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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy,

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.

Corn Harvest Jumps 20% In One Week

Oct 29, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for October 29, 2013 at 4:45 am.  Grain futures are mixed as soybeans and wheat are higher and corn is slightly lower.

Traders are looking for "Turnaround Tuesday" to help support the grain markets. Technical damage to the chart picture on Monday has traders cautious as fundamental news is continuing to weigh on price projections.

The week ahead has more uncertainty with the FOMC meeting today and tomorrow. Thursday, the USDA will give us an update to export sales for the month of October. Thursday is also first notice day for November beans and then the USDA Supply and Demand Report is a little over a week away.

USDA says corn harvest is 59% complete which is a weekly increase of 20%. This is only the 4th time US farmers have harvested 20% or more in 1 week. Soybean harvest stands at 77% done which is a 14% increase from last week.

Trade analysts are starting to share their estimates for the Nov 8th report. There have been some average corn yields being tossed around as high as 162 bushels per acre. Informa is expected to release their estimates later this week.

The CFTC will hold a public hearing on the residual interest rule which if implemented could institute an increase in margin requirement for market participants.

Allendale’s Ag Leaders Webinar for October is scheduled for this evening, sign-up today.

Beef cutout values jumped on Monday as choice was up 2.15 and select was up 2.10. CME Feeder index was up .26 to 165.33. Tight, fed cattle supplies are providing support to live cattle futures. Traders are expecting cash cattle to post new all-time highs this week.

Lean Hog futures are on fire as the trade tries to get a handle on the effects of the PED virus. Current hog slaughter is running 5 to 6% below what the last USDA Hogs and Pigs Report would suggest. The effects of the PED virus is not expected to affect slaughter supplies until late in the 4th quarter; this uncertainty is definitely driving prices. Pork cutout was up .48 on Monday.

Markets as of 4:45 AM

  • Dec Corn    – 3/4
  • Nov Beans   +1 1/4
  • Dec Wheat   +1 3/4
  • Dec Cattle  -.05
  • Dec Hogs    -.22
  • Dec Dlr     +.22
  • Dec S&P     -.75
  • Dec Crude   -.44
  • Dec Gold    -6.50
Chart of the Day

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