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The Allendale Wake-Up Call

RSS By: Paul Georgy, AgWeb.com

Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
 

Corn Leads The Charge For Third Day

Nov 12, 2013

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with early morning comments for November 12, 2013 at 4:30 am.  Grain futures are higher.

Corn futures have now bounced over 20 cents off the low made on Friday. The USDA has given the market data that will be traded until the December report. According to Rich Nelson, Allendale’s Chief Strategist, the long-term picture still points to a target of 3.60 to 3.90 however short term factors have to be considered. Watch for large speculative short cover, weak shorts that are rushing to cover positions, aggressive export demand and lack of farmer selling going into year end. Stay tuned to the Allendale Advisory Report or contact your Allendale representative for strategies that fit your needs.

Weather conditions in the US have dropped snow over parts of the Midwest but should clear out in a few days then giving producers the chance to finish up harvest. The harvest progress report will be released this afternoon due to the Veterans Day holiday.

The only problem with South American weather is that it is too ideal right now. There is a long growing season ahead. Planting is progressing between rains with excellent field conditions.

Illinois River basis was under pressure on Monday as barge freight rises and farmer selling picks up on futures rally.

Funds bought an estimated net 12,000 corn contracts, sold net 4,000 wheat and bought 4,000 soybean contracts on Monday.

Ethanol producers are continuing to work with the Obama Administration and trying to convince the EPA to not lower the mandate. Many are expecting an announcement from the EPA this week.

Cash cattle were traded at 132 late on Friday which gives futures traders hope that we could see steady to higher this week. No product data was released on Monday. Retailer demand is being watched closely going into the end of November. The mention of snow in the forecast is keeping traders cautious about being short cattle futures especially with tight fed cattle supplies. CME Feeder Index is 165.44 up .02.

Cash hogs supplies are in question as we are getting into a period where the PEDv losses could begin to impact market ready numbers. Cash hog index is now below December futures.

Markets as of 4:30 AM

  • Dec Corn    +2 1/2
  • Jan Beans   +5 1/2
  • Dec Wheat   +4
  • Dec Cattle  -.05
  • Dec Hogs    -.10
  • Dec Dlr     +.22
  • Dec S&P     -3.00
  • Dec Crude   -.48
  • Dec Gold    -.50
Chart of the Day

If you have any questions on any of our material, give us a call at 800-262-7538 or email us at service@allendale-inc.com

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