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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Corn Harvest Begins in the South

Jul 31, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for July 31, 2013 at 5:00 am. Grain futures are mixed with spreading a dominating market mover. Buying old crop, selling new crop corn is again being supported by tight supplies.

Cash market basis for corn and soybeans improved at processors across the Midwest late yesterday. The lack of farmer selling and processors accessing needs and realizing that harvest is still 6 to 8 weeks away. It is expected that farmers will be anxious to harvest early and take advantage of basis premiums. Elevators will likely offer incentives such as free drying to get corn early. Some of our TX customers are already harvesting corn.

Weather conditions continue to improve as temps are expected to remain below normal for a few more days. The moisture moving across the cornbelt this week should reduce crop stress areas. Traders are already trying to analyze the effect of an early frost, however, the next big event is the August 12 Crop Production Report. Where will USDA put their yield estimate? Their trend yield is 163.6 and last month they used 156.6. More discussion on this subject as we get closer to report release date.

Futures are oversold but as one trader said “Why should I buy it?” There were no deliveries against the August contract in soybeans or meal however soyoil had 846 deliveries through July 19, 2013.

Cattle market is looking for any positive news to push prices above the 127 resistance area in the October contract. This market has been stuck in a sideways range for some time. Product values for the last 3 years have had sharp rallies into the third week of August. Can it happen again in 2013? Boxed beef was mixed with choice up .37 and select down .56. The CME Feeder Cattle index is 148.31 up .66. The cash hog markets came under pressure this week as the IA/MN market is down several dollars. Seasonally hog supplies are expected to grow. Pork cutout values were up 1.24 on Tuesday due to reduced slaughter. Sign up for a free trail to the Allendale Advisory Report.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn -1 1/2
  • Nov Beans +2 1/4
  • Sep Wheat +2 1/4
  • Aug Cattle +.12
  • Aug Hogs +37
  • Sep Dlr -.05
  • Sep S&P +1.50
  • Sep Crude +.33
  • Aug Gold +8.00

View Today’s Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

 
 
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