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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Corn Conditions Drop 7% This Week

Jun 26, 2012

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for June 26, 2012 at 5:10 am. Corn and soybean futures are mixed. We are seeing some profit taking after yesterday’s sharp rally. How many different ways can we write about the weather? It is dry to extremely dry in much of the Midwest. There will be a blast of heat moving across the corn and soybean growing areas later this week. Just in time for the peak pollination of the early planted corn. Crop conditions fell sharply for corn. G/E was down 7% to 56% and the states of IN and IL fell to 27% and 37%, respectively. Soybean conditions fell by 3% nationally to 53%. IN and IL had ratings of 24% and 35% G/E. The weather models have been very inconsistent which has traders and producers waiting to see the rain before they get their hopes up. Rich Nelson says this could be the 3rd warmest growing season in recent years. Rich will discuss the details of his yield study tonight in the Ag Leaders Webinar. Futures put in a strong performance on Monday with funds buying 21,000 contracts of corn, 12.000 contracts of soybeans and 8,000 contracts of wheat. Commodity markets other than grains have been under selling pressure due to the macro-economic issues in the EU. The Greek Finance Minister resigned after 4 days on the job and the EU Leaders summit this weekend is expected to result in rhetoric and no substance. We have an important economic report each day this week and the big USDA Acreage Report on Friday morning. Cattle futures have been under pressure as dry weather drives herds into feedyards. Boxed beef was slightly lower on Monday with choice down .20 and select down .06. Pork carcass values continue to grind higher as it was up .48. Sign up now and send questions you have for Drew Lerner and Rich Nelson in the LIVE webinar at 8:00 pm this evening.
Markets as of 5:10 AM
Jly Corn    +4 1/4
Jly Beans   -2
Jly Wheat   -13 1/2
Aug Cattle +.02
Jly Hogs    -.20
Sep S&P     +3.75
Sep Dlr     -.16
Jly Crude   +.10
Aug Gold    -3.50
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Allendale Advanced Charts
Yesterday’s breakaway gap higher opening in the Nov. Soybeans has leaped the $14.00 hurdle that has kept a lid on this market to this point. Since this is new contract highs zero levels of resistance exist to slow this market down going forward. The $14.00 level is now old resistance turned support that should put a floor under this market going forward.

Get technical analysis for corn, beans, wheat, cattle, hogs, crude and dollar markets.
Nelson Notes from the desk of Rich Nelson
Allendale’s model suggests the states of Illinois (#2) and Indiana (#5) are in active early pollination. The hot and dry 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts give guidance all the way out to July 8. We had expected yields, which were 159.7 on June 11 to fall to 153 by July 9. We will now have to lower than expectation.
Contact Allendale: 800-262-7538
There is a significant risk of loss when trading futures and options contracts. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named, and each investor should consider the appropriateness of trading on this information, based on their objectives. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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