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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Corn and Soybean Planting Pace Well ahead of Average

May 15, 2012


Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for May 15, 2012 at 5.10 am. Corn and soybeans futures are higher on short covering in the oversold grain complex. The USDA put corn planting progress at 87% versus 56% last year and 66% average. Soybean planting was within trade estimates with 46% complete. The weather forecast for the next 2 weeks should give farmers the chance to finish corn and soybean planting. There are a few traders touting a concern about it being too dry in some areas. Macro markets are the dominating factors as Greece’s inability to form a government after last week’s elections puts the EU bailout plan at risk. Greece also has a bond payment due which should help determine money flow. The CME expanded trading hours for grains will be starting next Sunday at 5:00 PM. Join Us May 22, 2012 for Ag Leaders Webinar as Rich Nelson, Allendale's Director of Research, examines potential grain acreage shifts and their impact on supply and futures ahead of USDA's big Grain Stocks report in June. We also will have Mike Kavanaugh, Agronomy Manager of AgriGold, to examine crop conditions and their corresponding yield potential. Frank LaPlaca will examine chart price projections. Register HERE! Boxed beef was higher on Monday with choice up 1.93 and select up 2.65. The slowdown in slaughter is finally having an effect on meat demand. The warmer weather over the weekend has helped the retail clearance of beef. Futures traders will be adjusting their positions ahead of Friday’s cattle on feed report. Technical action on Monday should provide further support today.
Check out the Allendale "Morning Coffee" on YouTube at 8:00AM.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    +6
Jly Beans   +18 3/4
Jly Wheat   +6 1/2
Jun Cattle +.52
Jun Hogs    +.42
Jun S&P     +9.50
Jun Dlr     -.07
May Crude   -.01
June Gold   -2.10
Here are just a few of the reports we follow and record historical data on:
Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s trade in the Dec Corn implies that the selling pressure could be slowing down. With the RSI* momentum indicator implying an "oversold" condition a close above the 5/10/12 $5.19 ¼ high is needed to confirm this as an applicable trading tool. However if the Dec Corn sees a sub $5.00 close further price protection is advised for producers.
RSI(Relative Strength Index is a technical tool used to gauge the strength of a market versus the closing prices of a given look back period. For our purposes yesterdays close vs. the close nine days ago. However trading decisions based only on the fact that a momentum indicators such as RSI are implying an oversold condition are foolish. That is why we need to see confirmation in pricing first in order to use RSI as an applicable trading tool.)
Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Soybean crush for the month of April totaled 131.708 million bushels according to this morning’s NOPA report. That was a little under the expectation of 134.8. Allendale does not call this bearish however as it represents a sharp 9% increase over last year. It is likely 2011/12 crush with total 1.660 billion as opposed to USDA’s current 1.645 estimate. 
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.


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