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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Corn Harvest Gets Underway and Affects Basis

Sep 09, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for September 9, 2013 at 5:00 am.  Grain futures are mixed with corn lower and soybeans higher. Rains hit some areas over the weekend but not as good of coverage as forecasted. There are more spotty rains expected this week across the cornbelt. The second week of the forecast is a little drier than Fridays view. Crop stress will continue this week as temps warm up again.

Trade is looking for a 2-3% decline in US corn rating this afternoon and a 4-5% cut in the soybean rating from last weeks54% G/E.

Harvest started in the eastern cornbelt and processors dropped bids sharply on Friday. Soybean basis was mostly steady with a few plants lowering bids by 20 cents.

China imported 6.37 million tonnes of soybeans during August which is down from the 7.20 million tonnes in July.

There were 4 more corn deliveries which makes the next available date March 28, 2013.

Several buying groups out of South Korea have bought a total of 263,000 tonnes of corn; all of it was optional origin. One of the South Korean buyers is look for another 140,000 tonnes.

The weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed Managed Money increasing long positions in the entire soybean complex. They increased short positions in corn and wheat.

The September grain contracts will go off the board on Friday. The USDA Crop Production report will be released on Thursday at 11:00 AM.

Technical numbers to watch this week are the 50 Day moving average in Dec corn which crosses today at 4.84;  November soybeans are in a trading range with support at chart gap 13.31 and resistance at contract highs 14.09 ½.

Will the funds be back buying the pork complex and causing more short covering in nearby lean hog contracts? They pushed the hog futures up for six straight sessions. Pork cutout values were up .68 on Friday. Beef values remain sluggish as beef cutout values were lower. Choice beef was down .63 and select was down .72. The CME feeder index was set at 156.36 up .28.

Look for a choppy week as traders adjust for weather forecasts, USDA reports and outside economic news.

Markets as of 5:00 AM

  • Dec Corn    -1 3/4
  • Nov Beans   +7 1/4
  • Sep Wheat   -3 3/4
  • Oct Cattle  Steady-Higher
  • Oct Hogs    Steady-Higher
  • Sep Dlr     -.05
  • Sep S&P     +3.25
  • Oct Crude   -.45
  • Oct Gold    -.20

 

View the Chart of the Day

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