Sep 30, 2014
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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Corn Conditions Downgraded Soybeans Steady

Aug 05, 2014

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for August 5, 2014 at 4:30 am CDT.

Grain futures are lower after a strong technical performance on Monday. Weather forecasts are a little wetter from North Dakota to Wisconsin for the first week while the second week has more rain for the eastern Midwest.

Crop conditions for corn were downgraded by 2% to 73% good/excellent. Soybeans held steady at 71% good/excellent.

Allendale is looking forward to the 25th Annual Yield survey. We work with farmers, who estimate their own farms production. Nobody knows their farms potential production better than the farmer. The survey will start August 18 through August 29. Allendale will release the survey results on September 3 at 7:30 am.

Update - Morning Coffee Commentary:


Brazil’s soybean plantings will likely increase by 4.9 percent next season says analysts AgRural. With normal weather conditions, the crop that will be planted starting in September could yield 94 million tonnes of soy, (USDA 91 mmt) surpassing this year’s record 85.6 million tonnes.

Rabobank lowers price projections for the Oct-Dec period by 57 cents per bushel to $3.50. This implies further downside and would be the weakest quarter since the April-June period of 2010. They are citing the reason for the reduction to low temperatures during July and strong second quarter precipitation.

FC Stone corn yield estimate was 172.4 bushel per acre and soybean yield was 46.0 bushel per acre. Corn production estimate is 14.455 billion bu. and soybeans 3.865 billion bu.

Economic reports out today: EIA report, Factory orders data and the ISM non-manufacturing index.

Fed cattle showlist increased in Nebraska by 36,000 head while CO, TX and KS fall short of last week. Feeder cattle put in an outside day up on Monday which usually is a friendly sign for prices. Beef values are steady-weaker with choice up .09 and select down .09. The CME Feeder Index is 225.68.

Lean hog futures rally after nearly 2 weeks straight of lower closes. The discount of futures to cash is providing some buying interest for futures. Heavy weights seem to be the concern in the pork complex as hog numbers are expected as much as 10% less than a year ago during Aug-Sep period. Pork cutout values rebound by .50 on Monday.

Markets as of 4:30 AM CDT          

  • Dec Corn   -2 1/4  
  • Nov Beans   -10
  • Sep Wheat   -1 1/2
  • Oct Cattle  +.65
  • Oct Hogs    -.57
  • Sep Dlr     +.08
  • Sep S&P     -1.00
  • Sep Crude   +.16
  • Oct Gold   +4.70

Chart of the Day

daily chart

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