and a fertilizer plant open on Sunday. The warm weather is getting this planting season started even if it is only March 11. Cattle futures closed weak on Friday and would expect more pressure this morning if outside markets are under pressure at 9:05. Beef was lower on Friday, choice was down 1.96 and select was down .59. Pork cutout values were down .46. These lower product values are suggesting there still is a problem moving meat at the retail counter. Follow Allendale on YouTube and Twitter or subscribe online and receive Allendale on your mobile phone.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
May Corn    +2          Apr Cattle stdy        Jun $ Index       -.11
May Beans   + 1/2       Apr Hogs    stdy       April Crude       -.79
May Wheat   +1/4       Jun S&P     -.75        June Gold         -4.70
Allendale Advanced Charts
May beans came within pennies of reaching objective from a Head and Shoulders bottom and closing out the session in a Doji day (where open and close is at the same price). Signals suggest a possible correction in the making.

Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
No changes at all were made to US soybean exports or crush. Considering the changes to South American production, USDA should have given US old crop exports a little boost. Though most of the SA production drop will benefit new crop US exports, at least a small amount should have been added to the old crop US. Ending stocks left unchanged at a large 275 million bushels. Traders will be disappointed in this report (bearish) but likely will not completely believe it.

Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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